Between now and the General Election in 2015, we will hear much about how a UKIP vote is a wasted vote.
The Tories will tell us that voting for UKIP will allow Ed Miliband into power. The media will continue to tell us that we are all appalling racists. The Labour Party (which has largely ignored us until now) will most likely try to spread stories about the NHS or jump onto the ‘racist’ bandwagon.
But what are we actually trying to achieve in the General Election? Well, ideally we would like to see Nigel in 10 Downing St but he has himself said that this is currently unlikely, at least in 2015.
So, why would we vote for a party if we think that there is little chance of it forming the next government? The answer, surprisingly, is that the First Past The Post (FPTP) can work to our advantage, even if we are not to be the largest party in the House Of Commons.
Current speculation is that between 50 and 60 percent of the UKIP vote in the Euro elections will also vote for UKIP in 2015. This will work out at about 15-16% of the vote. Nigel has said that about a third of UKIP’s voters come from the Tories. That is enough to deprive the Tories of an election victory and probably enough to ensure that they are not even the single largest party in Westminster.
What will this mean? Well, we already know that the modern Tory party is deceitful and dishonourable (http://ukipdaily.com/im-angry-dont-want-pact-tories/), a party which has no principles and which now exists purely as a mechanism to enable ambitious people like Cameron to gain power. It will not survive when it is clear that the party will never again hold power.
What happens to a Westminster party when it is clear that it will never again hold power? It becomes the Liberals. There is an exodus from the party. A small core of loyalists remains. A few MPs haunt the backbenches of Westminster, the best they can ever hope for is a few crumbs to be thrown their way in the occasional hung parliament. They effectively become irrelevant.
People of my age may remember the refrain “a Liberal vote is a wasted vote”. That will become “a Tory vote is a wasted vote”.
This is the nightmare vision that David Cameron dreads, but now knows will almost certainly happen.
And what happens to all those ex-Tory voters? The modernisers may well join the LebDems, but they are few and far between and don’t matter in electoral terms. The remainder will go to the only party that remotely reflects their values. Then UKIP will replace the Tories.
In summary, UKIP are in a “win-win” situation. If we win the 2015 General Election then great, if we lose it then we still win – just a bit later on.
This is why it is so very important that we hold our nerve and never enter into any pact with the Tories. They are the past, we are the future.
Photo by One Way Stock