Let us suppose that after the election, the Tories will be the largest party in the Commons but without an overall majority. David Cameron, as the incumbent Prime Minister and leader of the largest party, will try to form another government. Whatever may be said of Cameron as Prime Minister, he is an extremely canny and successful political operator. The problem that will confront him will be much the same as last time round, and last time round his solution worked brilliantly. By forming a coalition with the Lib-Dems, he gave himself and his friends a secure five years in office and he destroyed, perhaps finally, one of the two opposition parties.
He is likely to attempt the same manoeuvre again. But the Lib-Dems will no longer be there in sufficient numbers to be of any use to him. UKIP? Cameron is terrified of Nigel and even if Nigel agreed to a coalition, he would never agree to Nigel having a place in the cabinet. Besides, Nigel would not agree to a coalition. He would agree to give informal support but only in exchange for an immediate and fair EU referendum.
If he agreed to Nigel’s condition and the referendum result went against continued EU membership, Cameron would be faced with the distasteful task of either withdrawing from the EU, with all the attendant complications, or (more likely) fudging things, delaying and wangling in the usual EU manner. And tired of UK awkwardness, Brussels would probably not make things any easier for him.
Whatever the result of the referendum, the bargain would have reached its term and UKIP support in the Commons would no longer be assured on the same basis. No, UKIP will not look like an attractive partner to David Cameron.
The SNP say now that they would never work with the Tories. Perhaps they would, but only in exchange for immediate Scottish independence or something very much like it.
Who else is there? Well, of course, an excellent partner exists. It’s true, the partner is the traditional enemy. But the Labour party is also now a party of the Establishment. The Labour Party has no more desire to upset the political apple cart than Cameron has. A Con-Lab coalition would be a stable, unchallengeable government, with five years of assured power before it. Ten years isn’t a bad record for a Prime Minister….
In the event of a hung parliament this year, if the Conservatives are the largest party, Cameron will probably choose the Con-Lab option, if only it is possible. The only question is whether or not it will be possible.
It will not be the first time that Labour and Conservative politicians have worked together in coalition. The financial crisis of 1931 resulted in a National Government, headed first by the Labour leader Ramsay MacDonald, then by Baldwin, then Chamberlain. The National Government started to look more and more like a Conservative government and it was never supported by most of the Labour Party, but it always drew on both National Liberal and National Labour support. It was followed by Churchill’s wartime cabinet, so that Britain had an all-party government of sorts from 1931 to 1945.
Could Cameron carry his party with him? Certainly, not all of it, but probably most of it, enough to make up the Tory share of the necessary overall majority. There will be jobs and opportunities for these who follow the Cameron way, the wilderness for those who do not.
Could Cameron get Labour support at the top – from Miliband or some other leader – and enough of the rank and file to make up the balance of the necessary numbers?
There is not much left of old pre-Blair Labour. Labour has lost its working-class roots and relies now almost entirely on recruitment from the professional political class and the public sector. Most Labour MPs are in it for themselves. Except for a few old-timers nearing retirement and no longer ambitious, most of the Labour party in the Commons might well respond favourably to Cameron’s initiative. They have had five years in the wilderness – enough for any aspiring politician. Given leadership from enough members of their Front Bench – the ones who would be getting places in the Cabinet – they would mostly go along with it.
So if David Cameron has his way, a Con-Lab coalition, may be formed after the election. Have discussions already taken place? Probably. But of course we shall not hear much about them yet.
Why is this prospect so seldom mentioned? Because the coalition idea is likely to arouse serious opposition at the grass roots level in both establishment parties. At that level, both Labour and Conservative support is sustained by mutual antagonism. Conservatives hate organised Labour and Labour supporters hate Tory big business and toffery. A ConLab coalition is the one thing which might destroy or seriously weaken those obstinate tribal loyalties which perpetuate irrational support for the two establishment parties. This would make UKIP’s task much easier in 2020.
