Theresa May’s call for a Hard Brexit will not shoot UKIP’s fox, but it’ll be UKIP which shoots itself if reforms are not soon brought about.
Come May 4th, UKIP will be fighting to hold the 147 county council seats it won in 2013. Given the current dismal state of affairs within the Party; we are poised to lose the vast majority of our seats, which will threaten us from going forward.
Twenty-seven non-metropolitan county councils and seven unitary authorities in England will have all of their seats up for grabs, with the one-third of the seats on the Bristol unitary authority in contention.
The following predictions for UKIP are the following:
Buckinghamshire: 0 seats (–6)
Cambridgeshire: 1 seat (–11). UKIP will hold Ramsey, currently held by Peter Reeve.
Derbyshire: 0 seats – No Change.
Devon: 0 seats (–4)
Dorset: 0 seats (–1)
East Sussex: 0 seats (–7)
Essex: 4 seats. UKIP will hold its two seats in Laindon Park and Fryerns. One was picked up in 2013, and the other in a by-election in May of 2016. Labour previously held both positions. We will gain both seats in Pitsea from Labour.
We have lost two county council seats in Essex in by-elections in the past three years. Both of these losses were to the Tories. Net loss of 5 seats from the 2013 elections.
Gloucestershire: 0 seats (–3)
Hampshire: 0 seats (–10)
Hertfordshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Kent: 2 seats (Both in Ramsgate) (–15)
Lancashire: 0 seats. No Change.
Leicestershire: 0 seats (-2)
Lincolnshire: 5 seats (-11) Boston will be the epicentre of the UKIP victories.
Norfolk: 1 seat. (-14) UKIP will hold the Yarmouth Nelson & Southdown division.
North Yorkshire: 0 seats (-2)
Northamptonshire: 0 seats (-3)
Nottinghamshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Oxfordshire: 0 seats. No change.
Somerset: 0 seats (-3) All three seats will be picked up by the Liberal Democrats.
Staffordshire: 0 seats (-2) seats.
Suffolk: 1 seat (-8) UKIP will hold Brandon.
Surrey: 0 seats (-3)
Warwickshire: 0 seats. No Change.
West Sussex: 1 seat (-9) UKIP will hold Lancing.
Worcestershire: 0 seats (-4)
Bristol: 0 seats. No Change.
Cornwall: 0 seats (-6)
Durham: 0 seats. No Change.
Isle of Wight: 0 seats (-2)
Isle of Scilly: 0 seats. No Change.
Northumberland: 0 seats. No Change.
Shropshire: 0 seats. No Change.
Wiltshire. 0 seats (-1)
UKIP won 147 seats in the county council elections. This prediction leaves UKIP with 15 seats, which is a net loss of 132 from the 2013 elections.
I’ve made these predictions based on a few important factors.
One of these is the surge in support for the Liberal Democrats in the local by-elections since May 2016. Another is the abysmal UKIP by-election results since the EU referendum, but most importantly, the fact that most of the county council elections will be in Tory bastions. UKIP has not countered the Tories in Tory heartlands with a coherent message on the economy. For this reason alone, we deserve to suffer a humiliating defeat due to our failure to adopt a libertarian manifesto, which would be appealing throughout the South.
No, we will not challenge Labour in the North. Get a grip. The Tories are closing in on Labour up North due to the massive Conservative Party lead in North Yorkshire, Lancashire, and Cumbria. UKIP’s North Cumbria chairman realised this and defected on January 18th.
Why are UKIP MEPs FAILING to get the message across? One can only ponder why we even employ anyone in our so-called press office. Any MEP who fails to put out a video a week where they sit or stand in front of the camera and tell people what they did for the country over the past X number of days should be forced to resign, and should never be allowed to stand as a candidate for the Party again.
Every vote in the European Parliament from a UKIP MEP should have a message written on Facebook about what the vote was on, how they voted, and why. If it’s a session where 8237463928 votes are held over the course of 10 minutes, then they may have an explanation, to sum up, what occurred. In addition to this, a video in the European Parliament should be uploaded on Facebook to get the message across. Other political parties around the world do this to perfection, but those at the top of the Party do not. Given the amount of money they make a year, it truly is astounding that they fail to think outside the box. Additionally, all UKIP employees in the press office should have their contracts terminated.
On top of that, all AMs and MEPs should be required to tithe. These funds can then be directed to winnable council seats. Two AMs who refuse to tithe are David Kurten and Peter Whittle. David Who???
Branch chairmen who fail to stand candidates in local by-elections (excluding town councils) should be removed from their positions. It truly begs belief how many local by-elections in the past year have not had a UKIP candidate. If the Branch chairman is incapable of acquiring the 10 signatures to get a candidate on the ballot, then he’s clearly unqualified to lead the branch.
Is it possible to avert these predictions in the next hundred days? Only if UKIP spends all of its available resources in winnable council seats will catastrophe be avoided. Will my advice be heeded? Of course not.
After our defeat, Chairman Oakden should resign in disgrace on the morning of May 5th on live television. In his resignation speech, he should explain to the public that his former boss, Tory MP Andrew Bridgen, said that Oakden is a “political suicide bomber”, and that he “shouldn’t be in politics”. I couldn’t agree more.