[Continued from Part I which was published here yesterday.]
We are seeing the adage ‘never trust a Tory’ play out before our eyes. Many UKIP supporters lent their vote to the Conservatives in the 2017 General Election as the party of Brexit. May went on to make the right noises in her Mansion House speech. We trusted the Tory Brexiteers to hold May to her word.
Now we see them putting party, career and gongs before country as they always do. She reneged. They didn’t mutiny. We waited with bated breath after Chequers to see what reception the 1922 Committee would give her. They cheered her to the rafters. Not a peep of criticism from branch Chairmen on conference calls. The Daily Mail trumpets her deal and condemns critics. The likes of Ian Duncan Smith are rumoured not to want to miss out on the chance of seats in the Lords.
The strategy of tactical voting in last year’s General Election has been shown to be an unmitigated disaster. Incredibly I still hear voices in UKIP advocating we stand aside for supposed Tory Brexiteers. UKIP is the only party of true Brexit and we must stand everywhere we can muster a candidate to give people the opportunity to demonstrate their disapproval of the traitorous establishment parties at the ballot box (even if Head Office won’t stump up any cash for leaflets or lost deposits).
Even if the magic 48 letters are submitted, May may well win a confidence vote among Tory MPS. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. Most Tory MPs are Remainers and they won’t want to give ordinary party members the chance to vote for a Brexiteer leader. 70% of Conservative Party members are pro-Leave. Remember what happened last time. Members were given the chance to vote and it would be the same this time. Even if May is forced to stand down. Expect an establishment continuity appointee in her place.
The Commons will almost certainly vote down the deal. A fortuitous upside of Theresa May’s disastrous miscalculation of a General Election last year is that the Tories depend on DUP support in the Commons. Unlike the Tories, the DUP’s are “blood red”. They have a principled stance on honouring the referendum result and maintaining the union, neither of which are achieved by May’s deal. May doesn’t seem to understand that, in Northern Irish politics, “no” really does mean “no”. The confidence & supply deal is starting to crumble. The DUP have been scathing about the deal and have already abstained in budget votes. They have hinted that their continued support is conditional on the Conservatives changing their leader.
Perhaps the Brexiteers are skilfully playing a long game, letting things drag out so that a default WTO Brexit can no longer be averted. Perhaps Tory Brexiteer MPs are considering the fact that, if May wins a confidence vote now, it will be 12 months before there can be another and are carefully timing the moment they strike. I wouldn’t bank on it though. We Brexiteers who have been astonishingly naïve – from winding-up Vote Leave to Nigel Farage standing down 10 days after the referendum saying he had achieved what he set out to. The Remainers have never stopped campaigning – and it is they who have been skilfully scheming.
There is now insufficient time to organise a second referendum before we leave in March 2019. So if Parliament votes down the deal we’re in for a default ‘no-deal’ WTO exit – all good, right? No such luck with a Remainer-packed Parliament and a treacherous Prime Minister. They have probably planned it all behind the scenes in their treacherous meetings with Brussels bureaucrats and have everything lined-up for an Article 50 extension.
Labour have suggested they will table a Commons no-confidence if the deal is voted down – to prevent a ‘no-deal” Brexit of course and in the hope of forcing a fresh General Election. Parliament will divide along party lines. But which way will the DUP jump? I hope they will vote with their principles, even if it runs the risk of putting an IRA sympathiser in No. 10. If the government doggedly persists with this Brexit Betrayal, it should fall and a General Election be called.
Of course I would like to see UKIP elected, but this is unlikely. The probable result will be a collapse in the Tory vote and a Corbyn landslide. UKIP are more likely to take votes from the Tories, so the more votes UKIP get, the bigger the win for Labour. Still we should go for it. If all the other parties stand for Remain or the softest Brexit, UKIP will be seen to be the only party which stands for honouring the referendum result. The Tories must be punished at the ballot box in a way they will never forget. They must see what happens to a deceitful bunch of establishment traitors who scheme against the people’s will, run scared holding their leader to account and bow to moneyed interests.
A Corbyn government will certainly be a calamity for the country though, as I’ve written here and here, the cultural Marxist Tory government is already pretty bad. We would be talking about one election cycle as opposed to locking us into vassalhood in perpetuity with no get-out clause. In that time the Tory party may get the message and reform itself. The Labour party would now carry the can for delivering or betraying Brexit. Labour MPs would likely replace Corbyn in a matter months. Perhaps the reality of a hard left government will suffice to disabuse many of those starry-eyed youngsters of their socialist illusions.
Another possibility which has been touted is that of a National Government. This would be even more of a boon for us in the long term as the public would see all the establishment parties colluding to thwart democracy. UKIP will be the only opposition.
Something I’m sure the establishment sees as a plus-point to vassallhood is that the UK will no longer have representation in the European Parliament – hence no pesky UKIP MEPs. Extending Article 50 or remaining in the EU would however entail us continuing to have MEPs. Indeed, the Electoral Commission has already put money aside for 2019 European Elections. If such elections take place, expect UKIP to win even more spectacularly than last time as the public sends a powerful message about what they think of these shenanigans.
We need to prepare now. We should be selecting not only Parliamentary candidates for every constituency, but European ones too. Now that our politician have demonstrably failed to follow through on the democratic mandate, the British people need to take to the streets to make themselves heard. There will be a protest in London 9th December opposing this deal, led by Gerard Batten and Tommy Robinson. Be there.