Project hysteria

Express
BREXITEER David Davis has warned “apocalyptic” analysis pumped out by the Government about Britain’s future outside the EU is part of a propaganda war being waged by No 10. The former Brexit Secretary claimed a campaign of “lies and scare tactics” is being prepared by Downing Street to push MPs into supporting Theresa May’s exit deal. He called on Conservatives to “stand firm in the face of the propaganda onslaught” that is being unleashed as part of “project fear 2.0″. All Brexit options are worse than staying in the bloc but leaving without a deal could deliver a 9.3% hit to the economy over the next 15 years, according to official analysis released yesterday. Mr Davis, however, pointed to Treasury forecasts in May 2016 that warned the impact of a leave vote would shrink the economy by 2.1% in the first 18 months when it actually grew by 2.8%. “The Treasury’s forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have, more often, been dramatically wrong,” he said.

Telegraph
Mark Carney has been accused of undermining the Bank of England’s “independence and credibility” after publishing an analysis of the economic impacts of no deal so bleak it has been dubbed “project hysteria”. The Governor of the Bank of England claimed that the UK could endure the worst economic shock since the Second World War if it crashes out of the EU without a deal.  His “doomsday” analysis warned that in such a scenario, the economy will shrink by 8 per cent and be tipped into a recession, property prices will fall by a third, the pound will plummet and interest rates will soar.

Mail
The Bank of England has warned the pound would crash, inflation will soar and interest rates would have to rise in the event of a no deal disorderly Brexit. Bank Governor Mark Carney said the impact of Brexit would depend entirely on whether there was a deal but said he had a duty to spell out what might happen. Mr Carney said the Bank’s job was not to ‘hope for the best but prepare for the worst’ – but his blood-curdling claims will enrage Brexiteers. The figures are contained in a ‘worst case scenario’ published by the Bank which suggests in a last-minute no deal, no transition Brexit Britain’s GDP could plunge rapidly by 8 per cent – much worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

Times
Britain would be plunged into its deepest recession since the 1930s under a disorderly no-deal Brexit, the Bank of England warned yesterday. House prices could fall by 30 per cent, interest rates rise to 5.5 per cent and the economy shrink by 8 per cent — a greater contraction than after the 2008 financial crisis — its worst-case scenario showed. Ben Broadbent, one of the Bank’s deputy governors, said that this would be worse than any crisis since “we went back on gold” and the economy subsequently crashed in 1930. In the 2008 financial crisis the British economy shrank by 6.3 per cent.

Guardian
Theresa May’s campaign to sell her Brexit deal to sceptical MPs and a divided country ran into further difficulties when a string of official economic forecasts concluded that the UK would be better off remaining in the European Union. The Bank of England said on Wednesday that GDP would have been at least 1% higher in five years’ time if the UK had voted to remain, while an official Whitehall analysis concluded that in all Brexit scenarios, including May’s final deal, the UK would be worse off. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, added that in the worst scenario, an unlikely “disorderly no-deal” Brexit, the economy would contract by 8%, house prices would tumble by 30% and interest rates would rise to combat inflation.

Independent
Theresa May‘s Brexit plan will deliver a 3.9 per cent hit to GDP and workers’ wages will be lower than if the UK stayed in the EU, according to the best estimate of government officials. Every region of the country will be worse off in 15 years’ time, with London suffering the greatest damage, the analysis finds. Real wages, after inflation, are expected to be 2.7 per cent lower – despite the claims of Brexiteers that cutting EU migration would allow pay to go up. The analysis does not put a cash figure on the impact of a 3.9 per cent lower GDP, but other independent experts have suggested it equates to around £100bn – or £1,000 a head.

Brexit

Westmonster
No Deal is better than a bad deal, Theresa May used to say. And the British public agree. Problem is, they regard what she’s putting on the table as inferior to taking back control with a World Trade, No Deal Brexit according to the latest Survation poll. Despite the Daily Mail’s pro-May spin today, they themselves admit that: “Asked to choose between Mrs. May’s plan and leaving the EU with No Deal, voters opt for No Deal by 41% to 35%”. It doesn’t exactly feature prominently in their coverage however. Among Leave voters, 60% prefer No Deal to the May plan, with only a third (33%) supporting the government’s EU agreement instead when presented with the choice.

Westmonster
A group of prominent Brexiteer MPs including Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis have written to the Prime Minister, warning her to change course or there will be a No Deal Brexit. They are demanding that the ‘political declaration’ becomes legally binding and that she holds back on handing over £39 billion. The Brexiteers, who also include Priti Patel, Owen Paterson and John Whittingdale, also say: “We have grave concerns that your proposal does not take back control of our borders our money and our laws; does not permit us to negotiate new trade deals with the rest of the world; and does not safeguard our own precious United Kingdom.”

