When the nominations closed on Thursday 14th November, 3415 candidates had put nominations in (compared with 3,303 in 2017, and 3,971 in 2015).
The lead up to the commencement of this Election has been largely about the Brexit issue, the options offered by the political parties, and the electoral choices available to the voting public. Up until last Monday, the leave supporting electorate were going to be offered the choice to vote for 600 odd candidates of The Brexit Party (TBP).
On Armistice Day, Nigel Farage ironically and infamously surrendered 317 of his candidates from standing against Conservative held seats. This has meant that, taking other factors into account, TBP is fielding just 267 candidates in this Election. The result is that 383 seats will not have a candidate from TBP.
The Brexit Party can no longer offer to be a majority government
However, the consequence is that even if all of TBP candidates were elected, they could not now form a majority government. This is significant because the Libdems, who are fielding 631 candidates, can still claim to be aiming to form a government. So can the Conservatives and Labour (with 635 and 631 candidates respectively). Nigel Farage has given his reasons for pulling so many candidates, but has he made a tactical blunder?
The late notice of the withdrawal of TBP candidates made it very difficult for them to organise to stand as Independents on a pro-Brexit banner or to approach a clean break Brexit part such as UKIP. In fact there are only 206 Independents standing in this Election, as opposed to 187 in 2017, and not many are running on a clean break Brexit platform. So Nigel Farage’s decision did not just affect TBP candidates, it affected other potential candidates who would have stood if they had known there was going to be a vacancy for a clean break Brexit candidate. This decision did stir the ailing UKIP into action though, and through last minute actions they have fielded 44 candidates (compared with 378 in 2017).
How much damage the decision to stand down in favour of 317 Conservatives will cause TBP is an unknown factor.The teams of those TBP candidates originally standing will be highly irritated and some will decide not to help their colleagues in neighbouring areas. That is the nature of politics and personalities. Such a culling of Parliamentary candidates is certainly unprecedented in British electoral history.
TBP- from aspiration to less ambition?
Going back to when TBP were formed, they seemed to be on the crest of a wave. At that time, Theresa May was the Prime Minister and the Conservatives were way down in the polls. The Conservatives suffered in the local Council elections electorally, and in the EU elections they were trounced by TBP.
Since then Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and the Conservatives have achieved a remarkable comeback in the opinion polls. The only aspect of a Conservative Brexit policy which has changed has been a slight adjustment in what was Theresa May’s “deal,” which has become rehashed with a Boris stamp. There is little which is improved, but aspects which are worse, such as the division of the United Kingdom with the separate arrangements for Northern Ireland.
It appears that Nigel Farage made his own withdrawal agreement on pulling candidates on the basis of some vague promises Boris apparently committed to in respect of the future Brexit arrangements, asking to trust Boris and the Conservatives, after many months of saying they couldn’t be trusted.
The ironic aspect of Nigel Farage’s actions is that now many in TBP members do not trust him, with some quoted as saying his political career is dead. It is perplexing that he has put TBP in this position, one of maybe not being trusted, when one of their key planks has been to oppose the untrustworthy, dishonest and corrupt Westminster politicians.
Nigel Farage has shown he cannot make deals
There have been a number of electoral deals or pacts in this Election, throughout the UK, from Northern Ireland right through to the other Home countries. If these are studied they all make electoral sense for the political parties concerned and they all gain in one way or another, both for their parties and for their main causes.
In Nigel Farage’s case, he has done a blanket deal with absolutely nothing in return. He basically blinked first. He has risked his party being labelled as a support wing of one party, the Conservatives, totally unnecessarily. He could have achieved the same if he had at least done some targeting, and not stood down against the more blatant of the Conservative candidates.
At one time, the aspiration was so high in TBP that they were motivated to achieve major political change, and to become the major political force in the country. It was not impossible. However, with one swoop of the hand, Nigel Farage has dashed those hopes and dreams, and many people feel let down.
What is the best way forward for voters?
Get the traditional British grit and resolve to support all TBP candidates and indeed candidates such as Independents and UKIP who will support a clean break Brexit. If there are reliable Conservative candidates or indeed any Labour candidates, back them, but aim to have genuine Brexit supporting MP’s.
If TBP can manage to get a significant number of MP’s elected, it will make a significant difference, especially if there is a hung Parliament. There is no reason why TBP cannot aspire to be in a coalition government, and this time, set the terms and insist they are met. With Richard Tice as TBP Parliamentary leader this is possible.
Other election issues a factor
This election is highly unpredictable because a part of it will be fought on domestic and foreign policy issues.
At present, it seems that it is the Labour party which is coming across as the party of new ideas and popular policies. TBP and the Conservative party will have to sharpen up to win on these issues. TBP has a better understanding of issues such as immigration and foreign policy, but there is much work to be done.
