…or more specifically, one bookie, Paddy Power, who seems to focus more on politics than the others, with this section on their website.
The bookmakers seem to have an uncanny knack of being more accurate than pollsters, as they weigh up more evidence than the pollsters do. The final test is the collective view of the punters themselves: where their money goes affects the level of the odds.
So, with this in mind, here is a selection of some of the current offerings on Paddy Power for the “betting man” (and woman):
Heywood and Middleton
Clacton UKIP Vote Share 5/6 < 54% > 5/6
These types of bet are interesting – the figure they pick in the middle is generally the most likely outcome that the bookmaker sees.
Rochester & Strood
General Election 2015
Number of Seats in General Election
Con 5/6 < 280.5 > 5/6
Lab 5/6 < 306.5 > 5/6
LD 4/5 < 31.5 > Evens
UKIP 4/7 < 4.5 > 5/4
They do not seem to have factored in the possibility of the SNP gaining a lot of seats from Labour, but the 26 seat advantage of Labour over Conservative bears out what Brian Otridge has said in his article today. Also, it’s a mystery how a party that’s knocking around 8-9% in the polls could get 7 times the number of seats a party getting 15-20% would have?
Note: Not all UKIP target/hopeful seats have odds offered against them yet.
UKIP 11/4 (Patricia Culligan)
UKIP 5/2 (Victoria Ayling)
UKIP 8/13 (Nigel Farage)
UKIP 6/4 (Tim Aker)