So, the Conservatives won the Newark by-election; well numerically, anyway. The figures are plain enough but by slashing their majority and coming a creditable second, UKIP has no need to feel despondent. It pushed Labour into third and the Lib Dems into oblivion. I take heart from the way the Tories felt they had to battle hard to ensure success, so much so they marshalled their considerable forces in order to defeat the newcomer. It fielded its majors and colonels, and the general was there four times. They even drafted in the youth wing. Why? Because they were afraid, hence D for Desperation. Attention like that clearly shows how serious a contender UKIP has become.
It had parallels with the Relief of Newark in 1644, when Parliamentary forces besieged Prince Rupert who was defending the town. He held out and victory was achieved but his side went on to lose. They say those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it.
Great result. Has anyone crunched the numbers to see how UKIP’s 22% gain would have played-out over the rest of the UK if a general election had been in the works last Thursday?
Yes, I have, in this article: http://ukipdaily.com/ukip-2015-polls-psephology-players-press-politics/#.U5NzPvldWSo . Remember, a number of the voters in the Euros were protest voters and will “return” to their original parties at the GE.
I am working on the council results now, to provide an alternate view, where the overall level of voting for UKIP was lower, but those who vote for us in Council elections are likely to also vote UKIP in a GE.
First of all, congratulations to Roger Helmer and to all UKIP members and activists who put in so much good work. It was a huge ask, and they delivered. UKIP was the only party which gained votes, and a huge 22% at that. With a 53% turn out, we’ve shown that even in a secure Tory seat, we have 25% or more of votes. A good foundation for next year.
For the Tories, this is what is called a Pyrric victory, achieved not only because of the massed ‘general’ and all CCHQ was able to muster, kitchen sink included, but because of tactical voting which the other parties actually encouraged their members to do. Their aim was simply “keep UKIP out by all means”.
This is yet another valuable lesson for us on the way to the GE. WIth Hague saying that they will not say what they are negotiating about with Brussels (if they are at all …) until after the elections, we are garnering more and more ammunition for the campaign.
Anyway – after the last six weeks: well done everybody, and enjoy a bit of well deserved rest.