Opinium/Observer has now released a poll which ventures into the field of an assessment of European elections voting intention. This gives a headline UKIP figure, nationwide, of 30% (page 5, if you delve into the link), with Labour on 28%, leaving the Tories down on 22% and Liberal Democrats on 7%.
This poll does break the regions of the country down to exactly match the European regions, so the results are pretty accurate for each region, presuming their polling is accurate. Applying the d’Hondt formula, here’s the projection from this Opinium poll:
In this poll there are a lot of “close run things”, 2 involving UKIP and 3 involving the Tories. Scotland is on a knife edge for UKIP, but otherwise the party will have a minimum of 1 in each region, rising to 5 (from 10) in the South East, the second highest region of support, behind the West Midlands.
In some regions, UKIP are not far off having another MEP – a few more percent in each of the South West, East Anglia and Yorks and Humber could mean another MEP in each. As it is, this poll predicts UKIP with 24 to 26, and in one possible outcome, Labour would tie with UKIP on 24, despite UKIP being higher in the national poll.
The minor parties? With a strong predicted vote in the South West the watermelons (sorry, I mean Greens) would get one there, and the Lib Dems would manage one in each of the Southern regions, total of 3, while for the nationalists SNP would manage 3 and Plaid Cymru none.
A week to go, and there’s still all to play. Every bit of UKIP-bashing the media does seems to push UKIP support up.