The biggest question in British politics is whether she will or she won’t – withdraw from the EU, that is. For what it is worth, my opinion is that it would be politically impossible, given the vote in favour of Brexit, for the May government not to withdraw from the EU. She has nailed her colours to the mast with her campaign slogan, “Brexit means Brexit”.
The two problems, however, are:
(1) The timing and
(2) EEA membership.
Theresa May lacks credibility on the EU. She has been heard to say that a Conservative government would never pull out of the EU, and was on the wrong side of the great referendum debate. For the Tory Party to pick a Remainer as Leader was ludicrous, frankly. Members are already walking out of the party, which was decimated by Cameron’s disastrous tenure in office. There are barely 100,000 members now – you can forget the official figures. They probably include me, although party HQ were going to refuse to issue me a ballot paper had there been a democratic leadership battle.
Mrs May is already dragging her kitten heels, with respect, and there is wild talk from David Davis about postponing service of the notice of intention to withdraw under Article 50 until next year. If they try and pull a stunt of that sort they may find that they are no longer in government.
I suspect it will be impossible to resist the pressure from backbench MPs, constituents, business and the European Commission to postpone the Article 50 notice beyond the next EU summit, in October. Indeed, if the government have done nothing to pull us out of the EU by the autumn I predict defections. May’s majority is not that large.
It is also noticeable that the government are lying about Article 50, claiming, absurdly, that there was no mechanism for withdrawing from the EU prior to the Lisbon Treaty. That is obvious nonsense, with respect, given that Greenland withdrew and the UK would have withdrawn had the votes been counted fairly in 1975.
The clearest sign of foot-dragging, however, was the disastrous decision to retain Sir Jeremy Heywood as Cabinet Secretary. In practice, the Prime Minister tends to be a figurehead only – most appointments and decisions are made by the Cabinet Secretary. Heywood is known to be pro-EU, with respect, and sanctioned the misuse of government resources during the referendum, such as the notorious propaganda pamphlet.
With Heywood remaining in place the new government’s Brexit strategy lacks credibility. Heywood is thought to favour the UK’s remaining in the European Economic Area. This poses a huge problem for the government.
Germany wants the UK to remain trapped inside the EEA and no wonder. We are the EU’s largest export market and trade with the EU27 at a huge deficit. Moreover British consumers tend to be ripped off by European firms, and pay more, i.e. the profit margin on EU27 exports to the UK tends to be higher than for other markets.
Unlimited immigration, which EEA membership involves, suits German client states such as Poland (the Germans murdered their way to power in Poland by assassinating the country’s president in a plane crash). Being able to dump surplus labour in the UK is an important safety-valve for the Eurozone.
Theresa May has ruled out continued unlimited immigration from the EU27, but with respect these are only words. She is a ruthless machine politician, and machine politicians can only be judged on their actions, not their words. Germany is not going to cave in on labour dumping. It is easy to envisage Mrs May caving in to German demands and keeping the UK in the EEA.
The EEA by the way has its own denunciation provision, requiring 12 month’s notice, in Article 127. The government has made no mention of using Article 127, nor was the EEA highlighted by either side during the referendum campaign.
Immigration from Europe was a key issue, however. It is perfectly clear that the electorate rejected EEA membership as well as EU membership.
The crunch will come in October at the EU summit. Any hint that the government is prepared to back down on immigration controls will doom it.
What Should Happen Next?
I have no confidence in the ability of the May Government to deliver Brexit. They will deliver half of Brexit and get us out of the EU, but are likely to lumber us with EEA membership. The Cabinet is weak, vulnerable to bio-leverage by GO2, exercised via German assets in the Cabinet Office, and does not contain anyone with high intelligence.
It’s easy to see them caving in to Germany. Eurosceptics should start planning for the collapse of the new government now. I respectfully endorse Arron Banks’ call for a new, Brexit grouping on the Right. Such a group could embrace UKIP, Tory Eurosceptics, the DUP and the English Democrats. Labour MPs would be highly unlikely to defect, although some might, but it would be on the side of the working man and woman, and would attract huge working class support.
It is easy to envisage a number of Eurosceptic MPs defecting in the autumn, undermining the government’s majority. Key Eurosceptics have been slapped in the face by Theresa May, and we may see some quite senior defections.
The planning needs to start now. There could be a general election before Christmas.
My sympathies of course to the families and friends of the 84 people, some of them children, cruelly murdered by an Islamic terrorist cell in Nice, very obviously backed by the black German agency in Paris, which has assets in the French police and reports to the DVD in Dachau. It is a sobering thought that the murderous Franco-Tunisian dual national terrorists involved could have used their French passports to walk into the UK.
As I point out in Spyhunter, the intelligence apparatus of the Fifth Republic is essentially Vichyist.