On Friday 6th July, UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced her Brexit deal to the world. A deal that had taken two years for her to put together lasted for only two days. Then the resignations began.
Brexiteers Boris Johnson and David Davis have left the cabinet because they feel that May’s deal gives too much away to the EU. On the other hand, arch Remainers Anna Soubry and Justine Greening are now openly calling for a second referendum. The truth is that the Conservative Party is completely split on the issue of Europe, as it has been for the past 30 years. It is completely incapable of pushing any meaningful deal through Parliament.
On 23rd June 2016, 17.4 Million British people voted to leave the European Union. That figure represents the greatest number of people who have ever voted for anything in Britain. We do not need a second so called “people’s vote” as the most treacherous of the Remainers are telling us, because we have already had a people’s vote. The people have spoken already. The people have said that they want to leave the EU.
Ever since they lost the vote, Remainers in the Conservative Party, in Labour, in the Lib Dems, in the SNP and Plaid Cymru have tried, by various means, to prevent Brexit from happening. Some of them call now for a second referendum. Others try to foist such ludicrous conditions on our leaving that ultimately we will barely be leaving at all.
Of the Leavers, they are now split between those, like Boris and David Davis, who have decided that they can no longer support May’s cave-in, and others led by Michael Gove, who appear to believe that May’s deal is the best that Britain can achieve at this time. Things like ending free movement and leaving the customs union will have to wait until later. But these are the very things that people voted to leave.
If there is no Parliamentary majority for a deal, what happens? Well, there is a possibility that the EU, if all 28 countries agree, will extend the deadline for leaving beyond next April. But if no deal looks likely, then what will probably happen is that the UK will bomb out of the EU without a deal.
Will this be a catastrophe? Yes. It certainly will. It will be a catastrophe for the European Union, and will actually lead to the destruction of the EU in its current form. If we do not manage to negotiate a trade deal with the EU, then clearly we have no obligation to pay the estimated £40 billion divorce settlement. The EU will be left with a £40 billion black hole, and many of their programmes will simply collapse.
Will this be a disaster for Europe? Well, actually, not it won’t. It will merely be a continuation of the European peoples turning their back on the European Union, which increasingly they see as a failed organisation. Many of the countries in the EU are now run by anti-EU governments. This growing list includes Italy, Austria, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. In Germany, Frau Merkel has spent the past nine months vainly trying to form a workable government. Even liberal lefty Sweden is now going into a General Election with the anti-EU Sweden Democrats leading the polls.
Across Europe, people are rejecting the European Union as they increasingly realise that living in the EU means that you cannot live in a nation state.
To conclude, we now know that we could well be headed for ‘no deal’. We now need the UK Government to rapidly make contingency plans to ensure the movement of necessary supplies to and from the UK in the event of a no deal. We need some emergency planning. In the short term, it could be a bumpy ride, and we need to be prepared.
In the long term, the real catastrophe will not be to Britain. It will be to the EU. In a few months’ time, Barnier and Juncker will wake up and realise that they have one day left to negotiate and that a £40 billion funding shortfall is staring them in the face.
What will they do when they finally realise that their organisation is on the verge of total financial collapse?
This article is a transcript of Gareth’s video which you can view here.