Following the earthquake of last Thursday’s by-elections, several of the papers predict the outcome of next year’s General Election.

The Mail predicts the number of seats for each party.

Nationwide support for Nigel Farage’s Ukip has soared to an all-time high 25 per cent – enough for the party to take Parliament by storm with well over 100 MPs and a possible Labour Election victory.

That is the shock result of a Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, carried out after Ukip rocked the Tories and Labour in two by-elections last week.

If the poll result was repeated in next year’s General Election, it would see the Tories lose 100 seats, the certain resignation of David Cameron – and the possibility of Ed Miliband in No10.

To stop him, the Conservatives would have to join forces with Ukip and other parties from Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The sensational Survation poll shows the Tories and Labour level pegging on 31 per cent, six ahead of Ukip, with the Lib Dems on a paltry eight.

The Times reports on a similar theme.

UKIP is on course to win up to 25 seats at the next election and could even eclipse the Liberal Democrats, according to an internal analysis of private polling data leaked to The Sunday Times.

A senior Ukip figure said party bosses believe the results of the Clacton and Heywood and Middleton by-elections last week have shown Ukip is “competitive” in twice as many seats as they had previously thought and the party will now target 25 instead of 12 seats.

As Ukip’s ambitions rise, the party’s first elected MP revealed last night that it was close to persuading a Labour MP to defect.

And even the Mirror joins in the predictions.

Surge in Ukip support following Clacton success would see them secure ‘128 seats in election’

Ukip has surged to 25 per cent in the polls and the soaring level of support would secure the party an astonishing 128 MPs in a general election, experts have claimed.

In a staggering study for the Mail on Sunday fresh off the back of the eurosceptic party’s by-election victory in Clacton, Nigel Farage has won the support of one in four voters and is on course to send shockwaves through parliament.

The Survation poll put the party on an all-time high and analysis has found that a repeat in May next year would see the Conservatives lose 100 seats and Ed Miliband in No 10.

Labour and the Tories are both on 31 per cent while the Liberal Democrats are on 8 per cent, according to the research for the newspaper.

Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71.

General Election

The Guardian speculates on how the new Parliament would work after May next year.

Aftershock … how Britain’s parties will negotiate the new political landscape

  1. Another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. Odds: 3/1

The stakes

With Labour struggling, some MPs now believe David Cameron’s party could be the largest (in share of the vote, or number of MPs, or both). But few rate the Tories’ chances of an overall majority with Ukip on the scene. So Cameron could be looking to Nick Clegg for a second coalition. The Lib Dem leader is thought to favour this over a deal with Labour.

The issues

Europe will be key. Cameron has promised his party an in/out referendum on EU membership by the end of 2017. Pro-EU Lib Dems will be wary of agreeing to this, if it might mean the UK votes to quit. That would be a disastrous political legacy for Clegg. Some Lib Dems say Clegg would refuse an in/out vote (current Lib Dem policy is that there should be one only if there is a treaty change). Others think he could agree in return for big prizes, such as House of Lords reform and PR in local elections. The Lib Dems would also try to block Tory benefit cuts for the “working poor”.


In other news, a former environment secretary will claim this week that unless the Climate Change Act is withdrawn, the lights will go out across the UK.  His words are published in the Telegraph

Britain will struggle to “keep the lights on” unless the Government changes its green energy policies, the former environment secretary will warn this week.

Owen Paterson will say that the Government’s plan to slash carbon emissions and rely more heavily on wind farms and other renewable energy sources is fatally flawed.

He will argue that the 2008 Climate Change Act, which ties Britain into stringent targets to reduce the use of fossil fuels, should be suspended until other countries agree to take similar measures. If they refuse, the legislation should be scrapped altogether, he will say.

…and the Mail.

Former Environment Secretary Owen Paterson will this week deliver a stark warning – that Britain will ‘run out of electricity’ unless it abandons its main green energy target.

Mr Paterson, who was sacked from the Cabinet in this summer’s reshuffle, will argue in a lecture that the target enshrined in the Climate Change Act – which binds the UK to reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 – is unaffordable.

He will go on to say that the current energy policy is a ‘slave to flawed climate action’, and warn that ‘in the short and medium term costs to consumers will rise dramatically’.

In Wednesday’s lecture, organised by the ‘sceptic’ think-tank Global Warming Policy Foundation, which is chaired by former Tory chancellor Lord Lawson, he will say: ‘There can only be one ultimate consequence: the lights will go out.’

Child abuse

The Mail covers child abuse at Muslim schools which are run according to sharia law.

A school run by a Muslim hardliner was citing sharia in its child protection policies, it emerged yesterday.

Ofsted inspectors found that Al-Aqsa school in Leicester operated on the basis that ‘Ulama’ – Islamic scholars – should be consulted in child abuse and welfare cases, as well as ‘relevant outside agencies’.

The school – founded by Ibrahim Hewitt, an Islamist fundamentalist who says homosexuals should be lashed – declared ‘sharia and the law of the land will be the prime arbiters in child protection concerns’.

This raised the prospect of a different level of protection for Muslim children, said critics.

Ofsted made it clear only British law should be followed.



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