Continued from Part I, published here yesterday.
Going back to Stratford on Avon, the West Midlands Economic Development Institute states that the area is looking at a 46% reduction in its Gross Value Added. The area relies on tourism and leisure with many visitors from countries around the world including Japan, Korea and China. In fact, the Chinese city of Fuzhou, which is twinned with Stratford, last year presented a traditional Peony Pavilion to the town. The Leader of the Local Council said at the time:
“Although it is part of the cultural partnership we have established with Fuzhou, there is so much more that both parties wish to gain from the collaboration. We hope that we will see increased business and trade links with the region bringing in investment and boosting the economies of both regions.”
Something that some may wish to think about when calling for trade links to be curtailed or broken is that the automotive industry exports vehicles to China and British companies have also invested and are represented there.
Some police forces have reported ‘hate’ crimes against Chinese people in various places, not a good omen and reminiscent of crimes committed against innocent members of our communities with German sounding names during the First World War and against both Japanese and German people often naturalized and citizens for many years during the Second World War.
A recent BBC report suggested that 6 million people visit Stratford on Avon each year. That changed this March. Now almost two months later the town is ghost-like with many businesses closed and, as you would expect, virtually no people to be seen except those buying food and essentials from supermarkets and the occasional person jogging or walking the dog.
One national retailer has announced that its Stratford store will not now reopen, and it’s feared that many small businesses will follow suit. The local council, to its credit, seems to be doing everything it can to assist and many hoteliers are trying to stay optimistic and although obviously closed at the moment have said that people have deferred booking or said they would come to visit next year. But there are dozens of restaurants and coffee shops. It’s difficult to see how they could operate with proposed long-term social distancing measures in place, which could mean that numbers of customers would be as lowered by 20% to comply. How they can remain a viable business with severely reduced customers but the same overheads is anyone’s guess. The famous butterfly farm, which at this time of year would normally be taking £10,000 a week is closed but with overheads still running at £4000 a week. They, like everyone else, have no idea when, or how, the lock down will be lifted.
The effect on communities like this is devastating, with many people doubting the viability of reopening local businesses when the lockdown is eased. It’s true to say that most of the over-70s are not economically active in the workplace, but active they certainly are. Just look at what they visit and, just as importantly, what they spend – either as disposable income, investments in companies, buy to let, and so on. Visit any garden centre (still closed for some reason not yet clear) and look at the age of the customers; the leisure and travel industries rely on them, as do restaurants, coffee shops, theatres, retailers (not to mention vehicle and caravan retailers), the voluntary sector, English Heritage and National Trust, spending and helping local economies all over the U.K. as well as the thousands of volunteers that help run national and innumerable local charities. Any government that wants to discriminate, on what looks very much to me, the grounds of age and little else, either has lost touch with the public and economic reality or is following some of plan that has yet to emerge. Perhaps, as care for the elderly seems to be causing such faux consternation, a reduction in numbers of prospective patients makes economic sense. Either way, somebody in government needs to be aware of the gathering storm, as clouds are already appearing on the horizon. No wonder that one MP is calling for an early easing of lock down, the cure it seems is really going to be worse than illness.
Re Stratford
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Which serves as a Moat defensive against infection …”
unless you lock up the brits and let in all and sundry
And to think that if everyone was taking hydroxychloroquine and vitamin D3 so that most became effectively immune they could then put everything COMPLETELY back to normal quite quickly. (They could test-drive this for 2 weeks on the Isle of White).
THERE IS INDEED A GATHERING STORM. ….. Coronavirus has been expensive in lives, and the Lockdown continues to make inroads into our finances, and our mental wellbeing too, but I fear that the worst is to come, ( and I’m generally an optimist ) !
In my home town, I own a shop property. – My Tenant was building a good business as a Restaurant, which of course he had to close pending the end of this pandemic. – He has received a little money from the local tax office, but nothing like enough. – He asked for two months rent credit and by common sense I am in agreement to that, so now there are two households that are short of money !
For me as Landlord, this follows my previous Tenant who was a Chinese Grocer, again with a good business. – Our Home Office refused extension to his visa, with no reason given. – He had to close his business and make all corrections from China, which he did without any costs to me, but I am left without a high opinion of the Government’s actions then, and the now is pending !
National financial standing after this pandemic will be dire; it has to be as money can’t be literally spewed out by Government at the rate that it is, with nowt coming in. – I recon we will not be back to where we were for at least ten years, and maybe longer !
A good article Norman.
Let us look at a cafe. cost of coff/tea bag3p. Hot water 1p ,Milk 1p, sugar 1p, Wages say 25p + Total=31p if you are lucky . So where does the£1.69 balance (Overheads) go
Well one certainty, rent reductions will be fought bitterley. As will . rates, And bank borrowing always kept to suicide level. Insurance, floor polish, Energy bills. etc.
Boris has already eased the Rates part. Admittedly by putting it off with borrowing. But it’s a start. But Rent. The basis of the entire countrys wealth propped up by all administrations. They have nothing else… Energy ? that’s laughable. Insurance ? we have imported the American model.Just stop paying it You will lose it anyway.It is not quit yet Protection . Yet !
Boris is doing his best and it seems to me so far …..OK Not the best model but given his room for maneuvre and the calibre of the oposition ( I think Starmer may given time, eventually be understanding and helpful against the distructive element ).
Where the hell is UKIP ?.
Come on, where have you been for the past couple of years? UKIP is a spent force and was totally undone with its association with certain individuals. It was in the ‘last chance saloon’ when Henry Bolton was elected leader in Autumn 2017, and went rapidly down hill from that point onward when he was dismissed from the leadership. Surely everybody knows of the existence of The Brexit Party which effectively forced the Conservative Party to act insofar as the 2016 Referendum, instituting Article 50 and our eventual exit from the European Union. However whilst Nigel Farage is still active on the thousands of people entering the country on a daily basis without being tested for Covid 19 and the growing English Channel migrants crisis,The Brexit Party has gone into a self imposed hibernation and needs to be re-activated sooner rather than later. As I have already mentioned on this site before a new ‘conservative’ political party is in the midst of being formed to fill the political vacuum that exists.
The Government will have most of this month to see the impact of easing lockdowns in other countries let alone those that never had them such as Sweden, Belarus and several US states
Once it is clear that the second wave is not happening there is no need whatsoever to continue with this farce any longer.
So how exactly do you know it’s a farce?
Have you special knowledge or experience?
I see the same figures everyone else does. They don’t make me want to don masks and gloves, cross roads to avoid other people and generally cower in my basement whilst the economy collapses and people die of heart disease and untreated cancers etc. The median age all over Europe for Covid deaths is over 79 (eg 84 in Switzerland). And these victims nearly all have serious under lying health conditions, often several. A bad flu would normally take them. This year it’s a new coronavirus. C’est la Mort.
Not an expert but to my thinking it is a farce and an outrage implementing a national lockdown whilst allowing scores of flights into the country, often from highly infectious countries, without checks and quarantine.