Theresa May has promised to get the best deal for Britain. The Brexit Secretary David Davis is willing to pay the EU to continue to be part of the Single Market. The EU has made it clear time and again that we cannot cherry pick parts of EU membership, and remaining part of the Single Market means accepting free movement of people.
Of course the Remainers accept that we are going to Leave the EU and do not intend to frustrate Brexit but on the other hand insist we remain part of the Single Market. Several countries have already stated quite categorically that they will say no to any deal with the UK that gives us benefits without membership.
The Remainers claim that the majority of those who voted Leave did not vote for damage to the economy, nor fall in incomes, nor more unemployment therefore they couldn’t have voted to leave the Single Market.
This of course is the wrong conclusion because continued membership of the Single Market, which is the heart of the EU keeps us locked to a trade block that is declining quite rapidly in trade with the rest of the World. During the Referendum arguments by the Remainers made it quite clear that if we left the EU we would be out of the Single Market and that was likely to damage employment and the economy. We all heard that and a majority still voted to Leave.
The contrary argument of the Leave campaigners was that while in the Single Market we are not allowed by EU rules to do trade deals unilaterally with any other countries. The Single Market does deals on behalf of all EU members. So all these informal talks with many other nations about bilateral trade deals is meaningless if we stay a member of the Single Market.
There is now the unfolding train wreck of legal battles over every part of the leaving process giving Parliament the right to scrutinise and amend any part of the process of Leaving. Indeed though Theresa is chuffed that 31 March 2017 is confirmed as the final date before triggering Article 50 that is actually subject to the approval of a plan to put to the EU. I am quite sure that Parliament will prevent that by never agreeing a plan.
So in order to meet the deadline Theresa will have to keep giving-in to a succession of demands that amount to continued membership under a different guise, such as EEC, or EFTA, or Associate Membership. What Parliament will approve for the government to use in negotiations will NOT be acceptable to the 52% who voted Leave.
The illiberal/unDemocrats and Labour are demanding that after the EU has further torn our plan to shreds that it is to be put to a further referendum for the people to approve it or not.
So lets work out what an Approved Deal would be acceptable to the EU, to the House of Commons, The House of Lords, the High Court & Supreme Court and the Remainers;-
1. Continued access to the Single Market;
2. Continued payments to the EU;
3. Movement of people by agreement between EU & UK;
4. EU laws still superior to UK Law;
5. EU gets to keep control of our former territorial waters in exchange for access to the Single Market.
We will still be bound by obligation to Climate Change measures. Still be signed up to the European Arrest Warrant. Still be bound by the Common Agricultural Policy. Still forced to accept the torrent of Laws, Regulations & Directives. Still subject to new Working Directives and Health & Safety legislation. We will quite quickly be signatories to a European Army. But we will no longer be qualified to be involved in the drafting any of these Laws, or Directives or Regulations.
So if this Approved Deal is then put to the people to say YES or NO, if we say YES we are still in the EU and if we say NO we are still in the EU.
The only referendum question that will satisfy the majority who voted Leave would be a choice on the paper of the Approved Deal, or Clean Break and No Deal. This is just not going to happen to the satisfaction of the majority. The Leavers will not accept this stitch up and marches and rioting will ensue.
It is becoming clear to me that the Remainers are determined to keep blocking the path to Leave and will never give up until all peaceful means have been exhausted and they will then resort to violence to subdue the protesters.
First it will be the police brought in to contain the riots and when large numbers of them defect to the Leave side the Army will be called in. The Army will then also fracture with huge numbers (maybe a majority) deserting rather than fight their own kind and own beliefs. Then it all descends into civil war.
The truth is that there is NO DEAL that Theresa May can cobble together which will keep both sides sufficiently appeased that the country will settle its differences. Even if such a dream deal is possible for UK citizens it would be unacceptable to other EU members states.
Why waste any more time, especially 2 more years. CLEAN BREAK NOW with repeal of the European Communities Act 1972. It is that or civil war.