Further to my article a few days ago, we now have another Euro Election poll from ComRes/ITV that shows a headline figure of 38% of support for UKIP across the country, with Labour on 27%, Conservative on 18% and LDs on 8%. It is stressed that these figures are weighted for turnout, and it seems that UKIP voters are a loyal bunch with a strong determination to get out and vote, as the un-weighted figures are much lower.
However, when we look at the breakdown of this across the regions, and apply the d’Hondt formula, this does not have the nationwide impact on the number of UKIP seats that one might expect given a rise of 7% from 31% to 38%, as shown below:
What are the big differences in this new poll? The knife-edge regions become the South East of England, where UKIP could gain a 5th seat and send Donna Edmunds (our Editor in Chief) to Brussels, stealing a seat from Labour, and in the North East of England where the Tories could end up with no MEP, stolen by Labour. Also, Plaid Cymru would win a seat for Wales, at UKIP’s expense. Overall UKIP could have 30-31 MEPs, 3 more than the YouGov poll indicated. The LibDems are slaughtered even more, down to 3, and the Greens taken down to a Euro “nil punkt”!
The big success story would be East Anglia, where 53% (weighted) would vote for UKIP, and this would give UKIP 5 out of the 7 seats. The d’Hondt system, while being a proportional system of sorts, tends to squeeze out parties with 10% or less, and concentrate seats in the hands of the majority parties to compensate.
The cautionary warning from the ComRes poll, though, is that 32% of those interviewed considered UKIP to be a racist party. It would seem that some people interpret opposition to mass immigration as being racist, and of course there will be those who just consume the smears from the MSM, not UKIP’s actual policies. Between now and May 2015, the party has to be able to better spread our positive policy message, while suppressing the opportunities for negative news about individuals with deviant viewpoints.