This morning, the UK General Election 2015 site put this post up. The figures analyse a YouGov poll which asked the question of whether their poll respondents would vote for the same party again, and this is in essence what was said:

Party 2010 Voters Retained % Votes Kept Votes Lost
Con 10,726,465 66.2% 7,100,919 -3,625,545
Lab 8,606,518 69.7% 5,998,743 -2,607,775
LD 6,836,718 25.4% 1,736,526 -5,100,192

So, a heck of a lot of lost Liberal Democrat voters. There have been other polls which have analyzed where their voters went to in terms of future voting intention, and the latest on that is that 42% went to Labour, 14% to the Tories and 10% to UKIP. So, if we factor that in, we get this result:

Party 2010 Voters Votes Kept LD flight % LD Flight After LD Flight % of vote
Con 10,726,465 7,100,919 14% 957,141 8,058,060 30%
Lab 8,606,518 5,998,743 42% 2,871,422 8,870,165 33%
LD 6,836,718 1,736,526 0% 0 1,736,526 7%
UKIP 919,677 919,677 10% 683,672 1,603,349 6%
Lost C + Lab 6,233,320 24%

Now, for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats this broadly aligns with what the opinion polls are saying in terms of the share of the vote – except for UKIP, where the polls now show the party on 12-18% and By Election results putting UKIP consistently over 20%.

However, what has happened to the “lost” Labour and Conservative votes, totalling some 6.2 million? The Liberal Democrats may have attracted a few to them, a very few, and there may have been some “cross floor” defections between Labour and Conservative, but one suspects not many, maintaining the relative position with Labour slightly ahead. A few of the “lost” voters may have decided to become non voters.

There is one final large pool of registered voters as well. They are the ones who did not vote in 2010, who numbered 16.2 million. A few of them might vote for the other parties this time, but the overwhelming evidence from various polls, especially from this one:

piechart1 UKIP vote source

 

…shows that UKIP not only takes votes from the other parties, but uniquely attracts many former non-voters.

One has to conclude that a large proportion of the “lost” Labour and Conservative voters, plus non-voters have headed in UKIP’s direction, and if we assume that UKIP has reached 20% of the vote in reality (ignoring the heavily biased and weighted polls) then that accounts for 3.6 million of those “switch” and non voters , taking the party up to 5.2 million voters, a number to be reckoned with.

However, we are not there yet. There will be a lot of “Don’t Knows” and non-voters who are watching and waiting. What will they be waiting for? Each to his own, but pick from these:

  • The party manifestos, or rather the potted versions of them presented by the MSM.
  • The results of the Euro and 2014 Local Elections, notably in terms of how big a share UKIP gets.
  • Any By Elections along the way.
  • News with a political impact – events which drive voters towards UKIP or away from the party.

UKIP still has a long way to go, but every success the party has, takes UKIP closer to even greater success, bolstering the confidence of the undecided that a vote for UKIP is just that, not a ticket to let Milliband take untrammelled power. We must all work to that end.

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