Brussels and Westminster are empty. The ‘main players’ have gone on their Easter Holidays. Not even the D-list Tory politicians have opened their mouths so far.
However, a Labour Lord (yes, there are such animals) and ‘staunch Corbyn supporter’ has opened his mouth. This is his take-home message:
“It’s really quite straight forward. To leave, when we voted to leave, we voted to leave the sovereignty of the European Court of Justice. So ultimately, in our politics, we can’t do anything because the European court says that we can’t. […] It’s effectively illegal to oppose capitalism. So I support leaving the EU sovereignty of the ECJ, leaving the customs union, and leaving the single market. I think that’s what Leave means, so that’s what I’m in favour of.” (link)
That begs the question: what is the actual game Corbyn and his strategists are really playing? Is their clamour to remain in the Single Market and Customs Union yet another trick to keep their Remain Labourites in line while their real aim is to get into 10 Downing Street first and then ‘crash out’ of the EU, so they can implement their socialist policies? I suggest we better not forget what Lord Glasman said …!
In a change of focus the MSM are now finally paying attention to the forthcoming local elections – they take place on the 2nd of May, in less than two weeks time. They have now taken notice of the strange animal that is ‘the voter’ – that is, us peasants who don’t need to be listened to unless one’s an ecoloon, taking part in that circus in London bringing ordinary workers who need to get from A to B to despair.
Generally, local elections don’t receive much attention, but this year they have turned into a vote on Brexit and on Ms May’s Brexit Betrayal. Petitions have been useless, rallies have been useless, so the only ‘weapon’ we voters have is the ballot box.
There have been low rumblings about the discontent and anger amongst Tory grassroots, documented on sites such as ConHome, but the spectacle of the Parliamentary debates, the various votes, the grovellign trips of Ms May, the diktats of Brussels were far more important, as far as the Remain MSM were concerned.
Now however, with MPs in their constituencies facing the grassroots, the MSM have rediscovered that old toy: opinion polls. We do remember though, don’t we, that such polls are nothing but another instrument of politicking: unreliable and only good as long as they say what vested interests wants to hear.
This weekend, everybody is staring at a ComRes poll (here, and paywalled here) which shows voter intentions in a possible GE. According to that poll, Corbyn would win and the Tories would face a major meltdown:
“New analysis from ComRes shows voters could shift their allegiances to Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP in the backlash. Tory MPs told the Telegraph the future of their party is “diabolical” and that voters had described the Westminster elite as “w*****s’. [Ed: oooh! Language !]. If a vote was held tomorrow, the poll suggests Labour would win 290 seats versus the Conservative’s 277. Jeremy Corbyn would have to reach out to the SNP to prop up a minority Government.” (link)
That, for those of us with long memories, was the precise scenario used by Cameron in the 2015 general elections. Then we were told, at the last minute, to vote Tory or the socialists (Labour and Sturgeon) would get in.
Only the names have changed … but this time, there’s a new kid on the block – and the issue, Brexit, has become vital. Matthew Goodwin, a political analyst, had this to say:
“The Conservatives are way down on 15 percent. We might actually see them tumble even lower. I think it tells us that Nigel Farage still has significant pulling power in British politics. This is a brand new party that even now is attracting more than one in four voters. I drilled down into the numbers yesterday and more than half of British leavers are now planning to vote for the Brexit Party. The Conservatives have completely lost the Leave electorate and that’s problematic for them given that the Conservatives now are very dependent on leave voters.” (link)
Keep in mind though that right now, the only game in town are the Local Elections, not a future GE. So this scare-mongering won’t work. However, Ms May’s obstinate obsession to force her WA through Parliament does indeed influence the local elections this time round:
“Tory peer Lord Hayward has warned that the local elections could hit the Tories with a ‘Brexit penalty’ over how the party has dealt with its departure from the EU. Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, said in The Telegraph: “Failing to deliver Brexit is now doing serious damage to the Conservatives’ electoral prospects.” (link)
Yes, well, what did May, what did the Tory grandees expect? Did she, did they think that Leave voters are only a better behaved crowd of protesters than those ecoloons who’ve brought London to a standstill and that we Leave voters would go home and vote for them, as always? After all, we did have some rallies, didn’t we, and now they, the ‘adults’, can pat our heads and go back to business as usual …
But the show must go on, and now truly desperate – desperate because the polls show that yes, they will lose – Tory MPs are working hard on another attempt at getting rid of May:
“Theresa May could face a new confidence vote in the wake of the European elections under plans that will be considered by senior Tory MPs this week, The Telegraph can disclose. On Tuesday the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs will meet to discuss whether the rules should be changed to allow a new bid to remove the Prime Minister.” (paywalled link)
They ‘will consider’? A bit late, that, one would have thought! And they’re missing the point that it’s not just about Ms May but her Remain cabinet and the Remain Tory MPs who let things slide. More:
“Under one plan being considered by MPs, a second confidence vote will be allowed to take place six months after the first. It means the vote could be held shortly after the European elections take place on May 23.” (paywalled link)
Stable door – horse – bolted is what comes to mind! Does this Tory lot really believe that the prospect of a possible change “after the event” will make us Leave voters forget and forgive, make us go back and vote for them now?
No. We know how this works. We see how it’s always about keeping their snouts in the trough of Parliament, never about issues, not even about issues that matter for the Nation. We have learned the bitter lesson that loyalty, for them, is always a one-way-street: we must be loyal to them – they don’t need to be loyal to us.
They better learn that our memories are long. They better realise that a week, nay even a day, is a very long time in politics. And they better realise that the political card game has now changed.