We all know that the EU was started by the French and Germans. It was a means of fabricating a trading friendship to prevent future bloodshed and continental dominance. Many in France (a founding member) are currently having severe doubts about the EU project. A collapse of French support could deal a fatal blow to the creation of the EU superstate.
The forces of doubt are embodied in the Front National (FN) led by Marine Le Pen. The FN took 17.9% of the vote at the last Presidential election and more recently secured 2 seats in the Senate. In some Departments the vote for FN was close to 30%. For the next Presidential election (first round), Monsieur Hollande and his socialists are presently only polling at 13% with the FN polling at 32%. The chance of Marine Le Pen winning a second round and becoming President is not far fetched. She certainly has a much better chance than Nigel has of becoming PM.
The consequence to the EU of a Le Pen victory would be an earthquake. Le Pen would wish to see a complete roll-back of French EU integration and a return to a trading bloc devoid of Brussels. The timing of the Presidential election is also significant as it occurs in 2017; the same year as the (improbable) UK referendum. It could be that irrespective of who is in power in the UK, referendum or not then France’s decisions will decide the fate of the UK’s position over the EU. An EU without France is frankly untenable and our UK politicians would appear powerless as the EU unraveled. It would make the debate about our referendum look like a irrelevant sideshow.
For UKIP this could be both good and bad. Good, because the EU question would have been settled but bad as a main reason to support UKIP would have vanished. With that in mind and to survive, it is imperative that UKIP scales up and has a coherent range of policies that appeal to the electorate.
As the French economy continues to dive and Hollande’s socialist policies become increasingly unpopular, the FN and Marine Le Pen move ever closer to power. We know that the French have a track record at being more politically demonstrative. France holds the key: the maker is best placed to destroy its creation. Let’s pray for a new French Revolution to liberate us all.