Malcolm- We have to look at the bigger picture here. We know that Cameron will never give us the in out vote we want on the EU. By foul means he will renege on the terms of any vote and then obfuscate until we become demented. What we can usefully do is to start to build the argument, that must be watertight, for an EU exit. Many of those that support an EU exit will be easily discouraged if the YES campaign, which we know will be disproportionately represented, do not receive an equally measured reason from UKIP for leaving the EU. This means that UKIP must become stronger and appeal to everyone across the board, young, old, all ethnicities. I don’t think that there has ever been a more important time in the history of the Nation. 2020 will give UKIP the time to plan a successful strategy.
I really hope you are correct Mike ,but we need to get all those who voted for us in the EU elections to stay with us and I do not think they will if we tell them to vote Tory if we do not look like getting in . This just plays into the other parties propaganda and the anti UKIP media .
So you think we will be OK in 2020 . Sounds like you have written us off for 2015 and yes why is Nigel telling us to vote tory where we can`t win ? This alienates those who have joined us from other parties and is likely to drive them back from whence they came . Now we read that Mark Reckless is way behind in the polls and likely to lose his seat ! Looks like we are falling apart .
We need to convince people to vote how they feel and not vote to try and stop a potential outcome .
I personally think Ukip are going to do astonishingly well in this election. It doesn’t matter what the polls say. People don’t always tell the pollsters their true intentions and sometimes they just don’t know themselves how they will vote. But astonishingly well or not quite so well, Ukip will do much better than the established parties expect, and this, along with the success of the SNP, will give both Labour and Tories the shock of their lives.
This shock will encourage them to close ranks and in the longer term, this will be good for UKIP because a ConLab coalition will alienate the grass roots supporters of both major parties.
It will be wonderful to see some UKIP MPs this year but in another five years we might even achieve a parliamentary majority. Then and only then will we see real change in Britain.
You could argue that this is a “steady as you go” scenario. Why legislate when you do not need to legislate. We have enough law as it is. The parties LabCon need only agree (and they do) and vote on things like Trident and NHS funding. It might also give them the opportunity to sort out the constitutional mess. I suspect though that tribalism will win out and any initial arrangement will soon descend into farce..
Sorry MIke, you lost me at the first paragraph with the nonsense about “Cameron is an extremely able politican with a first rate track record”?
Where? In his own mind?
Thanks for your comment. I’ve asked for the wording to be changed to make my meaning clearer. It wasn’t a compliment!
Mike
Thanks – I bet you had several people double-taking that!!
If your reasoning leads to a coalition of Tory-Labour, I can only ask;- What would be different to any of them in coalition, or winning alone?
And as for the EU being fed-up with British intransigent, if I might use the phrase; -Don’t forget who is one of the biggest main contributors to its budget, and what they would be left with, when we leave.
The lack of using our advantages within the EU is one of the reasons we should leave. We pay, they make the rules. Poor deal.
The voting public have reacted strongly against the LibDems being in coalition with the Tories. What would their reaction be to a ConLab coalition? I think it would lead to the near demise of both parties in 2020.
Après Cameron la deluge!
Good point that a possible Con-Lab coalition isn’t much talked about, certainly not in the opinion sections of the MSM, never mind in their GE ‘reports’.
That should set alarm bells ringing, because we can be certain that some in both parties will have thought about this and will have talked about this with their opposite parts. In secret, naturally.
I don’t know how this would play in the country. LibDems were acceptable, sort of, thanks to Clegg’s perfomance. Times are however different – and I believe that large numbers of people, even those voting tribally, would be revolted by seeing their party leaders chuck away even the last vestiges of being different, just to stay in power or get power.
I have the suspicion that such coalition may lead to a very hot summer in our towns and cities.
Why is Nigel Farage telling people to vote Tory ?
This was an article in the Daily Mail, who will seize on anything to do down UKIP and support the Tories. Patrick O’Flynn has denied the report.