Editor ~ This is a follow-up article to “Beer Tokens” by Flyer which can be read here on UkipDaily.
For those of us who voted to leave the EU, we live in troubling times. We are coming to realise that winning the EU Referendum was but a battle; the war is not over. Tony Blair is openly organising to reverse BREXIT. Remoaners are obsessively telling us at every opportunity how we were lied to during the referendum campaign and using this as an argument to think again. There are no shortage of organisations and institutions warning of the woes that will befall us if we leave.
But that is nothing compared to an even greater threat to the BREXIT we voted for; the incompetent, duplicitous and underhand actions of this Conservative Government implementing the mandate handed to them at their instigation by the electorate.
MPs have been demanding that the Government tell them what they are up to, else how can they fulfill their role in Parliament. Yet it is not Parliament but the people who voted to take back control, and how can the people know what control there is going to be when there is so much misinformation, fake news and lies coming from wherever you look. Hopefully, the truth is out there, somewhere.
All we can do is form the best judgement we can based on what seems to be the most reliable sources. And at the moment the judgement is gloomy, to say the least. Are we about to be betrayed by another Conservative Government?
But out of despair, I can offer hope for BREXIT supporters. And a possible golden opportunity for UKIP.
In the event the Government falls, for whatever reason, I think the outcome could be significantly different to what seems to be the consensus prediction; a Labour government.
A previous time the Labour Party fought a general election with a leader from the far-left (Michael Foot) Margaret Thatcher was returned with a whopping majority. But then the issue was not the EU, there was no significant split within the Conservatives and there was no UKIP.
This time THE issue will be the EU, the Conservatives are split and there is UKIP. Plus Labour is equally split with the rise of Momentum. But the most significant factor is not the state of the two main parties but the mood of the electorate.
I think the increase in the Labour vote at the last general election will prove to be a flash in the pan. Some of the youth vote will have had time to realise that the appeal was an illusion. Many “traditional” Labour voters will not support a Momentum dominated party, and while they will not vote Conservative they may well vote UKIP.
An equivalent argument can be made for those who voted Conservative at the last general election. At that time there was a widespread feeling that to ensure BREXIT was delivered it was necessary to vote Conservative. With every passing day that is proving to have been a big mistake. There is every prospect that previous UKIP voters will return to UKIP, and at least some “traditional” Conservative voters will switch to UKIP.
Given the Referendum result, the BREXIT mood in the Country and that there is only one political party that can be relied upon to deliver BREXIT, UKIP could have its best election result ever, and by a long way.
I just cannot see the Country to be so stupid as to elect a Labour government. Obviously, UKIP will not be forming the next government. But it seems to me that with votes falling away from both Labour and Conservative there will be a hung Parliament. In this case, UKIP could have enough MPs to influence a Conservative minority government, much as the DUP is doing now but even more so.
Further, with Momentum undermining the electoral prospects of some sitting Labour MPs they could abandon Labour as a no-hope prospect and stand for UKIP at the election; Labour voters have previously switched to UKIP so why not some MPs in the new circumstance in which they find themselves.
We all understand that UKIP’s electoral prospects are hampered by first-past-the-post; there is no way that is going to change in the near future, so we are just going to have to put all our energies into doing as well as possible with the system as it is.
The critical time is up to March 29th, 2019. Thereafter we can work on the best possible Manifesto for the general election following.
UKIP has a new Leader dedicated to the cause able to bring about sound and effective organisation. We have an ex-Leader, hailed as the most influential politician of modern times, still a Party Member and still pushing the cause at the front. Seems to me a Henry/Nigel duo complementing each other’s attributes at the head of UKIP (Nigel as, say, Chairman, or President or similar – NOT Leader) is a winning combination we can all get behind.
The opportunity is potentially there. If we concentrate on what matters now we can make it a Golden Opportunity.