It is always amazing to watch the combined forces of the establishment take to the airwaves, the printing presses and the internet to express themselves whenever a significant event takes place.
It was no surprise therefore to observe how the PM’s announcement yesterday evoked a flurry of opinion pieces from the A-List of our politicians and political commentators. Remember though, while she stepped out of 10 Downing Street yesterday, announcing that she would resign as leader of the Tory Party on June 7th, she’ll remain in office until her successor has been selected.
The most important question is how this will affect Brexit. Yesterday morning, well before that announcement, we’ve already pointed out the danger of Ms May’s continuing occupation on 10 Downing Street presents (here). So let’s peer into our non-existent crystal ball and try to predict what might happen …
You’ll agree that it would be wise to look at what our dear friends in Brussels in particular and in EU member states in general have to say. Surprise surprise, it’s nothing new:
“The European Union insisted it would not renegotiate the Brexit withdrawal agreement no matter who succeeds Theresa May after the prime minister announced she would resign this morning. Brussels said it was irrelevant whether the next prime minister was Boris Johnson, who called yesterday for a reopening of the Brexit deal, or his Tory leadership rivals.” (paywalled link)
More reactions came in overnight, and you’ll note that the EU leaders all assume that Boris Johnson will assume Ms May’s mantle. In a surprisingly quick reaction Ms Merkel has called for an immediate discussion:
“Responding to Mrs May’s announcement, EU leaders will discuss the next steps of Britain’s divorce as part of their Brussels summit on May 28. German Chancellor’s Angela Merkel’s deputy spokesman announced the bloc’s plans within an hour of Mrs May standing down. EU diplomats and officials in Brussels have pleaded with the next British prime minister to bring an end to the Brexit deadlock as soon as possible. Leaders were due to discuss the next European Commission, Council and Parliament presidents but Brexit has once again hijacked a Brussels summit.” (source)
Oh dear – how sad … cannot someone tell those EU Leaders that this would have been resolved already had it not been for their intransigence from the get-go? Here’s more from Brussels:
“A new prime minister faces implacable opposition from the European Union to reopening the draft withdrawal treaty and growing resistance to any further Brexit delay. Whoever wins the keys to No 10 will be told by European leaders that Britain needs to quickly make a choice between the present deal, including the Irish backstop, crashing out without a deal in November, cancelling Brexit or holding a second referendum.” (link, paywalled)
As new PM I’d tell them, in LibDem speak, ‘bollocks to that!’ as Brussels still believes it’s for them to dictate to us:
“Negotiations with Brussels will be made more difficult by Britain’s participation in EU elections, which are being seen as creating a polarised British political climate and “polluting” European politics.” (link, paywalled)
Let that sink in: our votes in the EP elections which we didn’t want in the first place are ‘polluting’ European politics. Of course, we know why those pure EUropeans haven’t kicked us polluters out: they want and need our money. Here are more statements showing that Brussels still won’t relinquish its role as our overlord:
“On the European side there is absolutely no intention to reopen the withdrawal agreement,” Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s lead Brexit negotiator, told The Times. “There is no appetite for another extension unless Britain decides what it wants. We will want to see a positive majority in the Commons for something.” (link, paywalled)
We don’t care what you ‘want to see’, Guy. The result of the EP elections to be announced on Sunday night will show you exactly that we don’t give a hoot. Meanwhile, other EU leaders have started their blame game already:
“Senior EU officials and diplomats categorically rule out reopening the draft withdrawal treaty deadlocked in the House of Commons, particularly any significant changes to the backstop to prevent a hard border in Ireland. A senior diplomat close to the talks said: “It is a fundamental question of our credibility at a time when the EU needs to hold the line — against populists, Donald Trump on trade and Russia. Will we throw it all away just to help a Brexiter like Boris Johnson?” (link, paywalled)
It’s endearing, isn’t it: ‘diplomats’ think that it’s about them making a stand against ‘populists’ – while those same ‘populists’ are probably going to take a large number of seats in the new EU Parliament. And it’s indicative of their attitude, that voters just don’t matter.
I’d interpret this combination of Brussels fear and intransigence as a typical case of ‘fear-aggression’, something well known to dog behaviourists. In their political obituaries about Ms May this fear aggression comes out nicely, especially as they know that we can leave on Halloween with No Deal:
“European leaders warned Tory leadership hopefuls to expect no more concessions from Brussels and be prepared to live up to their no-deal rhetoric. The Spanish government said that after Theresa May’s departure a cliff-edge exit appeared inevitable unless stopped by parliament. […] Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, said that the problem of Brexit was “not Theresa May” but Britain’s strict red lines for any deal. France said that a new prime minister would have to explain quickly what he or she wanted. Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, said that even if a hard core Brexiteer was elected the EU would not alter the present negotiating mandate.” (link, paywalled)
While Brussels and the EU leaders are indulging in presenting their ‘implacable’ position – even though we can sense their fear of what we Brits might get up to next – there’s one aspect which, as usual, has been overlooked not just by them but by our own lot here.It’s the role of Ms May’s Brexit “negotiators” who are of course still holed up with May in 10 Downing Street: Sir Mark Sedwill, Mr Olly Robbins (I wonder if she’ll give him a gong on her leaving …) and Mr Gavin Barwell. Mr Barwell may leave with May, the other two might remain.
