Written by Geoffrey Bastin
Perspectives are just that. As Ken Dodd used to say, you can look at it two ways: either like this or like that.
Now this AUKUS arrangement has produced many column inches but from only one perspective. If for example we lived in the Far East as neighbours of China we might well take a different view, and it seems that is now the case.
Perhaps it’s out of fear, or simply because China in its insatiable desire for raw materials has become dominant in the region and beyond.
By contrast with the West, China appears to have had a long term plan for the last twenty-five years and in that time has never resorted to external military power. Of course, the threat may be there but unlike the US it doesn’t keep a carrier fleet in a position to strike at a moment’s notice.
By comparison, the US and its long term foreign policy has been determined to keep countries under its influence with its far-reaching military muscle. Tens of thousands of GIs are stationed around Asia and by so doing it keeps the Koreans, the Japanese and now the Australians as poodles and agencies of American foreign policy.
For some time we have known that the Chinese economy and hence its military are expanding exponentially. By 2025 if nothing is done China could overtake the US. It’s the job of the military planners to work out when is a good time to start a war – if only a small conventional and cyber one – where, with some help from neighbouring countries such as India, Japan and South Korea, the Chinese state and economy could be damaged or at least knocked back by a decade or two.
Neighbouring countries such as The Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia are very concerned about the Chinese claims to the South China Sea where even Taiwan is laying equal claim. The area is a hotbed of potential trouble and the AUKUS deal is now seen by some countries as unnecessary and even provocative.
Just as we are made to believe that Russia and China are to be feared, perhaps it’s our perception and belligerence towards what could be our essential trading partners that muddies the waters.
If the US date for China to usurp them is around 2025 then these US-designed British-maintained Australian subs will be arriving rather late in the day in 2040. All the fun in the Far East could be over by then without an Aussi sub being used in anger.
The Australian dependence on trade with China that accounted for nearly eighty per cent of their total has now fallen to around fifty per cent and could go further still as the Chinese apply the use of sanctions so much beloved of the West. Whether we like it or not the world is heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing and apart from the Chinese Communist Party, we seem to have little to object to from the Chinese people that have made their homes in the West and provide us with all those takeaways, not to mention car parts. They may be badged Mercedes or BMW but believe me they originate in China.
Our impression that the Chinese economy is always booming could well be misinformed because as we have seen very recently the Chinese Evergrande property company is about to default on its massive debt of some £15 billion. This could trigger another credit crisis similar to or worse than 2008 with unlimited contagion across many fronts.
The world’s economy is so intertwined and interdependent that sometimes foreign policy decisions show once again the folly and ignorance of our political leaders.
Perhaps as we look in greater detail at what Biden, Johnson and “that man down under” have devised we should be under no illusion that these three men of the moment are perhaps the worst leaders we probably never deserved.
With Napoleon Macron being ignored it has provided some much-welcomed entertainment, but in the larger picture of events his discomfort maybe but a sideshow.
Before every confrontation we have an arms race as all the principal parties gear up to defend their interests. It was as ever thus, and as human nature never changes and is reluctant to be modified the struggles of the world persist, and we as humble onlookers find ourselves once again powerless to influence events.
Looking at it from the chinese perspective. Facing them across the Pacific are the States and facing them south across the pacific is Australia.and Japan. , North facing them across the Straights is Canada and Alaska, with a west leaning Russia And across theArcticagain they face Northern Europe and Canada.. And across the mountainsthey have Russia and an anglicised India. The only way to go is the China Sea
They , China, , have to get really strong if they are not, as history teaches us all, to be bullied, broken up and go the way of the Red Indian.
I sympathise for their dilemna. While feeling fury towards to our establishment. ( Religious ignorants with the all powerful Navy)
My Grandfather a nd my German grandmother travelled and traded from China to India to Bristol and Largs . They could see the WW2 coming, and looked to China; and looked to China ( Essentially in those days pacifist, trading traders. ) to fight the Japanese, their hereditry enemies. Add to that and19 th and 20th century American aggression and ‘ just take it’ trading
It is always the powerful, greedy and ruthless establishment that causes the trouble…. No change there then
Western governments are usually dangerous kept in check by powerful civil service. Unfortunately.
Britain with a minimun of forethought could be the ally across the North Pole.
(South) Koreans are not poodles. Without the American presence that free-trading democracy would not continue to exist.
