I don’t want to be branded as a conspiracy theorist, but I study what’s going on, research it, think about it, and draw conclusions. And what I see going on right now in the mainstream media, and from the lips of LibLabCon politicians, is a consistent “narrative” which is based on the premise of:
“UKIP is still a minority party, who have quite a few fruitcakes in their ranks, whose policies aren’t well formed, who have some nasty tendencies and whose voters will desert them for us in the election.”
Try it, test everything you see in the media against that “narrative” (with some notable exceptions such as the Express and Star on a good day, and Breitbart on most days) and I think my point is proven.
What is a “narrative”? It’s a “line” that a group of vested interests want followed. In the case of what we are seeing right now that vested interest group comprises LibLabCon and a vast chunk of the mainstream media, together with some pressure groups. These used to be divided into left and right camps, but they seem to be united in one objective: negating the threat to both their sides from UKIP.
However, if UKIP support is as low as they would have us believe, what’s the threat? The polls say 15%, the pundits say 1 to 5 seats. Some threat! That interpretation in itself proves the existence of that “narrative” and the reality of our threat to them.
Let me cite an example: the storm in a teacup over our immigration policy. They have latched onto every single number that Nigel Farage, Stephen Woolfe and others have mentioned in relation to immigration numbers. They have attacked us for not knowing what we want, while missing the elephant in the room – immigration is at such a large figure now, around ten times what it had been in the preceding 50 years, that we cannot manage the growth in population effectively in terms of its impact on housing, schools, hospitals, road and jobs. Nigel even mentioned a range of 20,000-50,000, and they still attacked him saying that if it went over 50,000 then he would have failed.
Give it a rest, MSM, the British people know the difference between six figures (200,000 to 500,000) and five figures (20,000 to 50,000) – whatever the numbers it’s in the order of a factor of 10!
And then this morning, with leftie Mishall Husain on Radio 4’s Today programme, laying into Nigel about the things some UKIPpers have said. She would not give it a rest, shouting down Nigel, cutting off his mentions of LibLabCon actual criminals, pursuing her own “narrative”. There has been a Twitter storm over her this morning – the BBC trying to create news rather than reporting it, totally ignoring our prompt action in dealing with what otherwise would be minor indiscretions.
One of the main weapons in presenting their “narrative” to counter UKIP’s threat is opinion polling. Bear in mind that some of the pollsters are themselves politically motivated (YouGov under Peter Kellner and Ashcroft under Lord), but the rest have politically motivated paymasters (the MSM). They will give the answers that their paymasters want them to. I have already written numerous articles presenting the various factors they CAN use (and often DO use, and can be proven they use) to manipulate what we see in the papers, for example in Conspiracy or Something Less Sinister.
Here’s another technique. I can’t prove it, but I can see how they have the means to do it, and they certainly have the motive to use it, so it is within the bounds of possibility it is being used. My evidence is circumstantial, one example based on my own experience, but it set me thinking.
One day my landline rang around 6PM. It was a pollster doing a political poll. They didn’t ask my name, just my age and sex. They asked, “Is there a female 35-50 in the house?” My reply (as a divorced ‘slightly’ older man) was, “Chance would be a fine thing.”
A week later, the phone rang again: the same pollster. This time they wanted a male 25-35. “Sorry, no dice, my son isn’t here right now,” was my answer.
Another week, and bingo, they wanted a male in my age group. I answered their questions: “100% certain to vote”, “Other” (no UKIP prompt), “UKIP”, “UKIP”, “UKIP” to their various voting intention questions and that was it.
Never heard from them again.
Now, it could just be that once when they’ve used a respondent, they never recall them. I don’t think so though. After I replied, I could hear a keyboard tapping – they captured all my answers, of course, with my age/sex group. They don’t ask which socio-economic “class” you are as they assume that from the postcode, which they work out from the telephone number.
So, they have a database of phone numbers, different people in that house (by age/sex division which normally discriminates the different members of a household) and their answers. They therefore have the means of picking and choosing who they call next time, for the next poll.
Do, I have to explain any more? The customer says, “I want to see UKIP fall in the polls this week, around 12-14%,” and that’s what they get.
As I said, they have the means and the motive. Are they using it? I think we can safely say they are as when UKIP commissions constituency polls, the results are markedly different from what Ashcroft constituency polls say, for example.