It would be tactically sensible, bearing in mind that TBP are fighting mainly Labour held seats, to take on board the more popular Labour policies such as free prescription charges, something the rest of the UK already has anyway.
It may also help TBP that they are fighting a reduced number of seats, simply because they were stretched logistically and organisationally, and this will enable them to target resources.
I left UKIP because of their underhand nonsense with the leadership of the Party, and their total discount of the views of its members ! ….. I demand what I voted for in the 2016 Referendum, as my vote was part of the majority, – With a failed UKIP, I have the choice of Tory or TBP, but now we have TBP going back on its publicised cover, so what am I left with ? ….. Yep, you have it. – Conservatives ! ….. Locally this is not such a bad thing, as our Tory MP is the very best Representative for this Town, and this constituency. – Michael Ellis MP was personally a remain voter, but when the referendum result was known as 58% Brexit in this constituency, as our Representative he changed, and has stood by it, so that’s fare does for me ! ….. As I have already told Michael, I am not sure of PM Johnson’s take on real Brexit, but I will be supporting him, in ‘hope’, and Michael will support Boris !
The above were the only Parties, ostensibly wanting Brexit, so it has narrowed the field for me as a ‘Floating Voter’, with the demand for a National Party prepared for Government. ….. This is a very strange General Election, with Labour being led by a Terrorist lover and having a dim-wit take upon borrowing, as usual ! – Then we have an opportunist leading Lib/Dems, and their cabal of ‘friends’, that have taken the path of being anti-democratic ! ….. What a bloody mess this Nation is in !
Like my own Tory MP who is a good local representative too, Michael Ellis also voted for the May Vassalage Treaty all three times. I could not lend my vote to someone prepared to hand over this nation like a trussed chicken to a hostile foreign entity so will be spoiling my vote unfortunately as have no other leave options..
I heard Nigel speak in workington last week, before standing down the 317, and he was very clear then that the next PM will be Boris or Corblimey. He highlighted the role of the DUP holding the balance of power and is clearly seeking to achieve that through TBP.
I suggest it’s a masterstroke because hes given Boris no excuse for losing, exposed him as the sh1t he is by not reciprocating and left enough candidates in marginal seats who will take votes from both main parties.
And hes also given the PPCs something to fight with namely who in their right mind would trust the pro EU Tories with brexit now?
I live adjacent to two NW seats both very marginal and one very pro leave in 2016. If he lands one and repeats the trick further afield, I suggest that might actually make all the difference in being able to hold boris’s feet to the fire.
Frustrating for the 317 stood down, yes. But there are still lots of people out there who trust the Tories. He might have opened a lot of eyes.
A very sound analysis. It was more than a tactical blunder, it was a major, probably catastrophic, strategic mistake. By standing down, Nigel has neutralized the Brexit Party and diminished, if not finished, himself off as a political leader, quite possibly for good. He has demoralized his troops and supporters. He is not standing in Tory seats. But in the very Labour leave seats where BXP is standing, he has just sent a message to the pro-leave traditional Labour voters who would never in a million years vote Tory and were going to vote BXP, that he is a Tory puppet. I feel sorry for Nigel because I believe he was under tremendous pressure not just from his enemies (the Tories) but also from his internal allies who were deserting him in big numbers at the critical time. Instead of standing by his true allies, he blinked to chose to appease these treacherous but more vocal enemies. BXP is a one man band with a lot of followers, there is no NEC which could have stood against this decision, and offered support and put some backbone into the leader under immense pressure. It looks to me like Nigel simply caved under more pressure than he could stand. I cannot understand why Nigel would think the Tories are his allies in this election when in fact they are Brexit’s worst enemies. Labour and LibDems want to Revoke – after which the 17.4m (and growing) people would get ever more incensed and a re-invocation of Article 50 and a proper unilateral Brexit would still be possible. Only the Tories are offering proper vassalage to the EU with no means of escape. Also, Theresa Mk II (a.k.a. Boris) is selling himself as a “Brexiteer”, so he is the Remainer camp’s BXP’s main competitor, and enemy. Why would Nigel unilaterally do his main rival the biggest possible favour with nothing in return? His enemy has always acknowledged that they are enemies and confirmed this by not reciprocating. How much more evidence is needed? The worst thing about all this is that the geopolitical consequences of this go way beyond Nigel’s career, BXP’s future and Brexit. The EU requires British money to survive. Precisely one entity will survive: the police state, authoritarian, undemocratic EU, or, Britain as an independent sovereign state. The other entity will cease to exist. The implications on human liberty are global.
