We asked our readers to send us informal snapshots of the change in voting intentions after a debate or after their work on street stalls, in order to get a picture from the experience of the foot soldiers on the ground, as it were, as opposed to the phone polls by the big polling institutes.
We all know by now that the polls by the big polling institutes are made on behalf of vested interests. We also know, from our experiences in the last year (EU Parliamentary elections, GE, by-elections, local, assembly, Scottish and NI Parliamentary elections) that these polls are used as propaganda material and not as bona-fide snapshots of actual opinions – the way the questions are asked, the selection of people polled and the methods of actual polling illustrate that.
So here is our result – certainly biased, and certainly a ‘propaganda instrument’! Because so many of you are working your socks off, not many entries were received, so without further ado, we’ll publish each and every entry in full.
First up is the straw poll by a leafletter on the streets:
Hi, I’m one of the lackies giving leaflets to passers by.
Was at Horncastle Lincolnshire three weeks ago on the entrance to a Tesco carpark with the local branch. Over three hours probably 200 people were spoken to. I would say 65% leave, 5% stay and balance don’t knows.
Was at Sutton on sea, again Lincolnshire, on Sat. (June 4th), three hours again. About another 200 folk leafleted. This time 60% leave, 25% stay and balance don’t knows. The thing is Horncastle were all locals, Sutton on sea included a lot of trippers from South Yorkshire mainly.
The one thing I should have asked the one remainer who was willing to chat (very unusual in my short experience) was: “Which way would you vote if we were being asked whether or not to join the EU if we weren’t a member?”
However when his wife and kids joined us she was an outer and was surprised as he had been an outer last week. We asked her to work on him.
Next up, here’s the estimate, before and after, from a local debate:
I attended a local debate in a church hall in a nearby Labour Ward (Church Street, London NW1 area). About 35 people in the audience: one undecided, four remain and 30 Leave. At the end: one undecided still, two remain and 32 Leave.
Every vote counts and now we have two more.
The next entry also gives the results after a debate:
Chedworth village in The Cotswolds (Glos) held a debate on Saturday [June 4th].
The event was chaired by a local retired barrister, and included Prof. Anand Menon (Professor of European Politics at Kings College, London) who offered expert comment on the claims and counter-claims.
Remain was represented by Julie Girling MEP (SW England, Con) and Cllr Doina Cornell (Lab, Stroud DC).
Leave was represented by David T.C. Davies MP (Monmouth, Con) and Lance Warrington, a local businessman.
Before the event, of 70 attendees it was 44.6% Remain 40% Leave and 15.4% undecided.
After the event that had changed to 45.7% Remain 45.7% Leave and 8.6% undecided.
Keep up the good work!
Chris Harlow, Chairman, UKIP Cotswolds
The following entry came to the website. It covers the last months, and is very interesting indeed:
Devon Straw Polls
Cullompton 26th March very quiet day but virtually all for out
Tiverton 88 OUT 10 IN 25 UNDECIDED 9th April
Axminster 68 OUT 9 IN 13 UNDECIDED 23rd April
Honiton to follow lost my sheet but know very high OUT
Cullompton 80% OUT 16% IN 4% UNDECIDED 4th June
Tiverton Stall due again on Saturday 11th
And finally, this snapshot from a debate which suggests that the Remain campaign takes such small local debates very seriously indeed:
About 100 people in room, six “experts” (five of them failed to declare they had previously written pro remain material)
A two hour debate, at the end one remainer had changed to leave. The audience was split 50-50 and this was in a constituency where Leave consider that Leave have 70% support, a figure that Remain privately agree seems accurate.
What is the take-home message from these few reports? Firstly, that the personal interactions of all you Leave activists is invaluable – you’re the ones getting the voters, not the big guns from Parliament!
Secondly, that the polling data from the polling institutes are not giving the whole picture, for the reasons touched upon in the introduction.
Thirdly and finally, that even at local level, Remain is using dirty tricks to sway voters (see the last report).
So – onwards and upwards! It’s your sterling work which will get the votes, and yes, every single vote counts, every single engagement with the undecideds is valuable!