Many may be thinking that a Conservative led referendum on EU membership will be a great opportunity to clear the air and settle matters. But like a poisoned chalice, it will have dire consequences. Voting YES will mean more to this great country of ours than they may realise.
In October 1974, the polls showed that the public were four to three in favour of leaving what was then the European Economic Community. But asked how they would vote if Wilson renegotiated a deal and recommended staying in, the polls showed they would back him by two to one, which is what they did in the actual referendum.
Ah, you say, but that was 40 years ago and everything is different now, people won’t be fooled again; we are better informed and less trusting. But are they? A YouGov poll in 2013, asking whether people wanted to be in or out of the EU showed 42 per cent wanting to leave, 36 per cent wanting to stay , 17 per cent don’t knows and 4% won’t vote. When they were then asked how they would vote if David Cameron recommended staying in after re-negotiating a deal, the figures changed dramatically, with 50 per cent wanting to stay, only 25 per cent wanting to leave, 20 per cent don’t knows and 5% won’t vote.
This “trick” has already shown it can still fool voters if it is accompanied by leading questions as well and a well funded “yes” campaign.
Cameron is simply rehashing the Harold Wilson trick, in slow motion. If the Conservatives were to form a government, or if later Labour had a new leader who supports an EU referendum (which I doubt) and the referendum can’t be kicked into the long grass…..again, then there is a trump card of the EU’s 6 monthly presidency to use, from July 2017.
If we get a referendum “that’s brilliant” I hear you say, but actually it’s just what we don’t want, because it’ll just be a repeat of 1975.
The stage is being set as part of the “Yes” campaign, in the latter half of 2017 to coincide with our turn to chair the EU Council of Ministers. Couple that up with a promise to “re-negotiate a better deal on EU membership”, will probably be enough to fool the majority of voters. To make sure this message gets home, media focus will be on talks and items, to make it look as though the UK is at the centre of the EU with heaps of “influence” driving debates, but no re-negotiations will have started on EU membership terms. The rules strictly forbid treaty change talks outside the Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) process. The pro EU “medja” especially the BBC(Brussels Broadcasting Corp), will somehow neglect to mention this fact, but comments made will appear to indicate the “negotiations” are “going well” and “concluding soon”, “looking promising”, “just tidying up” etc. etc.
Negotiations will not have started, until 2018 in an IGC, and those talks could last for up to 5 years, maybe even longer. So there will be NOTHING agreed for people to vote on, in that referendum, just vague promises.
It would also coincide with the political parties conference season, in October 2017, to maximise coverage of his pledge to “re-negotiate a better deal on EU membership”….. (and then add)” and recommends STAYING IN” All the other parties will be parroting out this message (except UKIP of course), and UKIP coverage will be kept to a minimum, unless disparaging articles can be found.
There is another factor that should be taken into account. If immigration continues at the current levels of 300,000(net), then as time goes by, the numbers of those people with a vested interested in continuing EU membership will climb. Who can or can’t vote in this referendum has not yet been settled, but my guess is all EU migrants will get one each along with their cats and dogs. What about day trippers from Europe, will they be offered a vote, too?
There are two likely scenarios that have probably already been planned by the pro EU LIBLABCONSNP government to have the same outcome.
a/The voters as before in 1975, are fooled by the “trick”, and the referendum indicates to stay in the EU empire. The “negotiations” would stop, before they’ve even started. Done deal , job well done, they’ll pat themselves on the back as far as LIBLABCONSNP is concerned.
Result? UK subsumed into the United States of Europe, at an even faster rate. We would adopt the Euro, Justice, convert our army into an EU Army, the whole nine yards (or is that metres) before our feet touch the floor.
b/The voters are not fooled this time by the “trick” and say NO. That’s a great relief for me and UKIP, isn’t it? Wrong, the pro EU Government would delay the decision to invoke Article 50, until after the negotiations were completed “ to make sure the voters knew what they meant when they said “NO”, taking several years. In the meantime, the Government will continue to hold referendums, leaking deals not struck yet, until the “right” answer is achieved,(see scenario (a) when this happens).
”Advisers in No.10 told me that they would look to get JUST ENOUGH CHANGE to convince people to vote to stay in, in a referendum,” said Douglas Carswell MP
A referendum with the caveat of “renegotiations” isn’t worth the paper it is written on… to us….. but for them…Pro-EU politicians, it’s worth riches beyond the dreams of avarice, in that it will be used to give our membership the legitimacy and consent they so desperately crave for, to proceed to the next stage, a United States of Europe.
Will UKIP be making this point clear to the voters?
To have a Europhile government in office, whatever political ilk, holding a referendum on EU membership will be the coup de grâce moment for the UK if the Yes camp wins. it would be better to wait for an anti-EU party like UKIP, otherwise the referendum will be the United Kingdoms epitaph.
“the end of one thousand years of history”.
Photo by Kyknoord