Yay! UCL v ICL in the war of the modellers
Well I never! The latest ‘covid news’ is that we have a ‘war of the modellers’, namely between those around Prof Ferguson’s Imperial College crew and those around University College London. Crikey! More on that below – first a couple of ‘news items’ demonstrating that covid has definitely led to a most unsettling softening of mental processes inside Whitehall and the metropolitan MSM. They are too hilarious not to spread around.
The first one is about a plaintive moan regarding our beaches. There’s a charity called ‘Surfers against Sewage’ and they’ve commissioned a poll, reported in The Times:
“Almost two thirds (59 per cent) of adults agree they have seen more plastic waste, such as bags, bottles and facemasks, in their local area in the past 12 months than ever before. Only 16 per cent disagree with that statement, according to the survey of 2,000 adults commissioned by the charity Surfers Against Sewage (SAS). Most people believe the pandemic has caused an increase in plastic pollution because more single-use items such as bags and facemasks are being discarded.” (link, paywalled)
Excuse me – but weren’t people told, by pain of horrendous fines, not to go out at all, locally or not? Furthermore – thanks to lockdown and prohibition to go anywhere, all those volunteers usually cleaning up beach litter must’ve been unable to do so since Lockdown 2020. One would therefore expect more detritus to be seen on our beaches, right? Moreover – where is this stuff coming from anyway? Weren’t “we” all obediently staying indoors, unable to throw around plastic bags? Above all – wasn’t it foreseeable that these one-way face muzzles would end up everywhere? But it’s good that a charity has a poll showing that “we” must do something to clean our beaches – that used to be an annual event, wasn’t it?
The other ‘covid news’ item is hilarious. This comes not just under ‘you couldn’t make it up’, it comes under a new category: “government guidelines demonstrate again that civil serpents have lost it” – common sense, for one, and respect for us as well. We’re not the stupid eejits they have come to believe we are – we can think for ourselves, and we do know when their precious ‘coivd guidelines’ are a concoction of ever more ridiculous attempt to prescribe what we can and cannot do.
This is about a ‘new’ guideline being issued. In the previous ‘guideline’, pubs had been prohibited to take payment indoors when permitted to open outdoor areas on Monday. After complaints by industry bosses, there will now be ‘new guidelines’! Pub goers – or ‘drinkers’, as the DT snidely writes – pub goers in rural areas will now be told to bring cash to pay for their drinks because a) they’re not allowed to go inside when pubs are permitted to open their outside areas starting on Monday, and b) broadband and mobile signals in rural areas are so weak that doing everything ‘by smartphone’ is impossible. Well, I had to snigger when I read that:
“[…] ministers will attempt to change the rules before Monday so customers can go inside as a “last resort”, but drinkers have been urged to bring cash so they can pay safely outdoors. Industry leaders met officials on Tuesday to push for a U-turn. An internal memo seen by The Telegraph shows that “indoor payment will be allowed, but only as a last resort, i.e. where portable card payment or cash payment isn’t an option”. (paywalled link)
‘Going inside as a last resort’ – oh my! Does this mean ‘drinkers’ can only relieve themselves outside in the bushes, or are they permitted to use the indoor facilities? If they can use those facilities, why can’t they also pay indoors? And do people in rural areas really need to be told to bring cash, as if they didn’t know already that rural broadband and wifi aren’t up to the scratch civil serpents inside the M25 expect? And this waste of time, this condescension by those issuing guidelines is what we pay our taxes for …!
