I am feeling sorry for myself this morning, having watched the booking odds over the last week changed from UKIP lead to Labour lead predicted the result at Stoke. I am also feeling sorry for UKIP because our leader failed the first rule of politics, to be squeaky clean.
I feel sorry for Stoke on Trent because the Labour contender offered them nothing except more of the tribal loyalty and steady decline. I feel sorry for the country because UKIP party leader now has an Achilles Heel that will be brought out every time he or our party are mentioned on the Main Stream Media (MSM).
The campaign in Stoke failed to call on the people to elect someone to champion the cause of Leaving the EU, thereby allowing themselves to elect a Member of Parliament who will fight against leaving and the will of his constituency. It is said that people always elect the governance they deserve, so has the fight gone out of Stoke to demand a better future?
Stoke Election Results
Gareth Snell Labour 7853 37%
Paul Nuttall UKIP 5233 24.7%
Jack Brereton Conservative 5154 24.4%
Zulfiqar Ali LibDem 2083 9.8%
Adam Colclough Green 294 1.4%
Barbara Fielding Independent 137 0.65%
Flying Brick Loony 127 0.6%
The turnout was just 36.7% so the electorate was not really motivated. The result is slightly different from that at the last General Election where the Labour majority over UKIP was more like 5500. This means that Labour support had fallen but been spread fairly equally between UKIP and the Conservatives, as it was in 2015.
The relationship of UKIP and the Conservatives shows that had the Conservatives given way here that Paul would have won with a majority of about 2200. The Brexit vote is almost evenly split between them. So it wasn’t all about Hillsborough at all.
Labour and the LibDems got 46.8% of the vote between them and UKIP and Tories 49% between them. Still actually a majority to Leave the EU, but not be a lot. One could almost claim that a lot of people who voted to Leave have really changed their minds.
The thing about results is that it is possible to read into them almost anything you like, just by assigning reasons to the vote, which are purely speculative. Nevertheless the Greens in particular as a party with the same number of MPs as UKIP attracted only 1.4% of the vote. Clearly their message is not popular with the people.
Copeland Election Results
Trudy Harrison Conservative 13748 44.3%
Gill Troughton Labour 11602 33.3%
Rebecca Hanson LibDem 2242 7.3%
Fiona Mills UKIP 2025 6.5%
Michael Guest Independent 811 2.6%
Jack Lenox Green 515 1.7%
Roy Ivinson Independent 116 0.4%
This is a terrific win for the Conservatives as government always gets hammered in by-elections because it is an opportunity to have a go by the opposition. The last time this happened was nearly 80 years ago, according to the MSM! Of course it could be unsubstantiated fake news, but it sounds good.
There was an issue in this constituency about the nearby nuclear power stations, which the Conservatives support in principle, but have a difficult time selling to the electorate nationwide. The nuclear industry near Copeland provides a lot of well paid jobs and a prospect of building new stations that could keep the area thriving for decades. Labour has a leader and a core value that is anti-nuclear. That was the deciding factor.
The issue of Leave or Remain was a secondary issue that left the LibDems and UKIP scrabbling for relatively meaningless votes. Together the Conservatives & UKIP represent 50.8% of the Leave vote, whereas Labour, LibDems & Greens represent 42.3% of Remain.
Still a majority for Leave if we can interpret the reasons for voting in that manner.
The Green Party as in Stoke is failing to offer policies to the people that are wanted. Roll on Brexit and scrapping the Climate Change Act 2006.
Where now UKIP
I saw the Deputy Leader, Peter Whittle on Sky News this morning. It was one of those interviews where he apparently couldn’t hear the presenter very well and that clearly disconcerted him. Now I find it hard to believe that communications are that unreliable. Whenever someone has something good to say to the media there never seems to be a problem. It only occurs when the situation is difficult to defend.
Peter put up a defence for Paul Nuttall about the Hillsborough claim but it has reached the point where it has been raised so many times it is now indefensible. Even I as a UKIP supporter cannot believe that Paul Nuttall was unaware of the exaggerated claim, on his web page for five years that he had lost friends in the disaster.
It is clear that the MSM will trot this out continuously if he ever again stands for election to Westminster in any constituency. He is now damaged goods and it might even make UKIP unelectable anywhere because the only way to purge this problem would be another leadership election.
Aaron Banks stated just last week that if Paul didn’t make it in Stoke then he would likely not support the party any more. Indeed there are a number of authors who write for UKIP Daily who have let their UKIP membership lapse pending the leadership and management of the party getting its act together. But unfortunately it just isn’t happening. Stoke would have been a watershed moment for us but instead it looks like we don’t have a purpose unless the UK fails to break free from the EU.