Christmas Eve Shopping …
It feels a bit like Christmas Eve: politicians and MSM rushing around, doing their ‘last minute shopping’ before the shop doors close. There’s panic buying, i.e. stunts, there are last-minute-appeals, and there are ‘predictions’ galore.
There was also ‘that’ final poll. Depending on which way your paper or their opinion writers lean, it’s either going to be a disaster – or it’s going to be a disaster. One is a Labour government, the other a hung Parliament:
“YouGov’s final MRP model predicts that the Conservatives will win 339 seats, with Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 231 and the Liberal Democrats on 15. The seat-by-seat model, which is based on thousands of interviews, puts the Tories on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 34 per cent. […] YouGov warned that the margin of error could put the Tory seat total as low as 311, which would mean another hung parliament.” (link)
Another, non-paywalled report is here, and The Times has this to say:
“The polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago suggests that the Conservatives are on course to win 339 seats, Labour 231, the Liberal Democrats 15 and the Scottish National Party 41. Although that would give Mr Johnson a majority of 28, the poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311. “Based on the model we cannot rule out a hung parliament,” Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said.” (link, paywalled)
That’s an amazingly precise ‘prediction’ – not! A bit like weather forecasts, or ‘Climate Crisis’ predictions … It’s astonishing though that one report at least mentions this strange beast called ‘margin of error’ – something never to be mentioned because it might confuse us plebs.
These poll reports illustrate clearly what we politics nerds have been saying for a long time: they are used by the MSM to nudge or scare voters into voting ‘the right way’. How good this prediction is (not!) is described by Sir John Curtice who goes on to talk about exit polls:
“Sir John, a professor of politics at the university of Strathclyde, said that the margin between a hung Parliament and a Boris Johnson victory is so small that even a “good” exit poll may not reveal the result. “Because this is so much of a knife-edge election – it’s not really about who wins, it’s whether Boris wins or not – we could give you quite a good exit poll but we still won’t know what the political implications are.” He added: “We think that maybe they’re going to get 322 seats. But if in the end they get 327 – perfectly good exit poll, but it’s Tory largest party and we’re out of the EU. Conversely 317 seats, a very good exit poll, it probably means hung parliament, Boris Johnson out and we’re going to apply for an extension or to hold a second EU referendum.” (link, paywalled)
Now remember – this is RemainCentral speaking to Sir John Curtice, so Brexit, or rather Remain, had to be smuggled in! That same RemainCentral, a.k.a. The Times, had commissioned an extra special poll just for themselves, where we read:
“Voters are tiring of Brexit as concern about the NHS grows, polling for The Times suggests […] Health is now level with leaving the EU as the main issue in the election, as voters reject the Tories’ attempt to put the focus on “getting Brexit done”. At the start of the campaign Brexit had a 28-point lead as the most important issue but it has faded in importance. Now 51 per cent of voters cite it as a key issue, down from 68 per cent at the beginning of November. Mr Corbyn’s attempt to turn attention to the NHS has resulted in a ten-point jump to 50 per cent of voters citing health as important in deciding their vote. Crime and the environment have also slipped in voters’ minds and the London Bridge terrorist attack has not led them to prioritise defence and security, mentioned by only 7 per cent.” (link, paywalled)
This result is actually quite interesting because there are still 51% of voters for whom Brexit is the key issue. However, that same paper reported another poll a few days ago according to which ‘people’ had paid more attention to that terrorist attack than to the GE, as we mentioned here. Again, the report quoted above shows that the modern-day equivalent of reading tea leaves is as valuable as it was in ye olden days: not very much.
Moreover, this finding raises the question if that image of the child lying on the floor in an NHS hospital has had anything to do with this swing in ‘concern’. Have Labour managed again to make ‘Our NHS’ the main election issue? Has this photo had the same effect on national politics as the one of that dead Turkish boy, a few years ago, which opened the floodgates to ‘refugees’ swarming into the EU? A photo which, after the effect, was found out to have been faked? Well, better not question this photo, in view of this report!
