Well, the results are all in now, and we can sit back and take a look at them, to analyse and to learn for the future.

It’s important to understand how the Welsh Assembly elections work. There are 40 constituencies, indeed the same as the UK Westminster election constituencies, and these are grouped into five regions. Each constituency returns one elected Assembly Member on a first-past-the-post basis, and then each region returns four members on a proportional basis. This uses the same d’Hondt method as the European elections (which is complicated so I won’t attempt to explain it) but it does take into account the constituency results before allocating members from party lists to the regional seats.

Voters have two votes – they place one against the constituency list, and one against the regional list, so tactical voting could well be employed by some voters. And in the two parallel elections, they elect 40 constituency AMs and 20 regional AMs, a total of 60.

It is not unsurprising that UKIP did not take any seats in the individual constituencies, as shown in the table below, but there were some creditable second places in Islwyn (Joe Smyth), Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney (David Rowlands), Newport East (James Peterson), Swansea East (Clifford Johnson) and Torfaen (Susan Boucher):

Constituency Con Lab LD Plaid UKIP UKIP % Place
Aberavon 1342 10578 1248 4176 3119 14.96% 3
Aberconwy 7646 6035 781 6892 0 0.00% N/A
Alyn & Deeside 4558 9922 980 1944 3765 17.35% 3
Arfon 1665 6800 577 10962 0 0.00% N/A
Blaenau Gwent 1334 8442 3000 7792 3423 14.27% 3
Brecon & Radnorshire 7728 2703 15898 1180 2161 7.12% 4
Bridgend 6543 12166 1087 2569 3919 14.60% 3
Caerphilly 2412 9584 386 8009 5954 21.96% 3
Cardiff Central 2317 10116 9199 1951 1223 4.67% 6
Cardiff North 13099 16766 1130 2278 2509 6.70% 3
Cardiff South & Penarth 6353 13274 1345 4320 3716 12.27% 4
Cardiff West 5617 11381 868 10205 2629 8.23% 4
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 4489 5727 837 14427 3474 11.68% 4
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire 10355 6982 699 5459 3300 11.29% 4
Ceredigion 2075 1902 9606 12014 2665 9.04% 3
Clwyd South 4846 7862 2289 3861 3861 16.65% 3
Clwyd West 10831 5246 831 5768 2985 11.38% 4
Cynon Valley 1177 9830 335 3836 3460 17.99% 3
Delyn 5898 9480 1718 2269 3794 16.38% 3
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 3160 2443 960 9566 2149 10.60% 4
Gower 10153 11982 1033 2982 3300 10.93% 3
Islwyn 1775 10050 597 4349 4944 22.16% 2
Llanelli 1937 10267 355 9885 4132 14.70% 3
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 1331 9763 1122 3721 4277 20.68% 2
Monmouth 13585 8438 1474 1824 3092 9.85% 3
Montgomeryshire 9875 1389 6536 2410 2458 10.42% 3
Neath 2179 9468 2179 6545 3780 14.02% 3
Newport East 3768 9229 1481 1386 4333 20.94% 2
Newport West 8042 12157 880 1645 3842 13.84% 3
Ogmore 2587 12895 698 3427 3233 13.84% 3
Pontypridd 3884 9986 2979 4659 3322 13.11% 4
Preseli Pembrokeshire 11123 7193 1677 3957 3286 11.57% 4
Rhondda 528 8432 173 11891 2203 9.38% 3
Swansea East 1729 10726 1574 2744 3274 15.91% 2
Swansea West 3934 9014 2012 3225 3058 13.77% 4
Torfaen 3931 9688 628 2860 5190 22.59% 2
Vale of Clwyd 8792 9560 758 2098 2975 12.30% 3
Vale of Glamorgan 13878 14655 938 3871 3662 9.69% 4
Wrexham 6227 7552 1140 2631 2393 11.76% 4
Ynys Mon 2904 4278 334 13788 3212 12.76% 3
Totals 215607 353961 82342 209376 128072 12.50% 4

In terms of percentages, in the constituency votes it averaged 12.5%, although in Torfaen Susan Boucher managed a very creditable 22.6%, which with four main parties contesting the places (Labour, Conservative, Plaid and UKIP) is a very good result. Mind you, having dismissed the Liberal Democrats as a major player, one must recognise their win of one constituency, and it is interesting to note that where they do well, UKIP does worst, indicating that voters still see UKIP and Liberal Democrat as different types of ‘anti-establishment’ vote.

In the regional lists, slightly more people voted for UKIP, reflecting the two constituencies where UKIP did not field a candidate.

Region Con Lab LD Plaid UKIP UKIP % UKIP Elected Place
Mid and West Wales 44461 41975 23554 56754 25042 11.60% Neil Hamilton 4
South Wales West 25414 66903 10946 29050 23096 13.65% Caroline Jones 4
South Wales East 33318 74424 6784 29686 34524 17.79% Mark Reckless, David Rowlands 2
North Wales 45468 57528 9345 47701 25518 12.48% Nathan Gill, Michelle Brown 4
South Wales Central 42185 78366 14875 48357 23958 10.37% Gareth Bennett 4
TOTALS 190846 319196 65504 211548 132138 13.02% 4

As you can see from the table above, two former MPs are included in the list: Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton, plus UKIP Wales’ leader Nathan Gill (also an MEP) and three others:  Caroline Ones, David Rowlands and Michelle Brown. In her acceptance speech, Michelle said this:

This isn’t my victory or Nathan’s victory, this is a victory of the UKIP people who’ve been out there for years, pushing the message, letting people know that we don’t have two horns and a tail.

Anyway, there you have it, we now have seven UKIP members in the Welsh Assembly, so we look forward to being a strong voice for UKIP in Wales – worth watching their progress in that Assembly, and worth carrying on the push for an English Parliament and proportional representation to give UKIP a voice in the UK’s governance more in proportion to our support.

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