Ed – The author of this article is our correspondent Septimus Octavius.
Politics has rarely been more interesting in the UK than it is now. A curious situation has now arisen in the House of Commons where there are currently almost as many opinions about Brexit as there are Members of it. Some want a referendum, but amongst these, there are almost infinite complex and deep divisions as to exactly what questions would be asked and what rules would be applied as to required majorities. Some people want a Norway style surrender, but it is difficult to see how such a thing could be negotiated with the EU in place of the provisionally agreed document, and there are comparatively few of these, and even they cannot agree on the extent of any “plus” factor. One or two actually want to use the power given by the ECJ to revoke the Article 50 Notification, but most MPs want to keep their seats, and most do not want to go down in history as the ones who stamped so nastily on democracy.
Some want to seek an extension of the Article 50 period, but that would have to be agreed by all 28 members of the EU, and most MPs are actually bright enough to understand that more time would not add anything.
Quite a few MPs on the “Leave” side are now openly proclaiming the benefits of leaving without a deal. One MP alone really wants the provisionally agreed document to be approved, but a few others pay lip service to it with a view to keeping in her good books.
Notably, the tiny number of MPs who choose to comment on the legal position grudgingly concede that the UK is on tramlines to a no deal exit on 29 March 2019; even these, however, usually qualify this by saying this is “just” the legal position, as if the law did not matter.
The crucial point, of course, is that the law DOES matter, because it dictates what MUST happen. In 2017, by Act of Parliament, the UK Government was statutorily mandated to give the Article 50 Notification. The effect of Article 50, which is a rule of EU law, is that in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement coming into force before that moment, the UK is Released from the Treaties of the EU at 11.00 p.m. UK time on 29 March 2019. As I have sought to emphasise on numerous previous occasions, there is, as a matter of historical statutory record, a clear Parliamentary majority for no deal!
What is, or was until very recently, so amusing about the Westminster frolics is the assumption by all concerned that the UK Parliament was sovereign; of course, it is NOT! The UK is subjugated to the EU, and EU law trumps UK law every time until we escape. One of the main reasons people voted to leave was to RESTORE sovereignty to the UK Parliament.
This is the significance of Article 50 being a rule of EU law; as such, it COMPLETELY OVERRULES anything the UK Parliament can do; and Article 50 makes NO provision for the revocation of a Notification.
Unfortunately, as a result of a dedicated conspiracy between arch Remoaners and EU institutions, the ECJ has recently ruled (surprise surprise) that the UK can unilaterally revoke the Article 50 Notification. It is well worth savouring the delicious corruption this ruling so magnificently displays. The ECJ has NEVER previously authorised a nation state in the EU to do something of significance in EU law regardless of all the other member nations, because so to do is entirely contrary to everything the Treaties of the EU dictate; but there is NO APPEAL from decisions of the ECJ, so it is entirely free to act as unlawfully as it likes. OF COURSE, the EU would LOVE the UK to revoke the Notification! Hence this odd judgement.
Both Labour and the Conservatives fought the 2017 Election on Manifesto pledges to uphold and act upon the 2016 Referendum result. So what? Millennia have shown that you cannot trust politicians!
Fortunately, I come back to my starting point. Although there are many hazy and shifting Venn diagrams in the equation, there is no clear majority for anything; so thank the Lord! Let us pray that Article 50 will indeed run its course and the UK shall make good its escape at “exit day”!
However, is there not another twist to all this hanky pank? Parliament has already passed the Withdrawal Bill 2018, which revokes ECA72 and sets the date for leaving as 11pm on 29 March. So a new act would have to be rushed through Parliament to revoke WB 2018 in Feb or March. I would not think this would be very acceptable either. It might pass in Parliament just about, but the populace would erupt. As Septimus opines, MPs will still hope to regain election since hope springs eternal. But apart from a handful of Moggsters, none deserves re-election.
On the one hand the ECJ has said the Article 50 notification is revocable in EU Law.
As I understand it, if revoked the UK position within the EU would be the status quo anti. Not good, but better than the PM’s deal as it would enable the UK to notify Article 50 a second time and we could go again, this time far better prepared and knowing what to expect.
On the other hand, given that the notification had to have the assent of Parliament, I would have thought that to revoke would also need the assent of Parliament. I have read what seemed to be a knowledgeable opinion confirming this would be the case. There may be a majority in Parliament for revoking, but if they leave it too late this course of action may run out of time. Hopefully someone well versed in the law and with the money to hand is standing by to act as needs be.
Wise comments, please.
I agree with your comment, and I will add that this will be something we can actually thank Ms Gina Miller for.
Her legal action in the Supreme Court that forced Parliament to vote on enacting Article 50, has set a precedent, as one can assume then that Parliament will have to have a vote on revoking it.
One can also assume that Parliament would need a mandate from the people in order to revoke Article 50, in the same way it received a mandate from the people to invoke it, in the form of the result of the 2016 referendum. Hence the numerous calls for a second referendum or ‘peoples’ vote’.
As much as they would love to overturn the referendum result and cancel Brexit, the Establishment also knows it is treading on very thin ice when it comes to pretending that the UK is a democratic country; any decision to cancel Brexit or overturn the result must be ‘seen’ to be the ‘will of the people’. Otherwise all hell will break loose.
The only way for them to stop this ‘democratically’ will be through a second referendum or general election where a party lists it as a manifesto pledge.
The problem is that come the day of the vote, Treason Chamberlain May is going to tell the Commons, this is a clear choice, you either back my remain indefinitely deal or you reject it and we leave with no deal.
So 66% of MPs don’t want her deal and 80% don’t want a no deal. This is what all the planning for a no deal is all about, to make the no deal the worst of the two choices. Her rotten deal then become the lesser of the two evils. So reluctantly they will back her deal.
Then Democracy is dead, the country is at the will of the EU and they might as well switch off the lights and close the doors of the Palace of Westminster.
Then in a few years after the bloodiest war between the peoples of Europe and the rulers in Brussels as well as every government building in 28 countries the individual nations will start to rise again from the devastation and ashes of European civilization.
What is clearly seen, is that our Parliament has become utterly useless, with most of its constituent Parties unable to make a stand with the people in mind. All that matters is Party politics, and individual seats. Let UKIP get rid of them !
So is doing nothing the best option for UKIPPers.? Is that the reason for GB’s silence ? The status quo never holds.
The sad reality is that with no representation in the House of Commons there is very little that Gerard Batten or UKIP can actually do to influence matters directly. Apart from making noises and turning the people against the Establishment. But it is Christmas time, so perhaps we could just take a break for a couple of weeks and enjoy the occasion.