So, what happens when this “narrative” fails? Other polls (more secret ones, I am surmising) will show “the establishment” the true level of support. If I am right, around 26th April you’ll see the polls start to rise in UKIP’s favour, as the pollsters will need to hedge their bets, as will their establishment paymasters. The kind of headlines we will see are:
Inexplicable Rise of UKIP in Polls
And if that happens, what we can also expect is a torrent of both regurgitated and fresh smear stories on UKIP in the final week. Be ready to man the ramparts. Of course, the “narrative” has already been written:
“Oh, look, you silly misguided voters, you’re all flocking to this bunch of fruitcakes and nasty people. We really think you should change your mind and vote for a sensible party like LibLabCon.”
As has been said already – this will be dirtiest election campaign that’s ever been fought.
My own anecdotal evidence would suggest that they do this online too. I am on the YouGov panel, and used to get asked political questions. But since I declared my intention to vote for UKIP they have stopped asking me political questions. I get plenty of questions about my favourite brands of confectionery, and what electrical goods I have bought in the last 12 months though!
The polls are rigged (weighted to take into account past voting), so that they can get away with rigging the actual election. Time to vote with our hearts and never trust the Lib Lab Con again, because they will always betray us.
A very good article that reflects what most of us are thinking. And poll fixing (there is no other phrase) will get worse as May 7 gets closer. My hunch, though, is that the pollsters, no matter how they try their cynical manipulation techniques, will be about as successful as King Canute. The tide has turned, and it’s a powerful Spring tide at that.
‘UKIP is slipping in the polls’, ‘UKIP has peaked’. These are the narrative that the liblabcon and msm are pushing’. UKIP are also being ignored in themsm in order to make it look like they are an irrelevance. Cameron And miliband are talking about trivia and not the real subjects that need to be put right. The elephants in the room are the EU AND IMMIGRATION, but the liblabcon and msm will not debate them because they know they onto a loser if they do.
It’s not a theory its is a planned and well orchestrated campaign to belittle UKIP supporters.
Unfortunately, I haven’t had any political campaigners polling my opinion on my doorstep. But a very good friend of ours has.
The Labour activist asked who she was planning to vote for and she said ‘I am voting for our Nige!’, from that point on she was treated as an inhuman specimen, smelling faintly of ordure.
Then came the fake surprise…’Oh really? your the first person I have come across who is planning to vote for that band of racists!!’
Now, I know the person and she knows her neighbours and to a person they are voting UKIP in May.
But apparently this is the new process….’gosh, your voting for them, well you’re on your own!’
It’s a good ploy. If it wasn’t for the fact that it was an obvious lie, it might actually work.
Labour are the worse. A party made of haters, liars and hypocrites
The outcome of the snap polls on the Leader’s Debate tonight tended to confirm that such a narrative exists. When UKIP is given a fair chance to compete with the others on a level playing field we can match if not beat them!
And well done Julia Somerville for managing an utterly unbiased and balanced presentation. The BBC could never have managed that
Did you see The Times has rubbished Great Yarmouth now today. That is Clacton , South Thanet and Great Yarmouth they have quit on already. Thurrock will be next. That is 4 we look good for already as the Professor said the other day.
Let’s just take their narrative as a clear indication that they are running scared.
I am not buying it. When an ‘MP’ was canvassing the other day at a station I get off who was never seen in 2010 and has a 16,000 majority and Labour are nowhere you know something is up.
I have put this on another site .Last time 20 million tuned in.To night i reckon that will be smashed. then when it comes to Just the 3 main parties debate it will be the lowest. has it is all the same old spin lies
, same promises that never come to be done,or carried out.
Reading local newspapers across the country, whenever they do a poll UKIP always does well. Pounding the streets canvassing in my local area UKIP are doing well. Reading national newspapers and listening to the radio and TV seeing how the media constantly deride UKIP I know that UKIP are doing well so excuse me if I don’t believe the polls
Good article Brian. And not too far from my suspicions, Most pundits says and I think quite rightly that this election is difficult to predict because of the rise in the smaller parties. Everyone I have listened to state that the thoughts surrounding previous elections cannot be applied to this one, but when UKIP won the 2 seat late last year used the line of not being able to trust by-elections etc etc, Taking these by elections from Corby in 2012 ( the last 11 ) UKIP have steadily risen to a cumulative average % of 26.35, you could contend that this figure is grossly distorted by Messrs Carswell and Reckless results, so in fairness the next figure doesn’t include them, by dropping these 2 results UKIP drops to about 22.5% with the trend being upwards throughout the 11 elections, Why should we believe the pollsters who you have abley nailed in your article. I suspect that UKIP sitting around the 24% mark, this would have about an 11% knockdown to the % of LibLabCon, making it very interesting. Would this account for what would appear to be the very frightened actions of LibLabCon and their brother and sisters in the media.