And so, like desperate husbands and boyfriends rushing to buy their presents on Christmas Eve (sorry, yes, this is sexist and only based on my personal, past experiences and thus statistically invalid!), there are last-minute rushes to influence us voters. It’s unprecedented though that former Labour MPs have written a Open Letter, published today across the Labour heartlands:
“Fifteen former Labour MPs have launched an unprecedented advertising campaign on the eve of the election urging voters not to back Jeremy Corbyn tomorrow. In a devastating open letter, they warn the Labour leader will deliver the opposite of a ‘safer, fairer society’, citing his record on anti-Semitism, extremism and national security. They declare the party is no longer the one they supported all their lives and warn the risk of Mr Corbyn getting into No 10 is ‘too great’.” (link)
Will this letter have a greater impact than the Tories’ ‘dead cat event’, of some Brexit Party MEPs leaving the Party and blaming Nigel Farage for wrecking Brexit by making possible a hung parliament? Or will it be too late? After all, postal votes have already been posted. And will there really be ‘Portillo Moments’ when the results come trundling in, with The Times predicting that:
“Dominic Raab is on the cusp of losing his seat to the Liberal Democrats while Theresa Villiers could be Labour’s biggest scalp, an analysis by YouGov indicates.” (link, paywalled)
Interestingly, RemainCentral coyly doesn’t mention the possible results for the arch remainers Grieve and Gauke who of course are not wrecking Remain by standing in their old constituencies.
For a bit of light relief, there’s a little sketch in the (paywalled) DT, on Johnson’s travels yesterday. Michael Deacon describes how ‘men dressed as bees’ attacked the Johnson campaign bus:
“The men were from Extinction Rebellion, the environmentalist protest group whose members have spent much of this year disrupting political events – typically via imaginative use of industrial-strength glue. On Tuesday evening, true to form, they glued the palms of their hands to the front of the Tory battle bus. Police were called, while the bees – still stuck fast to the front of the bus – granted interviews to the media. “I don’t want to be standing in the freezing cold and pouring rain, glued to a bus,” insisted one bee solemnly, twisting itself round to face the cameras. “But we have no other option.” (paywalled link)
Of course, when stunts are one’s only ‘argument’ there are no other options … though I hope these ‘bees’ had a thoroughly miserable time before the police were able to release them.
Their ‘attack’ however is symptomatic for this whole GE campaign: stunts and photo-ops by the contestants, pseudo-debates on telly used by the ‘comperes’ to embig themselves, polls used blatantly as campaign material, no debate about the main issue: Johnson’s ‘oven-ready deal’, with TBP party being painted as the real enemy of Johnson rather than Labour’s Remain proposals.
Both parties have kept their top names out of the limelight as much as possible – anyone remember Keith Starmer? Diane Abbot? Jacob Rees-Mogg? – thus fuelling the MSM’s intent of turning the GE into a US-style presidential election and curtailing proper debates.
Well, tomorrow it’s our turn – tomorrow we have our say in the only ‘opinion poll’ that matters. I hope the main combatants are going to chew their fingernails to the elbows, waiting for the results. For once, there’s nothing they can do. It’s up to us – so go to the polls tomorrow and
KBO!
Photo by Su–May
You’ve said what I was thinking Viv. The Media are determined to turn our elections into copies of US presidential elections. It is rather sad isn’t it as well as very very annoying.
So Paganmas is upon us again. Not a crib or a Christ in sight, tons of of Chinese crap in every shop (how long before we import mince pies from Beijing?) and two things are synonymous with lies – Brexit, which it isn’t – and CHRISTmas which it ain’t……… the downward spiral continues apace. Oh, and don’t offend Muslims – you may need the protection of a mosque in the very near future, crying Sanctuary!, sanctuary!
No, I am NOT a practising Christian – mainly because those who claim to are generally frauds. I am not!
Am I a cynic? Most CERTAINLY!
Hi – ya misterpaul. Depends what you mean by practising Christian really. Hmmm . . . well perhaps I’m not good at turning the other cheek ! I like your reference to PAGANMAS. It is a bit nowadays, isn’t it but not very environmentally friendly. Even the Xmas trees are plastic. Still never mind. After all Jesus was not ACTUALLY born 25/12. Not under anyones calendar. It was actually fiddled like that to compete with the pagans celebrating the Winter Solstice I believe. Personally I can’t wait for the days getting longer. Much more important than Christmas.
A few days ago I was lucky enough to have an article “Just Good Friends” printed on here, lightheartedly I hope detailing an on course discussion about Brexit and the Election with my partner. If anybody read it they will recall he was a “ditherer” and I had to remind him of the reasons he NEEDED to vote to LEAVE.
I have since played with him again and repeated my remarks.
Since then again I penned the following “comment in Tuesday`s Daily Betrayal which I feel is relevant to the type of conversation I have been having with my golfing friend .
.
The referendum was about the return of our COMPLETE Sovereignty, In a few words the Restoration of our NATIONHOOD which is the ability to control our nation`s and people`s destiny without reference to any outside and alien agency..