And so to the absolutely delicious ‘war of the modellers’. This is an ‘exclusive’ in the DT, with the reporter, Ms Knapton, going right in:
“Britain will pass the threshold for herd immunity on Monday, according to dynamic modelling by University College London (UCL), placing more pressure on the Government to move faster in releasing restrictions. According to the UCL results, published this week, the number of people who have protection against the virus either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12 – enough to tip the country into herd immunity. The number is in stark contrast to the modelling released by Imperial College this week, which suggested there was just 34 per cent protection by the end of March.” (paywalled link)
Oh look: there’s that dirty word ‘herd immunity’! Is it now permitted to use it? Are we perhaps seeing a tiny shift in the mindset of the covid empire? Next, look at this:
“The Telegraph understands that the Government is unhappy with the pessimistic tone set by models produced by SPI-M, released earlier this week, and has asked other groups to critique the work. The SPI-M summary, presented to Sage, suggested the roadmap out of lockdown was “highly likely” to lead to increased hospital cases and deaths this summer. The models were criticised for using out of date and flawed assumptions about levels of population immunity and effectiveness of the vaccine as well as failing to factor in reductions in transmission due to vaccination and seasonality.” (paywalled link)
My oh my – ‘government’ was unhappy with the SAGEs? Is BJ now desperately casting about to get ‘data’ to support his roadmap, being afeared of the ongoing public displeasure amongst us plebs? After all, his MPs surely tell their whips about the emails they’ve received criticising BJ’s ‘guidelines’, especially in view of next month’s local elections! Back to this ‘war of the modellers’ – see how the SAGEs are getting it in the neck:
“The work by UCL differs from other models because it reacts quickly to real-time deaths, infections, vaccinations, vaccine effectiveness data, hospital admissions and Google mobility trends, which inform transmission trends and the ‘R’ rate, which it currently estimates to be 1.12. Despite the ‘R’ being above one, it predicts that deaths will continue to fall to low levels by May 24 and stay there, with no summer spike forecast. Modellers say their “most likely” scenarios contrast with the SPI-M projections of “reasonable worst-case scenarios” and are more optimistic about the pandemic.” (paywalled link)
What more evidence do we need that SAGE and their pet modellers use their worst-case scenarios to keep scaring the heck out of us peasants and indeed out of BJ and his covid politburo? There’s more:
“Generally, the most likely predictions of mitigated responses, i.e. what is likely to happen, are more optimistic than worst-case projections of unmitigated responses – i.e. what could happen,” the researchers said. The team also published the code of their model so that it can be checked.” (paywalled link)
To crown this, the DT has ‘resurrected’ Professor Carl Henegan! They actually quote his observations, but it’s an abbreviated quote from his interview with TalkRadio to which you can and really ought to listen here. Rounding this up, there’s also an essay by Lord Sumption who calls the SAGE modelling ‘garbage’ (paywalled link). This essay will receive our ‘From Behind the Paywall’ treatment later this morning.
I leave you with another tiny indication that the covid empire seems to back-pedal. It’s in regard to Gove’s ‘covid status check’, or covid passport. Apparently the covidians are so worried that they’re now ‘considering’ to insert a ‘sunset clause’, i.e. to make perfectly clear that this measure would be ‘temporary’, in order to pacify their MPs (paywalled link).
Given the way Gove and the rest have been weaselling around on this issue, I won’t hold my breath. After all, why would we trust that lot when they’ve shown us again and again that we cannot nor ought to. Why would we believe them now when they are apparently abandoning SAGE’s dire predictions because it doesn’t suit BJ’s political agenda! ‘Herd immunity’ against ‘we’re all gonna die without moar lockdowns’? Lay in the popcorn!
Above all – keep writing to your MPs! It’s clearly working – you have them on the run.
KBO!
BoJos excuse…he was only paraphrasing Churchill in order to educate some voters.
Can you dig out the wallowing in a culture of grief clip… same author and male lead.
Imp Coll not the only dumbass modellers.
Anyone notice the IMF economic recovery forecast..the day before EU went into lockdown (ok the only bits of EU with any money).
So why we pay for access to the EU plague pit ?
In 2004, writing as a Conservative MP, Johnson declared in the Daily Telegraph: “If I am ever asked, on the streets of London, or in any other venue, public or private, to produce my ID card as evidence that I am who I say I am, when I have done nothing wrong and when I am simply ambling along and breathing God’s fresh air like any other freeborn Englishman, then I will take that card out of my wallet and physically eat it in the presence of whatever emanation of the state has demanded that I produce it.”
I never took a blind bit of notice of anything these psychopathic liars ever said. and cant imagine why anyone else ever did either
Jake…….its words spoken of a true buffoon. And as we well all know, one cannot trust any word that comes out of a politician’s mouth. What comes out is only applicable to that moment in time, and within a few minutes they hold a totally different line to the one before. We need to be rid of this inept style of politics very soon.
Friday 9/4. Just done my bit! I’ve emailed the P.M. and copied to my M.P., reminding him of that declaration in the D.T. in 2004.
I suspect that my MP , D. Mundell has blocked my e mails as I am not even getting an auto acknowledgement, let alone a reply. I have not been abusive, other than informing him that I will never again vote Tory. Can I complain about his ignorance?
If you write to your MP via the on-line They Work For You and Write to Them these organisations follow up your letter by asking if the MP replied and if not they may either name and shame the guilty MPs or send them a prompt. My MP always replies to my letters.
Drop a line to the Con Association and complain to them about your MPs attitude. Or even write to your local newspaper if you have one. Nothing lost.
Derek……..its a sad state of affairs, but the situation with you MP not answering emails or letters is not an isolated case. Members of Parliament or Councilors who cant be bothered to answer letters, emails, or engage with their constituents/voters, are in the wrong occupation, and should stand down and have another election called, so that somebody who is interested can be elected in their place. There are far too many hangers on in politics who gladly take the salaries and allowances paid to them, but are not that interested in serving the people who put them there. Why don’t you make a complaint to Conservative Central Office about your MP.