The Brexit Party is totally undemocratic in the way that it is administered. Essentially kit is a limited company with two shareholders who decide everything The ‘registered supporters’ have no say whatsoever, and no loyalty has been shown to them or indeed the hundreds of activists who put have in hundreds of hours at constituency level getting it shipshape to fight an election.
”It was more than a tactical blunder, it was a major, probably catastrophic, strategic mistake.“
A faultless analysis Tomas, TBP are now a busted flush in the eyes of the public. Promising change, then helping maintain the Tory Party status quo. 5% in the polls, where is UKIP when you need it? If they had avoided TR they would be making a major comeback, TBP will have ZERO MPs now.
I suspect TBP will dissolve after this, I’m very disappointed. I’d be even more disappointed if I had paid £25 to become a supporter for a party that won’t even stand…..I’d be pretty angry if I’d paid to become a ditched PPC.
I guess we are staying in the EU then….until it collapses of its own accord or a new leave party is created, one that will stand in all seats….
John Locke. “where is UKIP when you need it?” Some of us battled on earlier in the year leafleting and standing as UKIP local candidates, and in my area at least didn’t do badly. We just ignored the TR stuff and got on with it , Then our voters fell hook line and sinker for TBP snake- oil tactics and deserted us in droves in the euroelections. . It was very soul destroying. Its a bit much if they come back at this late stage asking where UKIP is. Pity they didn’t support us more before, instead of being happy to let us almost collapse. I did warn some of them that TBP was snake- oil but they wouldn’t listen.
I voted for Ukip in the Euro election but don’t have a candidate for the GE (again.) I’m pleased to see they look to be standing in 44 seats though which is a good approach. Start again small and get a genuine seat at last (instead of spreading far too thin and ending up with a single Tory retread.)
If some Brexit Party PPCs can’t see that Boris’s deal will lead inevitably to a free trade agreement that resembles our existing vassalage in most particulars but without the troughing opportunities for our politicians then how does Farage expect the C2DEs to understand that when by standing down in Tory seats, he’s not implicitly endorsing Tory BRINO as the true Brexit.
How many Tory MPs are actually believers in what the majority voted for in the Referendum? A handful at most. What do the Tories believe in? Feminism , AGW, Transgenderism lessons for tots, multiculturlsm, mass immigration (as long as they’re the skilled people we need.) Need? There is none.
You must remember the Tories were never going to do a deal with TBP. LibLabCon run a political cartel and don’t want any new incumbents to enter Parliament and upset their cosy apple cart. If the Tories genuinely wanted Brexit then they’d have done a deal, but they don’t, they intend to deliver BRINO.
Remember, the reason we’re in the mess we’re is mainly down to the Tories. They elected a Remainer PM after Cameron ran off, they voted for her in a vote of no confidence, then scuppered ‘no deal’, having told us ‘no deal’ was better than a bad deal & then failed to leave the EU in March & October. Don’t forget who took us into the EEC (without a mandate) and signed key treaties, locking us into the EU, the Tories.
Absolutely spot on, Mr. Bickley. If the public fall back into line with establishment, cartel politics, where only two parties are allowed to alternate bums on the government musical chair, nothing will ever change. No one is talking about political and democratic reform and renewal except TBP.
Couldn’t agree more .I’ve just had a leaflet from my smug odious b……..d of a Tory MP in Mole Valley saying it’s no longer a question of remain/leave (REALLY?), but of Democracy; his odious party have just removed democracy from those wanting to vote TBP; what hypocrisy. He supported Mays Surrender Treaty, lying that that it was brexit, that we will will regain our borders and be freed of the ECJ. He called me a racist for challenging him over EU Arrest Warrants issued by corrupt foreign governments, and foreign gendarmerie troops on our soil. And he’s going to work wonders for the NHS etc etc. The leaflet was delivered obviously by someone who was paid to do it as they cant get volunteers no doubt. so I was even denied the pleasure of giving him an earful. Grrrrrrrrrrr.
Absolutely right. There was no way in a month of Sundays that the Conservatives were ever to join an electoral pact with the Brexit Party, I mean why would they. The Conservatives had approaching 300 MP’s whilst the Bexit Party had none, and no leverage whatsoever. In my opinion Nigel Farage backed himself into a corner from which he could not extricate himself, by making ludicrous demands of Boris Johnson which were never going to be honoured. It was all talk and nothing else. I resigned from UKIP thinking I was joining a political party which was different from all the others. Well, they have certainly been different, I mean what serious party that was once talking of forming a government withdraws most of its candidates before a general election. I feel very let down as do many others I know, having wasted the last six months building up an activist base from scratch but with little or no cooperation from the party leadership itself. I will not allow myself to be conned again. I think a rejuvenated UKIP will rise from the ashes, or at least I hope it does.
