On Monday 27 June many of us could be setting out for work with a spring in our stride and hope in our hearts following a vote to leave the EU.
However, would such optimism be justified?
There can be no doubt that Cameron and his cronies are committed to remain in the EU, an EU which, contrary to Cameron’s claims, will not and can not reform. We have seen other countries being forced to vote time and again until they produce the ‘right’ result. Whilst that might not happen here we can be sure than an ‘out’ vote will be met with a tirade of excuses and ‘reasons’ for delay. We might even fail in getting a majority in the HoC for taking the necessary first steps. Even if that were not the case do we really trust them to front up a likely two years or more of ‘negotiation’ under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?
Given Cameron’s resounding success in his recent negotiations we already start at a disadvantage; the EU masters know that he is on their side and will agree to anything that they might propose. One thing that we can be absolutely sure of is their unwillingness to give up our financial contribution; a loss which might well curtail their ambitions for years to come.
It seems to me that allowing negotiations under that treaty is simply handing over control of our leaving to the EU itself. The only way to avoid it is to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act, and quickly.
As far as I can see there is no plan in place for dealing with an ‘out’ result. Perhaps we should take that as in indication that we will still have a fight on our hands to put it into effect.
For now our focus on winning the referendum must take precedence over all else but we should also be thinking about how we might force the issue when an ‘out’ vote is resisted by those in power. Even once we are out there remains the ever present danger of a future government wanting to take us back in.
That danger would only be mitigated by the breakup of the EU.
Imagine what it would have been like had we faced an enemy of a Europe, united under the swastika, across the English Channel since 1945. Our ancestors fought in wars against that so should we not fight against its potential reincarnation?
There are other anti-EU groups over there who could be our allies. One might hope that contact has already been established on the quiet and it certainly should be. We might not be in a position to save the world but we can certainly make a difference for our friends in Europe once again whilst taking care of our own interests. The EU will be weaker for our leaving and we should take advantage before it regroups.
The referendum is simply a skirmish in our ongoing battle to leave.