The excitement of the EU Elections is beginning to fade and the winners are thinking “now what?”, and the losers are thinking, in modern text, “OMG”.
The BBC spent the time from 10pm on Sunday through to late afternoon Monday trying to propagate the belief that the Liberals together with the Greens won the election. That was because they couldn’t acknowledge that the Brexit Party had done almost as well as prior predictions and the two main parties were holed up trying to recover from a knockout.
The Conservative Party
Even Theresa May agreeing on the brink of election day to stand down on 7 June wasn’t enough to bring back disenfranchised voters who had decided to support The Brexit Party (TBP). The Tories now face a leadership contest for which there will be no winner!
If the apparent winner is another Remainer, the Leavers will walk triggering a general election and the 80% of Leave party members will continue to support TBP. If the winner is a Leaver the Remainers will walk or trigger a vote of no confidence, again bringing down the government. I cannot understand why so many prominent members of the Tory Party want to become the leader of a party that is facing oblivion. It might not even be big enough to be the official opposition.
The split in the Tory Party cannot be reconciled in a way for them to hold it together till 31st October as the Remainers will not allow us to Leave on WTO rules. If they try to hold it together with duct tape there just is no chance that, as Jeremy Hunt suggested, they could tear up the so called Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and create a new plan. Either the Commons wouldn’t support it or the EU wouldn’t allow it as their present plan is in their best interest to take over the governance of the UK.
In a general election, with the Tory Party still trying to hold it together, we would likely see a repeat of the recent election BUT I don’t think TBP would do anything like as well because the electorate always have been largely tribal in general elections. Nevertheless, maybe as many as a hundred Tory MPs will lose their seats.
Their only option for Tory Leave MPs to survive and possibly to become part of a subsequent government is to defect to TBP. If all the Leavers did that it would give TBP upwards of 50 MPs as a starting position and could catapult it as the party of government. Then the arithmetic in the Commons changes in Brexit’s favour and we get to Leave on WTO terms.
The Labour Party
Frankly I wasn’t expecting the Labour Party to suffer as much as it did BUT voters don’t like voting for fence sitters and those trying to be everything to everybody because they know their vote could then be used opposite to their wish. Now the party is frantically trying to reposition itself having lost at least 5% of their vote to the Liberals.
If they now firm up on a second referendum to win back that support from the Liberals they will disenfranchise the considerable numbers of grassroots supporters who actually want us to Leave the EU. They will split the party just as badly as the Tories and who would then vote for them if they can change clothes so quickly?
It would become even clearer than it is now that they don’t really want IN or OUT, they just want power. With present polling they don’t want a general election now either as they would get crucified, as has happened in Scotland and Wales.
The Liberal Party
Didn’t they do well! The massive increase in their vote would have come from both Tory and Labour Remainers and floating voters to a party, thanks to a clear and simple message the party has projected for three years. It would not be enough if the percentage holds up, though, to put them into government unless of course they went into coalition with the Greens.
They are natural buddies with the Greens and I have often wondered why they haven’t already merged. Both are actually far left, supporting hard socialism in the form of global governance. Both are avid supporters of Climate Change (as it is now called so that it doesn’t really matter if the Earth warms or not.)
If you remember as part of the coalition government how Ed Davey as Secretary for State for The Environment and Climate Change helped bring about the revolution from cheap continuous generation fossil fuels to expensive intermittent wind farms.
Ed is a contender for the leadership when Vince steps down but is hampered by the fact that he is a white male and in the interest of equality he is less than equal to Jo Swinson. She would actually be better because she is so amenable whereas he is just so abrasive, having been produced in the Neil Kinnock school of political compromise.
If Labour adopts the second referendum policy it will inevitably take back a considerable chunk of recent Liberal gains and deprive it of having sufficient MPs even with the support of Greens to form a government. I cannot see Tory Remain MPs siding with the Liberals because of the total incompatibility of economic aspirations.
The Green Party
Didn’t they do well also! Of course the Green vote was heavily subscribed by young people who have had continuous propaganda through the national curriculum, together with a blitz of programs in the run up to the election by David Attenborough with Planet 2, and the Blue Planet.
Also, with teachers encouraging students to skip class and protest about climate change, maybe half the 12.4% of the Green vote had nothing to do with a 2nd referendum and more to do with attacking the older generations for buggering up their beautiful planet.
Over the next five years their numbers are likely to grow BUT as they become ever more fanatical about climate change and their demands continue making a negative impact on ordinary folks lives they may well lose some of the luvvy dovey support they presently enjoy, just like what happened to Greenpeace.
The Brexit Party
Didn’t we do well! Nigel was so clever not to have any other policy at this time as it would only have allowed the other parties and MSM to try and belittle our cause by attacking it round the edges. Without a doubt we have stolen the grassroots Tory support as well as some previously floating voters who have been awakened from apathy by the Leave cause.
If it was possible that the Tory Party could hold itself together and have a Leave leader and get us out of the EU on any favourable terms or by default on WTO terms then our primary cause and supporters would evaporate.
I am not sure that Nigel actually wants to be an MP in Westminster. He loves grandstanding and walking the stage with his radio mike and wallowing in the audience approval. Similarly he loves winding up the rest of the MEPs in the EU Parliament. If we achieved our primary goal would he just walk away again?
If we could get some defections from the Tories and maybe Labour as well then we stand a good chance of becoming the largest party at a general election before the end of this year. Bearing in mind that we have support from across the political spectrum, how would the party resolve an economic policy.
Would the party be torn between living within our means, normally referred to as austerity, or would we go as all other parties have done since 1948 and offer the electorate ever increasing health and welfare benefits that are unsustainable. At least if we are to leave the EU the UK could return our health service from being the Inter-National Health Service to just the NHS again.
It would be nice to believe TBP could take the centre ground of British politics that has been barren for decades since Edward Heath moved the Tories from it in 1972 and no-one yet has filled that void.