The whole chain of events over the last three and a bit years has been marshalled to reverse the positive vote to Leave of the referendum and engineer the EU`s preference (orders?) that we remain – remember while we remain a colonial entity under the complete control of our masters the EU, then each and every action which emanates from this country`s parliament is actually subject to EU rules including those of our negotiators.
I detest Corbyn, but I detest even more the puppeteer who pulls his strings The future Chief Secretary for CONFISCATION McDonnell – the complete Totalitarian/Communistic apparachik, as I`ve previously said, he scares the life out of me.(NB he confiscates without a smile on his face – he has a place allocated for those who can`t or won`t pay up)
Finally, did anybody hear faceache Sturgeon on Radio 4 this morning, to me, she gave a surprising reply to the questions she was being asked about the perilous state of the Scottish NHS.
She replied that “well we have been dealing with the cause of long term problems, it is that there are more and more people who are living longer and in fact relative to England under the Conservatives and Wales under Labour we are 10 points ahead in dealing with the problem”
Isn`t it strange she didn`t mention one word about the wicked Tory imposition of austerity, cuts and general war against the dispossessed ,the starving, the needy, the street sleepers and privatization present and future, of the NHS, such a mantra of the obsessed Corbyn.
It`s possible I do have the answer to my own question of why she didn`t mention it, it may be because Scotland doesn`t have the same immigrant problem that so paralyses much of the rest of the UK (see my recent comment on the affects on all services, but particularly on the NHS of the sheer affect of 2/300.000 additional bodies per annum , without the provision of sufficient additional funding or even, as important the recognition that an endless non-policy of “shuggle up” is for the birds)
Apart from Corbyn`s crocodile tears for the dispossessed and his failure to remember that the whole reason for Austerity was because the Labour previous government had bankrupt the country, I am happy that Sturgeon and Scotland has no immigration problem and that unconsciously perhaps, she has given the whole lie to Corbyn`s treacherous NHS Tory castigation policy. I am also happy that our wonderful (in parts) National Health service has enabled me and millions of others to hang around (contributing) beyond our original sell by dates.
The situation we find ourselves in got me to thinking about dates.
With the wisdom of hindsight, something so sorely lacking in foresight, it occurs to me that the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month could be argued to be the beginning of the end of the British Empire.
I aver not all will agree but if so, what future does tomorrow portend,
being the 12th day of the 12th month?
The end of Britain itself?
Or, as unlikely as it may now seem, will it see us fully leave the EU and become once more a proud, successful, free independent state?
And with or without a preceding war of independence?
I’m afraid I don’t know the origin of this as a friend sent it to me last night, you sing it to the melody of the 12 Days of Christmas,
‘On the 12 day of Christmas
Corbyn gave to me
3 million houses
one million trees
no student debt
More Coun-cil tax
Waspi money back
Free Rail fares
£15 pounds an hour
A four day working week
Free Broadband
Terrorists roaming free
More Income Tax
And Diane Abbot as Home Secretary!’
Of course lack of Brexit and the NHS problems have no connection whatsoever and those extra 3.5m EU incomers have had no impact on waiting times. 51% put the cause before the effect. So most voters are still able to join up dots.
The NHS is one of the largest employers in the world 150.000 employees, which cost £140 billion last year and the left still wan’t to throw more money at it, and if it’s so fantastic ( which parts of it are ) why has it not been copied anywhere else.
Because it was set to become financially unsustainable from day one without the mass influx of disease bearing third worlders. I suspect that much damage has also been by privatising certain functions to governments’ cronies and the bad attitude of too many staff.
There was good intent when the NHS was introduced. My father had to have his tonsils out on the kitchen table in the 1930s! But the NHS like welfare is now hugely politicised and no party dare challenge the issue.
Maybe if there were juicy sums of money thrown at pressure groups, economists and think tanks they could successfully produce convincing and compelling evidence for some braver MPs to get behind much needed reform of the NHS.
And yes aren’t most of those employees dependent on the public purse, along with all those in public employment, how sweet it must sound to hear their paymaster promising a four day week ( wouldn’t be surprised if it was also a four hour working day- 1hr for eleven she’s, 2 hrs lunch and 1 hr afternoon tea) £6,000 pounds odd extra in their pockets) etcetera and the rest of the goodies in your 12 days of Christmas Norman
How can they possibly vote any other way than for Uncle Jezza ( Oh ! why was Stalin called Uncle Joe – I don’t remember him as being very cuddly?)
Another exposé of Corbyn here:
https://action.reignite.org/dangerous-jeremy-corbyn/
A dangerous one indeed.