Comres has now released yet another poll for The Independent on Sunday on the European elections voting intention. This gives a headline UKIP figure, nationwide, of 35% (Page 32, on the link), with Labour on 24%, leaving the Tories down on 20% and Liberal Democrats on 6%, behind the Greens on 7%! These figures are weighted against voting intention – those highly likely to actually go out and vote. And they sharply contradict the ICM/Telegraph poll published the same day, claiming the Tories are in the lead – wishful thinking to spur on their activists, perhaps?
This poll breaks the regions of the country down to exactly match the European regions, so the results are specific for each region. However, the sample sizes are quite small, when broken down by region. So, for example, the percentage for Greens in Yorks and Humber is based on just one respondent (from 80 people) saying they would definitely vote for the Greens. For the smaller numbers, the risks of inaccuracy are higher.
Applying the d’Hondt formula, here’s the projection from this Comres poll:
This poll shows UKIP as being incredibly strong in the Eastern Region (61%), followed by the South East and the West Midlands. In the East of England, UKIP would sweep the board with 6 of the 7 slots! The South East would firmly be in the territory of 5 MEPs (from 10) and the West Midlands would secure a 4th MEP out of the 7 slots available. A total of 32 or 33, depending on a knife-edge outcome with Labour in the East Midlands
Labour end up well behind UKIP on 17 or 18 MEPs, with Wales again being uncharacteristically strong, to Plaid Cymru’s disadvantage. This poll shows UKIP putting David Coburn into Brussels for Scotland, taking one of the slots from SNP who would be down on 2 seats.
The minor parties? The Greens beat the Liberal Democrats nationwide, but both only take 1 seat, the Liberal Democrats in the South East, and the Greens in London, ejecting the utterly Europhile Baroness Ludford from representing London Liberal Democrats in Brussels.
This is the strongest poll for UKIP so far. However, we must remember that other polls have placed UKIP lower, and even the ICM poll today has the Tories (incredibly) in the lead.