Comres has now released a another poll for C4M (which is the abbreviation for Coalition for Marriage) on the European elections voting intention. This gives a headline UKIP figure, nationwide, of 34% (Page 10, on the link), with Labour on 24%, leaving the Tories down on 22% and Liberal Democrats on 8%. There is an argument put forward by the Political Betting site that pollsters who prompt for Greens get lower UKIP ratings – however, this argument is specious as Comres do not prompt for UKIP either, yet still over a third of people plumped for the party. (Their question: “If there were an election for the European Parliament tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for some other party?”)
This poll does break the regions of the country down to exactly match the European regions, so the results are pretty accurate for each region, presuming their polling is accurate. Applying the d’Hondt formula, here’s the projection from this Comres poll:
This polls shows UKIP as being extremely strong in the South-East England (my own straw poll on the doorstep bearing that out) plus the West Midlands and Yorkshire/Humberside, the latter producing the only knife-edge result where UKIP might get 3 or 4 MEPs, the latter result sending Gary Shores to Brussels. Overall, this poll shows UKIP having 28 or 29 MEPs.
Labour end up well behind UKIP on 20 MEPs, with Wales being uncharacteristically strong, to Plaid Cymru’s disadvantage. This poll shows Scotland as a disappointment for UKIP, well down on 8% and no MEP – the polls do not agree on whether Scotland will benefit from a UKIP MEP or not.
The minor parties? The Greens will be disappointed with this poll – they can share UKIP’s grief at not being prompted in the question. The Lib Dems would only manage two with this poll in London and the South East – not exactly their heartlands, but where the d’Hondt system works to their advantage through large region sizes combined with the strongest levels of regional opinion poll support.
All the polls have shown UKIP will end up with between 24 and 30 MEPs, so doubtless when the fat lady sings the truth will end up somewhere in that band – keep up the good campaigning work.
(If you need a reminder of who this would send to Brussels, the regional lists of candidates can be found here)