Earlier this week I wrote about the effect of local factors on the outcome of the election on a constituency by constituency basis. Polling company YouGov has attempted to quantify this in a new election centre feature. Not known for being particularly friendly towards Ukip, YouGov is now suggesting a possible eight seats for our party in the May election, up from two yesterday, although it does seem to be fluctuating on a daily basis.
The company has a snazzy graphics system on its website which allows views to zoom in on each constituency in turn. Each is represented by a coloured dot, illustrating which party the pollsters say is the current favourite in each seat.
On Wednesday there were just two purple dots on the map, Thurrock and Clacton. On Thursday morning, and again this morning they were joined by a further six: Rotherham, Great Grimsby, and Dagenham and Rainham – all current Labour seats; the Tories’ South Thanet and Northampton South; and Rochester and Strood, currently held by Ukip convertee Mark Reckless. Yesterday there were six, with some variation.
It’s important to stress that this is not a forecast of the outcome on the day, but what YouGov call a ‘Nowcast’. Explaining the difference, they say:
“It’s a common misconception about opinion polls that they are supposed to be predictions of the final result. Actually, they are a reflection of the current state of play – what people are telling us right now. Of course, people often say one thing and then change their mind once it comes nearer to election day – that’s the whole point of an election campaign.
“For this website we’ve attempted to make this distinction clear. The Nowcast is our best estimate of what the data suggests today. Unlike a forecast, it does not include any hunches, educated guesswork, or predictions of what movement there might be before or on election day.”
The results are based on general national polling of 150,000 respondents, combined with data from 5,000 new daily interviews in order to come up with a localised result. For those of you who are statistically minded, they explain their process in more detail here.
In five constituencies – Clacton, Rochester and Strood, Bradford West, Buckingham and South Thanet – the model is not being used as it is not deemed to be sensitive enough to “hyperlocal considerations”. And some anomolies are already being thrown up – Castle Point doesn’t feature on their list of Ukip hopefuls, yet is showing strong support on the doorstep and has been named as a Ukip hopeful by other pollsters.
Nonetheless, for a small party such as Ukip, it can provide an invaluable tool for helping to direct our limited resources into the seats where they are likely to have the most impact. Don’t discount seats which aren’t being highlighted by YouGov as Ukip hopefuls if you’re hearing rumours that they could do well, but if you find yourself at a loose end for an afternoon and don’t know where to go, try using the Nowcast to find the closest purple dot to you, jump in the car or on the train, and get door-knocking! Your contribution might make all the difference.
Question of the day from Andrew Neil on daily politics to a pollster from Populas today. Why do you not do region polls as these opinion polls tell me nothing. Populas guy did not seem to want to get into the conversation. Because a poll on Essex and Kent alone would start a shockwave.
After all this being said I don’t feel 2015 is the ‘ultimate’ GE for people to reach the point where they really rebel. I reckon the next one will be it and it wont be in 2020, but sooner.
Because of this I think it was a bad idea of Farage to place his ultimatum on the outcome of this GE.
The main parties look like animals caught in quick sand and are doing all they can to stay afloat and keep their heads above the waterline, and though they keep to the staples and core voters they inevitably sink more and more into the quagmire.
You’re right, Donna, it’s starting to get interesting, The facts are, YouGov are the biggest polling organisation, having held 42% of election polls since 1st March (source: Wikipedia Poll of Polls, UK Election 2015).
I have every confidence in their methodology; they are not there to be shot down. Whilst not perfect – they’ve misjudged, in my opinion, Castle Point; it’s a particularly strong potential UKIP seat – their analysis does point to hidden gems.
For example, Rochford and Southend East constituency (predicting 43% Tories, and a close-behind-catching-up-fast 41% UKIP). My experiences there on the ground point to a strong, silent UKIP support (to be realised in the ballot box on May 7th).
I have no doubt that there is, as part of a strong East Angian UKIP momentum, contiguous contagion in Southend West. Again, I can report from UKIP colleagues a most positive picture.
Actually, “door-knocking” can have the same effect as ‘cold calls’ and ‘junk-mail’ if it’s not done with consideration. Setting up tables/stalls and offering leaflets is a much more considerate and appreciated method. I’m not convinced you can change someone’s mind by interrupting what they were doing, before the ‘knock on the door’ (especially from a political canvasser).
Just a personal view of course.:;-)
Meanwhile drove through a part of Thurrock today. I would say looking at the boards Tim Akers has it in the bag fingers crossed.
In my view this General Election is impossible for the polling companies to have any accurate predictions.Never in my lifetime (I’m 46) have I seen the massive rise of a political party like UKIP.On polling day millions of people who have not voted for decades or who would not vote if it wasn’t for UKIP will increase the UKIP vote in hundreds of seats across the country.Only my opinion of course – but I find the polls published in the Westminster Newspapers very hard to believe.
They are already trying to spin a poll with Nigel Farage losing South Thanet. Rubbish. They know nothing.
Just put some of my bets on for the Election. Only got evens on Castle Point for UKIP. So much for the Tories streaking ahead there.
To my mind, any seat where UKIP came top in the Euros has enough potential voters who are open to voting UKIP, the key is to then mobilise that vote. Plenty of seats like that.
In the Euros, of 380 Council areas I have results for, UKIP came 1st in 171 of them, Labour in 100 and Tories in 89. This translates into around 250 UKIP seats. Notably, then, SNP only came first in 15 of the Scottish Councils from 31.
After allowing for some drift of our vote back to Tories & Labour in line with post-election polls claimed (average of three) we could still win in 24 Westminster seats and come 2nd in 320. How many of those 320 can fight to retain enough of that Euro vote, we will see.
Indeed. My only point is that in many areas there are clearly enough people who under the right circumstances would put a UKIP MP in Parliament, the difficulty is retaining that support. With Northampton South creeping into view, a seat not spoken about much before, it shows that potential is yet to be realised. I know they have been working that seat hard, perhaps it is paying off.
Cruddas is crapping himself in Dagenham and Rainham. Even trying to stop a housing development there out of fear of UKIP.