Most of us have probably seen the headlines over the Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday: they estimate 53% would vote to leave the EU, despite all the bluster from the Tory Party, the EU propaganda machine (including the BBC) and the Mainstream Media (MSM). That’s the headline, what about the detail facts underlying the poll?

The first thing to look at is the historical trend of voters between the Remain, Leave and Undecided camps, which is shown in this graph:

remain leave 2

Interestingly, both the confirmed Remain and Leave levels have remained broadly static over the last four months with their ups and downs. What has “hardened” is the “Undecided” vote. In this author’s estimation, there are more people who are torn between what they see and hear with their own eyes with respect to the various EU disasters in terms of immigration, social order, parties and governments in other parties and terror events, against all the propaganda being fed to them at their own expense paid for by their own taxes and TV licences.

Digging down into the poll, there is a General Election question, and UKIP there shows up at 16.8%, which is fairly encouraging, despite the lack of significant press coverage of the party or general leaflet campaigns.

The place to look in the detail tables for the Referendum question (and answers) is Table 11, which is with “Normal weightings & likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused removed.” This has analysed the referendum vote by a number of categories, firstly, by “Next General Election” voting intention:

  • Conservative 57.4%
  • Labour 36.2%
  • Lib Dem 16%
  • UKIP 89% (which begs the question of the 11%, “why are you voting UKIP then?”)

So, if you live in a predominantly Tory area, you need to work pretty hard on the 43% of Tory voters who want to Remain, and in Labour areas, somewhat harder on the 64%. In terms of age group, it looks like this:

  • 18-34 = 35.5%
  • 35-54 = 53.8%
  • 55+    = 63.8%

So, has the propaganda directed at schools had an effect on the youngsters? Either way, you need to work harder on them – I know with my own family that they tend to see the EU as a “safe option”, not realising how dangerous the EU is in terms of its longer-term plans. I put them right on it, of course! In terms of social class, the answers are interesting:

  • AB = 42.7%
  • C1/C2 = 58%
  • DE = 55.9%

This is an interesting statistic – a majority of ABs want to Remain – how many of them are “on the gravy train” then, in either government or multi-nationals? It is the rest, the people who see their jobs and wealth threatened, perhaps, who have a preference to Leave. There is another interesting facet – this result is back to front with the Conservative/Labour split, which does suggest that it is now better paid/qualified people who are voting Labour, and less well-paid/qualified people voting Conservative (and UKIP, of course).

In terms of Leavers, the strong regions are basically England outside of London. Of London voters, only 43.3% want to leave, the reasons being fairly obvious from their demographic, but Wales is down at 38.4% in terms of Leavers (which is somewhat at odds with the strengthening UKIP vote for the Assembly elections) and Scotland 43%, not a total lost cause then. What a coup if the Leave campaign could get 50.1% in Scotland, totally spiking Nicola Sturgeon’s guns! Significantly, the strongest regional Leave vote is Northern Ireland, on  68.3%.

So, there you have it. There is hope for a successful campaign, but watch out for the rabbits that slippery Dave and the traitorous BBC will be pulling out of the EU hat over the coming months.

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