Mail
MPs will vote on Theresa May‘s Brexit deal after a marathon five-day debate in Parliament. The House of Commons will debate the deal secured by the Prime Minister before the all-important vote on December 11. MPs will be able to put down six amendments to the Government’s key ‘meaningful vote’ Brexit motion under plans unveiled for the crunch Commons showdown. The debates themselves will last for eight hours a day, a total of forty hours, and are sure to be lively as the Prime Minister battles to secure a majority to back her plans.

Express
THERESA May faces a race against time and has 40 hours to save Brexit as the Prime Minister prepares for a marathon Commons debate before MPs vote on her deal on December 11. The Commons will embark on an unprecedented five days of debates leading up to the most crucial vote in recent history. In an attempt to salvage her highly controversial withdrawal agreement with the European Union Mrs May is set to pull out all the stops in order to gain support from MP’s. These marathon 8-hour debates in the House of Commons will take place on December 4, 5, 6, 10 and 11.

Ireland

Express
THE GOVERNMENT could easily have solved the problems presented by the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish border after Brexit – but opted to do nothing about them, instead blithely accepting the need to stay in what is effectively a Customs Unions, economists has said. Shankar Singham, Director of the International Trade and Competition Unit (ICTU) at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) think-tank, was speaking after a commitment to explore the possible use of technology to prevent a hard border was included in the withdrawal agreement ratified in Brussels over the weekend.

Legal advice

Mail
Ministers were today warned they could be held in ‘contempt of Parliament’ after refusing to publish the full legal advice on Theresa May‘s Brexit deal. The views of Attorney General Geoffrey Cox on whether the UK will be locked into the so-called Irish border ‘backstop’ are thought to have been crucial in the package being passed by Cabinet. Earlier this month the Commons endorsed a ‘Humble Address’ tabled by Labour demanding the opinion be released. But Chancellor Philip Hammond insisted today that only a summary of the advice will be released, warning it would be ‘impossible for the Government to function’ if such confidential material was made public in full.

Telegraph
John Bercow has warned ministers they could be held in contempt of Parliament and face expulsion if they fail to comply with a demand by MPs to publish the Government’s full Brexit legal advice. Theresa May intends to ignore a binding vote of the House of Commons which demanded that the Government provide its full legal advice to MPs before the meaningful vote on her deal.   Mrs May said MPs would instead be provided with a summary of the legal position on the Brexit agreement as she placed the Government on a collision course with Parliament.

Morning Star
JEREMY CORBYN exposed Theresa May’s hypocrisy in her withholding of Brexit legal advice yesterday by surprising her with a letter she had sent to the last Labour government that demanded they publish the legal advice they had received over the Iraq War. During Prime Minister’s Questions the Labour leader urged the PM to reveal to MPs the “warts and all” legal advice on her unpopular Brexit deal so that they can make an informed decision over whether to let it pass through parliament on December 11. He said she should “practise what she preached” and told MPs that she, as shadow leader of the Commons, had written to the then PM Gordon Brown in 2007 to demand the legal advice on invading Iraq.

Independent
Labour has demanded that Theresa May publishes the full legal advice on her Brexit deal and Irish backstop proposal, as concerns mount the government will publish only a summary. Writing to the Cabinet Office minister David Lidington, the party’s shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer is now seeking an “urgent assurance” that all advice handed to ministers will be made available to MPs in the next couple of days. Sir Keir made clear the Commons “will accept nothing short” of the legal advice already presented to cabinet, adding: “A legal summary is clearly not sufficient and will not comply with the unanimous decision made by the House of Commons.”

EU

Express
ROMANIA’S Finance Minister has demanded a curb to EU citizens’ freedom of movement. Eugen Teodorovici insisted the right for people to work and move around the EU should have a time limit. Romania joined the EU in January 2007, but Mr Teodorivici believed there should be a five-year limit on work permits. He feared the number of people emigrating from Romania was causing a “brain drain” on the country’s talent and causing an East/West divide across the continent. Hundreds of thousands of Romanians have left to work across the EU, with many moving to the UK. Mr Teodorovici said: “It may sound restrictive, but that’s the way it is.

Guardian
Theresa May is expected to have to delay her arrival at the next EU summit if the British parliament votes down her Brexit plan, to allow the bloc’s 27 leaders to hold emergency talks and trigger their no-deal preparations. MPs are on track to reject the prime minister’s deal just two days before the next meeting of heads of state and government in December. While there will be a clamour in the UK for the prime minister to start renegotiating in Brussels, senior EU sources suggested leaders would be loth to hold any such talks with May at the summit starting 13 December.

Express
FOUR years of negotiations have failed to yield a breakthrough on a new treaty between Switzerland and the European Union, by far its biggest trading partner. 
The Swiss cabinet is due to address the situation this week. Leaders doubt that any proposed treaty could win the backing of parliament or from voters in a referendum under the Swiss system of direct democracy. Failure of the talks could send shock waves through Switzerland that go far beyond a diplomatic deep freeze. Switzerland is currently experiencing a deadlock and tit-for-tat bartering that could be facing Britain in the very near future if May’s deal is signed off by MPs on December 11th. The EU will hold the cards in terms of negotiation of future trade deals with Europe – much like it does with the Swiss.

