I was going to do another article on the rather hopeful-looking Survation/Mirror poll, but when I started digging down into the figures for the regions, it became apparent that their sample sizes per region were far too small to produce meaningful results at that level, so I abandoned the task. For example, the number of Green voters per region accounted for was in the 0-5 range.
So, it seemed a better idea to take a final look at the range of all the polls, across the board, and other trends emerging from them. On the basis that a picture speaks a thousand words, I have produced this:
The circles are at 10%, 20% and 30%, and there are 6 radials, one for each major pollster. I have used their latest polls only, and plotted the results. All bar one the pollsters put UKIP in the lead – visually, the area of the UKIP “box” being larger than the next nearest (Labour) quite clearly shows the balance of the polls.
We all know that the results of polls are often swayed by what the paymasters want – in the case of ICM their paymaster was the Telegraph, and for a start their poll did not take account of the certainty to vote factor that other polls did – the Telegraph has been the most persistent paper in its attacks on UKIP, acting under orders from Conservative Central Office of course. UKIP voters are far more determined to get out there and vote than other voters, the People’s Army, so in that respect the weather in some parts of the country tomorrow seems to be in UKIP’s favour – rain over most of the country, deterring the casual voter.
The regional vote seems to indicate what we already suspected, that the South East, South West, Midlands and East Anglia are UKIP’s strongest areas, with Scotland as the weakest, albeit the party may scrape in with one MEP. However, considerable progress seems to be on the way for London, Wales and the North.
On top of that is the anecdotal evidence of the feeling on the ground. My own contact with voters locally indicates a very strong level of support for UKIP. Also, Thomas Collier of Southampton reported last week on his town, and this article yesterday in The Independent tends to back his feelings up.
The relentless attacks of the media on UKIP are backfiring. Again, talking to voters and other activists (who have talked to voters) supports this feeling, and Nigel Farage has confirmed it in an article in The Guardian which of the broadsheets now takes the most balanced view of politics in the run-up to this election – a more canny lot of journalists there perhaps.
And then the council elections – the Survation poll has it that 59% of voters who turn out to vote for UKIP in the European poll will vote for a UKIP candidate. Let us hope that nets us hundreds of Councillors!
Victory is in sight, but we must not be complacent. There is one more day of campaigning, then election day when many of us will position ourselves outside of polling stations, proudly wearing the UKIP rosette to visually remind people to vote for the UK Independence Party, at the bottom of the ballot paper rather than one of the imitation parties at the top of the ballot paper.