This is an imaginary scenario of what Scotland might be like in the year 2070. 

In the 2020 general election UKIP became the largest party, and with the DUP and a few rogue Tories were able to form a government.  Immediately on his return from the palace, Prime Minister Farage lodged an Article 50 notice with the EU that Britain was leaving, and so the horse-trading started.

Scotland was virtually dominated by the SNP and a deal was reached with Scotland and the EU whereby Scotland held another independence referendum, with the proviso that if Scotland voted for independence they would be granted immediate re-admission to the EU.  The referendum was duly held, and resulted in a narrow vote for independence, and so separation negotiations began immediately.

On January 1st 2022 England left the EU, Scotland became independent and was immediately granted re-admission to the EU.  The EU had been intransigent during the negotiations and the price of Scotland’s immediate re-admission was control of Scotland’s oil being passed to the EU as a “shared natural resource”.  The Scottish government had agreed that this was a price worth paying and had been obliged to agree to this, despite strong public opposition.  Scotland was not the only country to join the EU that day, as Turkey also became an EU entrant, along with some Balkan countries.

By 2030 there was a sizeable Turkish population in Scotland, as they were able to travel there unchecked as Scotland had been obliged to adopt the Schengen Aquis upon re-admission to the EU.  The Scots suspected that many of these immigrants were not actually Turks, as some of them seemed to be speaking a language more akin to Arabic than Turkish, but there was no way of checking where these people had originated.  Many of these immigrants thought that entry to Scotland also meant entry to England, and there was a steady stream of illegal immigrants being deported from England back to Scotland.  This situation got so bad that England had to fortify its border with Scotland and establish regulated crossing points.  England still allowed Scots to live and work in England, as with the Southern Irish, but so many of the Scots coming south seemed to be Turkish immigrants who had acquired Scottish nationality, so England decided to limit this privilege to those Scots who were born before independence.

In 2040 the Scottish economy had been in decline for some time, so the Scottish government decided to abandon the pound and adopt the euro in the hope that this would reverse the decline.  Many Scots were not pleased that the revenues from Scottish oil were mainly being used to bail out the Mediterranean economies.  Scotland also decided to break all ties with England and became a socialist republic.  It elected its first president, and it came as a shock to many Scots when they found that their first president had a distinctly un-Scottish name.  So many indigenous Scots had moved south that Mediterranean Scots now formed the majority of the Scottish population.  The Scottish Parliament now had more MPs from an Islamic background than indigenous Scots, and they adopted their own style of solution to the problem of public drunkenness by drastically limiting pub opening hours and instigating harsh punishment for the excessive drinking that had resulted from economic decline.

2050 saw the Scottish Parliament decide to disband and become a Ruling Council.  The same MPs had been elected for some time, so they decided that the Council itself would choose any new Council members that were needed as they retired or died out.  This would bring continuity to the government and, hopefully, help to solve the dire economic problems that Scotland was suffering.

2060 saw no improvement in the economic situation so the Council decided to impose strict Islamic values to try and solve the problem.  Alcohol was outlawed, with the exception of Scotch whiskey that was distilled for export, as this was about the only export that earned any foreign currency.  Foreign currency was required as the euro was virtually worthless on the International Exchange markets and the rest of Europe was in the same dire economic straits as Scotland.  The president spoke to the Scottish nation after Friday prayers and told the nation:  “We are all in this together.”

2070 saw the 100th birthday of Nicola Sturgeon, the architect of Scottish independence.  She had not been heard of for some time but was allowed a spot on Scottish television as a birthday treat.  This was cut short when she was seen to be weeping behind her veil and saying:  “This is not what I had intended to happen.”

This scenario is fiction at the moment.  Let’s hope it stays that way!

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