OMG we’re back to the inter war years – remember how that disgusting war monger Churchill was intent on getting us into a war.
And the reactions of the jelly-kneed pacifistic enemy within (the usual suspects Parliament,,most of the establishment -national and international and probably the MSM of the day) as usual not attending to the rightful interests of their country and in those days the rightful interests of the Empire for which they were RESPONSIBLE
They let us drift/GALLOP to WW2
Surely Mr.Bastin must be acting “the Devil’s Advocate” if he can see China’s concerted policy for the last 25 years of global hegemony through industrialisation, building up monstrous forces and advanced equipment both in quantity and effectiveness, sufficient to guarantee the silence or worse, the co-operation of the colonial type empire they are building in many countries they have subverted or even in which they have occupied by trickery.
If he can see this as a normal and peaceful,natural humanic advancement of retarded Chinese civilisation and the emergence of a blossoming , flower, without any thought of guile.or intention of stepping on any other nation’s toes,
So plucky little Australia (population zilch millions – China population squillions ) is feeling a little bit of a draught, but determined to stand up for itself lays alongside its old partner and the only other provider on the globe who can guarantee instant powerful assistance..But an even greater hope for Australia, you say their trade with China was 80% of their TOTAL overseas trade, which has now fallen to 50% must be one big black hole that Aistralia’s economy cannot sustain for long and which they must seek to redress from friendly countries URGENTLY
NO Mr BASTIN, under no circumstances should we adopt a pacification and surrender policy towards China, they must be CALLED OUT.and the Tiger poked as often as possible
There might be something in what you say however that the three worst politicians are in charge of anti-Chinese policy, but at least it is a start.
Roger, as I wrote right at the start it depends on which way you choose to look at it. To date the US is still the foremost military power in the far east but for how much longer. With all material wealth goes military clout just as the British used during its heydays. This Biden administration is proving to be a disaster for the US as well as the rest of the free world.
Who can tell where we will be in the next five years if the US dollar no longer is the world’s reserve currency and the US military is allowed to be superseded by China.
As I tried to point out what we see as our best interests in the west is not necessarily the way those much closer to China see it, after all we have our fair share of fifth columnists at home happy to wreck our economy with all this climate change nonsense whilst playing into Chinese hands.
Anyway, thanks for your comment.
Thanks for your reply Geoffrey.
There was a notable occasion in the past when one of our subcontractors. replied to me “if Mr. Turner would care to look in the other side of his one sided cupboard, he might find……………”
Yes! Perhaps that may be perceptible in my present attitude to your article, I do accept you are attempting to present alternative views which you enumerated at the commencement..I also agree that I have a very imperfect knowledge of world affairs and particularly those beyond Suez; and, perhaps I allow my heart to speak too soon.
But this examination of the views of others in the area, in my opinion is far too late and in this case far too cogent, they are the result of events that have occurred as you say in the last 25 and I would say, many plus that previous years..
Unfortunately we are here now, we MUST deal with events as we find them NOW and in the best way we can scramble together.
Yes, our actions might and probably will lead to further tricky moments, but our politicians have a primary duty to defend their own country’s national interests and to fulfil their international duties bidden on them by their permanent inclusion on the Security council which as I understand it is the prevention of WW3 or similar..
I know the idea of there being world policemen is not very popular, but I believe as a permanent member of that security council we have a responsibility alongside those other members to take positive steps, whatever the views of some, if not all adjacent subsidiary nations.
Of course, it is always better to proceed by agreement of all parties, but their views must never be allowed to negate purpose and action, which I felt was demonstrated by our history of fudge, ducking the issue and downright “nudging” (to put it politely)&
Roger Turner. I agree. More or less my reaction to the article.
Well done for seeing the analogy to Churchill and the inter war years.
Thanks Pauline, the more I think of it this article in the wrong hands is a ready made summary of arguments `from the other side`, i.e. the Remain orientated side.
Adherents to the principle of no independent nations have only to trot out all the guff printed here
you know :-
The overweaning States using their muscle to lean on their `agencies` to deny the poor Philipines, Vietnam and Indonesia their rights etc.
and all the rest of the usual claptrap that they come up with to fudge or mislead our nation in its primary purpose
i.e.Independent thought, purpose and action and formation of alliances.
If we want Australia and the US let not the dismal Jimmies deter us