World Trade

Westmonster
US Ambassador Woody Johnson has reiterated how important it is for the UK to take back control with a fully independent trade policy, reiterating once again that the UK would be “head of the line” for a deal with Trump’s America. Ambassador Johnson has written for The Times about how “the United States is ready to get straight to work”, is “enthusiastic” about a UK-US deal and that “the United States is ready to get straight to work”. Despite the naysayers casting doubt he also talks up the prospects of a mutually beneficial deal: “Together, we have the chance to set an example of what fair, free and reciprocal, win-win trade really looks like.”

Express
DONALD Trump offered a free trade deal “on a plate” to Theresa May when he met her at Chequers, but the Prime Minister turned him down, an ex-minister has claimed. Owen Paterson says Mr Trump’s aides told him he made the offer the UK, but Mrs May said she “wasn’t ready”. The Brexit bombshell comes after the American leader suggested Mrs May’s deal with the rest of the European Union could rule out a trade deal between Britain and his country. Mrs May quickly hit back, insisting early trade talks with the US were going “really well”. But Mr Paterson, the former environment secretary, said: “When I visited the US in September I was told by people close to the administration that Trump had made an offer but Mrs May told him the UK wasn’t ready.

NHS

Sun
WORKLOADS for GPs are reaching “saturation point” as they order more than three times as many tests than 15 years ago, scientists have said. The diagnostics cost the NHS over £2.8billion a year, even using conservative estimates. And reviewing results is increasing pressure on doctors, the researchers from institutions including Oxford and Stanford universities point out. Lead author Dr Jack O’Sullivan, of Oxford University, said: “Our results support other evidence that suggests general practice workload in the UK is reaching saturation point. “Similarly, our results indicate the burden of tests ordered by general practitioners on NHS expenditure.”

Independent
Contingency plans to ensure the supply of medicines and other health services will be triggered before Christmas if Theresa May’s Brexit deal fails to get MP’s backing next month, the head of NHS England has admitted. Simon Stevens, told the Commons Health Committee that plans for a no deal Brexit, some costing “tens of millions of pounds”, would need activating within weeks if the transition plan is voted down on 11 December. Contracts to take on additional warehouses and refrigerator capacity for drug stockpiles and other biological materials would be included in these expenses. “In my view, the planning has been extensive, but aspects of these plans will need to be given the go ahead this side of Christmas and some early in the New Year,” Mr Stevens said.

Huffington Post
The growing Tory rebellion over Theresa May’s Brexit deal has forced her to shelve the launch of a long-term plan for the NHS, HuffPost UK has learned. According to NHS England sources, the prime minister had been expected to unveil the much-anticipated 10-year plan for the health service at a hospital in Leeds on Monday, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock also pencilled in to attend. But with May and her team focused on whipping up Conservative support for her divisive Brexit deal, the PM’s announcement has been put on ice until after Parliament’s key vote, scheduled for December 11. With the Tories having come under repeated fire for suggesting there will be a “Brexit dividend” for the NHS, there are fears that including the NHS plan in the run up to the “meaningful vote” could risk linking new cash for the health service directly to Brexit and May’s deal.

Carl Sergeant

Guardian
The first minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones, has told an inquest that it would have been wrong for him to give a cabinet member details of allegations made by women about his conduct before he sacked him. Jones said he was worried that if he had told Carl Sargeant exactly why he was being dismissed it risked exposing the identities of the women who had made the complaints. The first minister said he did not contact Sargeant after sacking him because he felt it was not appropriate to do so. He revealed he had told Sargeant to be careful about his behaviour three years before his death after receiving an anonymous letter in which the writer claimed he was not “fit to be around women”.

Sky News
Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones told an inquest he did not receive an “outright denial” from cabinet minister Carl Sargeant after he sacked him over sexual misconduct allegations. On the third day of the inquest into Mr Sargeant’s death, Mr Jones said after telling the then secretary for communities and children he could no longer serve in his cabinet, the “panicked” politician gave an “unusual” response. Mr Sargeant, 49, was dismissed on 3 November last year after allegations were made concerning his sexual conduct. The father-of-two was found dead four days later by his wife at his home in Connah’s Quay, North Wales. Mr Sargeant had not been told what the allegations were or who had made them, but he had denied the allegations to others.

ITV News
Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones told an inquest that cabinet minister Carl Sargeant did not give him an “outright denial” as he sacked him after “bombshell” sexual misconduct allegations. Mr Jones, watched by Mr Sargeant’s wife Bernadette, his son Jack, and other family members on the third day of the inquest into his death, said after telling the then cabinet secretary for communities and children he could no longer serve in his cabinet, the “panicked” politician gave an “unusual” response. Mr Jones sacked Mr Sargeant, 49, on November 3 last year, during a government re-shuffle, after allegations surfaced of sexual misconduct.

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