UKIP are heading for second place in the UK, and overall the Socialists are preparing to become the biggest bloc after the European elections in May. Not the ‘earthquake’ we hoped for, and the most federalist Parliament for years.
Polls across EU 28 are now beginning to predict a Socialist domination in the European Parliament according to Pollwatch 2014.
UKIP are expected to land a total of 18 MEPs, up from 13 in 2009, far behind Labour’s 29 seats, and just squeaking above the Conservatives who are on course for 15. The Lib Dems can expect to lose 8 MEPs and manage a paltry 4, just one more than the SNP. Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein, the DUP and the UUP are all expected one apiece.
The overall results predicted by the team from the London School of Economics and Trinity College, Dublin predict that the socialist grouping, the Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, which includes France’s Socialist Party, Germany’s Social Democratic Party, Italy’s Democratic Party as well as the UK Labour Party, could expect 221 seats just under 30% of the total seats available.
The second largest group is likely to be the centre-right Group of the European Peoples’ Party, taking 202 or 27% of the seats.
The Conservative Party belongs to the Group of the European Conservative and Reformists Group which can expect, according to the methodology, 42 seats in total representing 5.6% of the total.
UKIP’s grouping, the Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group, is on course to grab a total of 30 seats, 4% of the total.
The Liberal Democrat’s group, the Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe, should end up with 64 seats, 8.5% of the available seats.
The Green group get 44 seats in total, the Left/Nordic Green Alliance win 56 seats, and non-attached members 91 seats, all according to the pollsters.
A country by country breakdown can be found at PollWatch2014