The European Union’s Brexit negotiating screws are turning on a weakened Mrs May and Co, and it is painful to behold the concessions given to them to be followed by their extra demands; such as the rights of EU citizens in the UK after Brexit. It must be tortuous being there in the room with Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk or Guy Verhofstadt (each an EU version of the Marquis de Sade) and Angela Merkel’s (pig headed) attack dogs enjoying Schadenfreude. Did anyone think we could actually negotiate with them without being treated to an EU version of Count Dracula siphoning out as much of our life blood as possible? At what point do we recognise that these Article 50 negotiationsare going to make us second class citizens in our own country and worse? Some serious crisis management is needed, preferably sooner rather than when being on the rack of their modern day Inquisition (or Imposition) gets unbearable.
The most basic rules of crisis management are:
- Don’t get into a crisis in the first place;
- Once in a crisis don’t do anything to make it worse;
- Don’t believe that the original timetable, objectives and budget can still be achieved;
- The earlier the remedial intervention the greater the chances of recovery.
The basic problem (why things go wrong in the first place and don’t get corrected in time) is that all decisions and resulting actions (whatever is happening) occur within an underlying paradigm or conceptual framework. This paradigm includes subject and other knowledge, assumptions, beliefs, aspirations, language, philosophy etc. and operates to constrain intellectual activity. Thomas Kuhn in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions explored the effect of paradigms on scientific progress. Kuhn noted that the luminaries of the science community tended to limit their interest to exploring an existing ‘conventional world view’ of science, and ignoring contradictory evidence and theories. Progress tended to come from the ‘outsiders’ who established a new paradigm.
Individual paradigms can also turn into a group one or consensus that is fundamentally flawed; peer group pressure commonly stifles any dissenting views. Irving L. Janis in Victims of Groupthink explored how a group (in this case concerned with American foreign policy) could make potentially dangerous mistakes. He has suggested in Crucial Decisions – Leadership in Policymaking and Crisis Management how this can be avoided.The picture of imperatives towards bad policymaking is completed by process and bureaucratic controls, poor communications, custom and practice, heuristic shortcuts and management/political leadership ego (loss of face) which can all also help to prevent reality being accepted and acted upon expeditiously, when things are going wrong.
Regarding Brexit negotiations, once Mrs May made her Lancaster House speech in January this year the die was cast, come EU hell or high water, or General Election disaster. Yet there were, and still are, many issues where our Brexit negotiations looks like shambolic vague wishful thinking (see Mrs May’s and Mr Davis’s Great EU Escape Master Plan), based on incomplete and inaccurate information (see Brexit and some Alternative Facts ), and questionable assumptions (for some significant assumptions see The Big EU-UK Question). This is vulnerability writ large to being taken to the EU cleaners over, for example, the number, order and imposed conditions of subjects ‘negotiated’; continuing contributions to the EU blackhole (aka budget and liabilities); making EU citizens remaining in this country into a privileged caste; trade/bureaucratic regulation terms propelling our finest enterprises on a one way route to commercial oblivion; and setting us up as a warning of what the vengeance of the EU elite means for any wayward populists in the remaining EU Member States.Back at the beginning of May (this year) it was obvious the EU was going in an uncompromising and bad-faith way in respect to Brexit negotiations (see Mayday, May! Brexit Mayday). Yet we are weaker now than then to come up with an alternative strategy (or strategies) that stands a better chance of getting us out of the claws of the EU political machinery and machinations; real Brexit not continuing EU members in reality, if not in name.
Recovery in a crisis needs a new paradigm to replace the existing failing one, and the resources to make it work. This suggests rapidly acquiring an effective Company Doctor or turnaround specialist (or team) for Brexit who thinks the unthinkable, and stamps his or her authority and project management expertise quickly on the negotiations. Forget the idea of just getting more of the same people – usually this actually slows down progress. The new paradigm needs to be based on an understanding of the existing failing one and its obvious flaws; such as unrealistic assumptions about the EU’ negotiating priorities; their desire to reach a deal; their honesty and integrity; their flexibility to achieve a deal; what is achievable within the timetable; and the difference between a real comprehensive fully resourced plan and vacuous hyperbole. The new paradigm needs to be evidence and analysis driven, including risk assessments of probabilities of being realistic, and not be based on wishful thinking or aspirations, or after drinks entertainment for the Westminster Bubble. And most importantly don’t shoot the messenger because the message is unpalatable or demand a sycophantic re-write.
It would be nice to think that everything will be alright in the end leaving the EU, despite the best (or worst) efforts of our negotiating team under direction of Mrs May and Mr Davis (Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union). Unfortunately history is full of projects that failed to come in on time, budget and to specified requirements or objectives. In the absence of hard evidence to the contrary, Brexit negotiations appear to be heading the same way; or more metaphorically the Brexit orchestra is playing as the Titanic ship of state sails serenely ontowards a sea full of EU negotiating icebergs.
The date is now june 2018, and your words are solidly prophetic. Mrs May has shown herself solidly incompetent at everything except personal survival and feral self interest at any cost. UKIP is settling down and waiting for someone. Negotiations are proceeding according to EU plan.
Do you think that is what is wrong with UKIP. No one thinking outside the box. Project management is taught in schools now so it’s solidly inside now. Maybe to think outside the box you need to know what the box is and at least a percentage of whats in it. Blimey theres some clever people about. Maybe thats the meaning of life, not the wheel or fire. They are just symptoms. Am I crazy yet mum?
The Tories are playing a game of deliberate delay and dithering. They want to keep us in the EU by a strategy of “waiting for Godot”. The only serious way to deal with the EU is to leave immediately and then hold 3rd party trade talks. That will focus their minds and attitude. As for EU citizens in the UK they cannot expect protection from the ECJ when our courts and laws more than suffice. We cannot have Trojan Horses – where would it end?
Spot on John, the so called negotiations were always bound to fail.
The EU needs to be made to feel fear. And that to minimise their own future pain they actually need to treat the UK with decency and fairness.
The EU is based upon the assumption that pooled sovereignty creates a stronger overall organism. They need to be disabused of this assumption. Brexit can be the catalyst for their necessary paradigm shift.
They are in a very different place in their mentality.
Every empire throughout history has collapsed in the end, and it seems likely that the EU will do so too. They need to understand that they are living on borrowed time.
We need to help them to deflate their balloon gradually and with minimum disruption, because the alternative, that the balloon pops with a bang, will be extremely painful for everyone. They need to understand that we are actually doing them a favour.
The EU is not united, it can never be. A house divided cannot stand.
Hugo – I’ve been reading the various news articles, telling us how the government are preparing to accept compromises over sovereignty, border controls etc.
What did anybody expect from Theresa Sharia May? I always new that May was one of those people that is fundamentally incompetent and will make a complete mess of anything they touch. Watching May smiling and pleading, wanting to have a ‘deep meaningful relationship’ with everybody makes me sick.
I now realise, we’re going to get stitched up royally and end up with the worst of all worlds, a Sharia May specialty.
Probably the idea all along!
Anytime a politician uses the word ‘meaningful’ it just makes me cringe; whether its ‘deep and meaningful relationship with Europe’ or ‘giving Parliament a meaningful vote on the deal’.
Because in these contexts, the word has very little meaning at all, and is just more wishy-washy vagueness.
They can all talk about ‘respecting the will of the people’ but lets face it, the UK Establishment really doesn’t want to leave the EU. I will be very surprised if the UK has left the EU by 2019.