The Alliance for Direct Democracy (ADDE) in Europe have commissioned Survation to conduct a poll on the EU Referendum, and it still shows we have an uphill battle there, despite all the recent events that do not show the EU in a very good light.

First of all, who are the ADDE? I have to admit I had to look it up in Wikipedia and found their entry which opens with the statement:

“The Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe, abbreviated to ADDE, is a European political party founded in 2014, composed of parties belonging to the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) group in the European Parliament. Three members of the dominant national party in ADDE, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), have chosen not to participate.  It was recognised by the European Parliament (EP) in 2015″

There you go. Essentially, it’s UKIP, in another guise, although the party contains members from Belgium, Czech Republic, France (not Front National), Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland and Sweden who either sit in Brussels or their national parliaments.

The results do not make the best of reading for the “No” camp, as shown in our headline graphic. Leaving aside undecided voters for now, at  54.4% Yes and 45.6% No, this is an 8.8 point lead for “Yes”; about 2 points smaller than the margin of victory for “No” in the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014.

Survation then asked those who said they would vote “Yes” or “No” if they would definitely vote that way or whether they might consider switching based on the outcome of Dave Cameron’s renegotiations. This was the result of asking that question:

Breakdown EU Ref Poll Jul 15

At the present state of play, but in an ideal world where all the present “No” voters stay in the “No” camp, and all the undecideds and “Yes” voters open to switching came across then there is the definite potential for a 67:30 landslide in favour of “No”. The whole thing hangs on how the general public receives the final outcome of David Cameron’s “re-negotiation”, which we as UKIPpers clearly know is a sham, but sadly a lot of voters don’t realise that, with the realities of the inflexibility of the European Union.

So, Survation asked what voters saw as the key issues for re-negotiation, and here’s what they found:

Renegotiation EU Referendum POll Jul 15

The top 3 issues were as follows:

  • 32% – Ending the automatic right of all EU citizens to live and work in the UK, so that we can control the numbers and quality of immigrants coming to the UK
  • 18% – Restoring sovereignty to the UK Parliament so we can make our own laws
  • 15% – Lowering the cost of our membership, so the money could be spent at home

Let’s look at those one by one.

  1. The first is utterly embedded in the EU’s ideals, treaties and rules. Various EU functionaries have already said it cannot be changed, and in reality it would need the agreement of all 28 member states. Cameron would live in Cloud Cuckoo Land if he did believe it could be changed. However, what he does know is that he could spin some kind of minor concession, coupled with an allowable UK law change, to try and make the public believe he has solved the problem. We must be on our guard to combat his “spin” (that’s the “lies” put more kindly)
  2. The second is also a pipe dream while we remain members. The flow of laws from the EU to the UK and the increase of EU competencies is a never-ending and mostly irreversible process. The only way to reverse is OUT. However, again, Cameron will no doubt attempt to spin something here.
  3. For the final one, the EU may give us a concession or two – a billion here, a billion there, but we must show the public that these would be relative chicken feed compared to the far greater gains of being out.

And meanwhile, illegal immigrants pile up at Calais, the Greek problem totters on waiting for its next crisis and yet more restrictions are placed on UK citizens and freedoms lost as each year goes by. We are nowhere near being there to win a Referendum, but all the potential is there – we just have to fight for it!

(Survation’s full report can be found here.)

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