Now we have the latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll which has now ventured into the field of an assessment of European elections voting intention. This gives a headline UKIP figure, nationwide, of 31.5% (Table 11, if you delve into the link), with Labour on 27.8%, leaving the Tories down on 20.7% and Liberal Democrats on 9.3%.
Like YouGov, Survation doesn’t break the regions of the country down to exactly match the European regions, but it is possible to handle them in groups. Applying the d’Hondt formula, here’s the projection from this YouGov poll: What are the differences in this new poll? The lack of granularity in Survation’s regional split has produced a wider spread across the country than the YouGov, but there will be inaccuracies there, a prime example being that the East Midlands is more Tory than the West Midlands. Also, they use one decimal place, an unjustified accuracy given the relatively low number of respondents in some regions (just 50 people in Wales, for example), but this does enable us to avoid the split results where a single percentage point might tip a seat from one party to another.
The highlights for UKIP are the number of seats gained in the South-East and East Anglia, 5 from 10 and 4 from 7 respectively, sending UKIP Daily’s Donna Edmunds to Brussels. The total of 25 is lower than the best poll projection of 29, but still very respectable. The low point is Scotland, with no MEP returned – Nigel took a gamble in declaring David Coburn WOULD go to Brussels on his recent visit to Edinburgh, but then Nigel is a self-admitted gambler! With that strength of SNP vote, UKIP needs 11.4% of the votes to succeed with one seat there.
Low points for the other parties? No seats for the Greens (other polls suggest 1 seat), and the Liberal Democrats down to a derisory 3 (from 12), and the Tories on a sorry 12 (from 26).