Since Covid Deniers seem to be getting somewhere at last,
Isn’t it time to unite Like Minded Deniers under one banner, then they could be separate but run legitimately hand in glove with Like minded Independents,
Then that would gather much more interested parties GW,Brexit, politics, in fact every old thing
I think Colin, Mr Piper Frederica, Lisa, Pauline and co should grab it while it is still going
When it goes viral I don’t require publicity only acknowledgement of original idea by…..
Roger Turner…Thanks for that. Me and David Allen who wrote an article for this site a few days ago regarding Independent Parties, are already putting our theory into practice and have already started what hopefully will be an alliance of Independent parties. We are standing as candidates in the local elections in our part of Kent, and seem to be getting a good response from the electorate so far, but the proof will be in the pudding as to how many votes we will receive on the 6th May 2021. I am confident that we will achieve a lot more through this, than what we might have achieved if we had stuck it out as candidates with Reform UK.
Covid denier? Don’t you mean lockdown sceptic.
I bet the government won’t answer this question, certainly not honestly at least.
“Why is the mortality rate in Britain currently below average?”
https://youtu.be/Afh3_JXM0Gc
Use your common sense.
The lockdown prevents/mitigates ALL infectious diseases.
Harry Again. Garbage in, Garbage out.
Fully agree with Viv’s comment “Above all – keep writing to your MPs! It’s clearly working – you have them on the run”
I am writing a very short letter every week. Often with a short quote from an anti-covid certification Tory rebel. We must win this one!
There are more people speaking out now on this issue and a snatched view of Tuesday’s Letters in the Daily Telegraph suggests this
Lets all take the view of one Alexander Boris Pfeffel Johnson towards Blair’s ID initiative and do the same for Covid passports
Jake. You and Viv are right. We must keep contacting our MPs. I had a reply from mine yesterday confirming that he is one of the 40 Conservative MPs to have signed a letter against the covid status checks or passports. In the light of today’s update from Viv I have written to him again pointing out that Gove et al are considering a ‘sunset clause’ and pointing out that as we are now in week 54 of Billy Bunter’s 3 weeks to flatten the curve I trust that he will not change his resistance to it. Temporary becomes permanent does it not. In January 1799 William Pitt the Younger introduced income tax as a temporary measure to help cover the cost of wars with France.
How many U- turns has he accomplished and statements of principle has this man now contradicted? I am unfortunately coming to the conclusion he is an unprincipled, pathological liar who cannot be trusted to DO what he says from one day to the next.
Re pubs;
I thought they wanted to eliminate cash since it gets in the way of the great reset !
I’m beyond anger and beyond despair, nothing they do shocks or surprises me anymore
I’ve kept my spirits up since this started but the passports nightmare has made feel there is no point in this life any more. There is no end to imprisonment. I’ve only got a few years and one has been lived in hell already. I’m not the only one who will have been reduced to despair and the feeling that there is no hope any more. I see even Biden has rejected passports.
Mind you, the more of the likes of us who are around, just existing, still makes the world a better place !!!! Even if it seems we cant now achieve anything except keeping up the noise level with MPs and posting on here !.
“Google mobility trends” what is that?
In my case it equates to dumping Chrome and moving to DuckDuckGo and Brave but that cannot be what is meant in relation to supplying data to UCL for input to their modelling.
Are our movements being tracked?
Yes Jim, we are constantly being ‘tracked’. If you carry a mobile phone, it is noted by every ‘stage transmitter’ that your phone comes within range of. If you use a credit or debit card, there is a record of where and when you used it. If you use Google search, for anything including information of ANY kind, there is a record of it. Google records EVERY action that you do whilst online from any source.
There are also other ‘monitoring services’ which detail everything you do.
So then, a good first step is to abandon Google, as you have done and another step is to continue to pay cash for your transactions and another is to leave your mobile phone at home (where the spies think you are) !
Jim R and Bill W; Tracking by smartphone. You ain’t seen nothing yet : in China if you, for example, jaywalk or drop litter, , your smartphone will take note and will issue an on the spot fine; AND WILL TAKE THE MONEY OFF YOUR BANK ACCOUNT STRAIGHTAWAY. It will know all about you and have access to your bank account. This is where these vacpasses are leading : ALL your personal data in one place on your smartphone !!!!!!! I dont know if theyre forced to carry their smartphones all the time but they cant buy anything without them; they have to swipe them at the till in shops, to pay. And if they’ve displeased Big Brother they’ll find their attempt to purchase rejected !!!!!
mary,Jim R and Bill W. Here, ‘they’ are also now planning to curtail the movements of over 70’s drivers. Another tracking device, fitted into my car. I was thinking about how to circumvent that but realised D.V.L.A. already know all about me, and there are cameras tracking cars all over the place.