This is from Roger Helmer’s blog.


I’m delighted to see headlines recently with phrases like “Brexit Bounce” (love the alliteration) and “Brexit Surge”.

During the referendum campaign I frequently predicted that there would be economic turbulence around the vote, and in the aftermath of the vote if Brexit won, and I have to be honest and say that I anticipated (if we won) perhaps months of gloomy headlines.  I expected to spend a long time defending the Brexit position and arguing that Brexit is a long-term project, that the benefits would come eventually, and that we had to give them time to emerge.

So I am frankly astonished — and delighted — to see how positive the reaction has been.  Yes, the Pound is down — but that looks like a tonic for exporters, and many economists had argued that it needed to come down.  (And as I write, the Pound has strengthened sharply against the dollar).  But contrary to expectation, the Footsie is up. Retail sales are up.  Employment is up.  Manufacturing and services are up.  And a recent large scale opinion poll of 8000 people shows 59% think that “Britain is heading in the right direction”.

Economists who predicted a post-Brexit recession are having to eat their words.  Today I read that Credit Suisse, which had predicted a contraction in 2017, has revised its prediction to +0.5%.  Still far too low, in my view, but a move in the right direction.  Morgan Stanley has also cancelled its recession forecast.

Of course we have a long way to go, and the uncertainty caused by the delay in invoking Article 50 may yet be damaging.  But the overall picture is more positive than I could ever have imagined, and the dire predictions of the Remain Campaign look increasingly absurd.

A remaining problem is the media mind-set, and especially that of the BBC.  They are so convinced that Brexit is bad for the economy that they prefix every good news report with “Despite Brexit”, reinforcing negative expectations.  Think again, guys.  The fresh air of freedom is invigorating.  Time to say “Because of Brexit…”.

On the plus side, I just heard the news on Classic FM announcing “House prices expected to rise for five years following (not “despite”) the Brexit vote”.

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