Political parties exist to gain power not to openly help others into power. The Brexit Party appear to be apeing UKIP in 2017 who also fell for the clamour (within its ranks and external) to stand down canidates where a Brexiteer Tory may loose his seat and imperil Brexit. Like with TBP today, the Tories did not reciprocate and stand down any of its candidates where a UKIP candidate could do well. Marching your activists up a hill and then marching them back down again never ends well.
If UKIP can wrench itself out of its self inflicted stupor and knock the party back into shape there are going to be alot of disillusioned Brexit Party activists and supporters who are going to need a political home.
Nigel Farage urged those who voted UKIP in GE 2015 to ‘lend ‘ their vote to the Conservatives in GE 2017 to give May a strong hand. Wow, didn’t the media then relish pointing out that UKIP had collapsed. No it hadn’t. It still got more votes than the Green Party which stood more candidates. Millions across the country followed Nigel’s advice. Here in Totnes constituency which includes the iconic fishing town of Brixham even the fishermen voted Tory. They soon regretted voting for Sarah Wollaston.(UKIP vote 14% in 2015, 2% in 2017. Cheers Nigel.
For some reason Farage has a habit of getting ahead of the perfidious Tory games and then throwing it all away.
I understand that Anthony Webber is a political commentator, and that therefore much of his thinking is of course about the politics and hence, much of this makes no sense to me, and the idea of adopting friendly bribes must turn many stomaches. Or should.
Also the idea of the Brexit party nominees being MPs for years afterwards, together with hundreds of parachuted imposters from other parties, makes my blood run cold. But at least they have an excuse, and who knows.
The labour party ” The party of new ideas “. Wow. Has our population deteriorated to that extent. It must be “creative.”
It has seemed to me that Farage has merely put himself and Brexit top. And believed a few lies. It happens to all of us However well or poorly advised.
WE have an entire country trying to work out whether Boris actually intendsto go for this apalling and actually unbelievable deal or not and trying to second guess. He has basically kicked away all ladders, taken away the goal posts, and dared us to believe in his idiotic WA. Everybody else has just given up and fallen back on good old fashioned bribery. This should be seen as a cynical destabilisation ploy.
I’ll amazed if this gets thru moderation.
Although I agree with the main thrust of Mr Webber’s article, criticising Farage’s absolutely inane decision of withdrawing 317 candidates without anything in return from the Tories, I do not feel he is correct when he concludes by saying that it may help the Brexit Party that they are fighting a reduced number of seats because their resources were stretched.
In my view, the Brexit Party did not need any more resources than they already have. Their packed rallies all over the country and their resounding trouncing of the Tories in the Euro election would surely have been enough to win them a considerable number of seats merely by having their name on the ballot paper?
However, that has all changed since Farage decided to so firmly link the name of the Brexit Party with the Tories and any hopes of gaining seats in Labour constituencies have now almost certainly disappeared.
Regrettably, we now know that the 23rd June 2016 was probably as good as it will get for any hopes of extracting ourselves from the grip of the European Union and who could have imagined that it would be a party calling itself the Brexit Party that would dash our final hopes. Thank you, Mr Farage.
People are tending to lose sight of what we are all about. The most important thing by far for this country is getting out of the EU, and Brexit party candidates standing down is a matter of judgment to enable the ‘least worst option’ party to win the election. The Brexit party on its own hasn’t a prayer of getting hundreds of seats, but standing in them may allow remainers to win those seats and frustrate what we have been working for for decades. I’m just glad that I didn’t have to make that decision and I sympathise with Nigel for finding himself in the position he is in now.
1) you don’t need hundreds of seats (see DUP for further info)
2) Least worst option? Then why ‘no contest’ with remainer conservatives? Well why – compare and contrast?
Sympathy for ‘sell out’ Nige. No.
I’m sure there are many of us who feel let down once again by Farage, the first time being when he walked away after the referendum saying “job done” when plainly it wasn’t.
To be fair, though, Mr Thomas – in 2016 we ALL believed in the democratic system and in the intrinsic honour of our Parliament. Sadly, we were mistaken. As was Mr Farage. We had no reason to believe, in those days, that the referendum result wouldn’t be acted upon. We know differently now, and we shouldn’t have trusted our politicians – but that’s the wisdom of hindsight.
” in 2016 we ALL believed in the democratic system and in the intrinsic honour of our Parliament”. Speak for yourself ! I didn’t . Nor did the respected journalist Peter Hitchens who did warn us many times, but nobody took a blind bit of notice. (I haven’t agreed always with everything he’s said but he was dead right about that).