Whitehall Mandarins have a proud tradition of domesticating their unruly Ministers – like William Hague as Minister at the FO, BoJo was no exception. Unlike those EU leaders who still have no understanding of our political culture and processes, we know what is going to be on the cards when we read, shuddering, of two Cabinet ministers now thinking out loud about supporting BoJo:
“Hours after a tearful Theresa May announced June 7 as the date she will step down as Tory leader, Mr Johnson insisted there would be no further extension of Article 50 if he wins the race to succeed her. His campaign received a major boost as both Philip Hammond and Amber Rudd indicated they could back him, suggesting he could receive top-level support from both Remain and Leave campaigners.” (paywalled link)
That pronouncement may come to haunt BoJo. Having those two May acolytes, Rudd and Hammond, utmost Remainers both, support him does not bode well, alas, especially as they are both not especially ‘fond’ of him.
The last word must go to the incomparable Sir John Redwood who writes in his Diary today:
“We are long past the position where we need a new leader to find a compromise between Leave and Remain, or who thinks that a few tweaks to the Withdrawal Agreement will enable it to pass. Only getting us out by October 31st at the latest is going to get the government and the party the right to a hearing again from voters, and the space and authority to press forward with all the many policies we can then offer based on the freedoms Brexit delivers.”
Do read the whole entry. Unlike EU Leaders and many in our MSM, he doesn’t overlook the seismic change brought about by TBP.
My non-existent crystal ball tells me that the outlook is therefore not as sunny as some would like to think. We need to be as vigilant as ever!
KBO!
from PMB Opinions divided then on what hope from a new P.M. It’s overwhelming how thoroughly NASTY the E.U. now shows itself. As a result I no longer blame Nigel for splitting the Brexit vote. He IS probably better fitted than Gerrard for destroying (the EU) from within. Sorry, though not very surprised, to hear that news from Wokingham. Steve Baker is in the race – good. Wish we could get Hammond stood crying outside number 11 as he resigns. Oh and many top Civil (so called) SERVANTS sacked.
I would say she has only resigned as leader of the party not pm, she can do unntold damage, when pms resign its normal for the deputy to take over , with no power, shes goint to murder the uk if she’s allowed to stay another day
I think we are now at a point of severe danger. May is on the way out, but is still in power for a couple of months. This gives her an opportunity to wreak even more damage than she has done to date as, for her, there will be no consequences. Top of the list of concerns is that she will follow the advice of Ed Davey and put forward a bill to prevent a ‘No Deal’ Brexit in order to tie the hands of her successor
Sir John Redwood’s diary does make for some interesting reading, he certainly knows what he is talking about.
However it is interesting that despite seeming to have all the answers, he has not put himself forward for the leadership challenge.
Why is this I wonder? Perhaps he knows that despite all the rhetoric, it is all utterly futile, and whoever takes over the current agenda will merely continue?
It is fairly common knowledge here in his constituency that he is planning to retire and likely will not stand at the next GE. He is unlikely to seek high office because of his plans.
“… EU leaders will discuss the next steps of Britain’s divorce …”
Divorce!!! Wrong analogy. Divorce is the last thing a rape victim needs! Revenge more like it.
1. One by stinking one, we prise loose and remove the fetid fingers of the EU which have clawed their way into the very heart of our body politic.
2. Then WE discuss what steps to take to see it never happens again.
If they’re unable to work with us, if it means destroying the EU completely (politically of course) then so be it.
3. We get back into the world! Back to, if not at first ruling the waves, then at the very least, making some!
It’s a very short list of Tory party leadership contenders if those who voted in support of any of May’s 3 attempts to bulldoze Merkel ‘s Agreement through the House of Commons are excluded. I hope that Steve Baker puts his name forward. He is razor sharp.
I too would prefer Steve Baker having liked what I have heard him say. The new PM needs to fire the devious remainer Hammond at the earliest opportunity. He will also need to have the guts to fight the manipulative mandarins like Sedwill and Robbins.
Steve Baker is by far the best man for the job and I hope he he does put himself forward!
‘Divorce is the last thing a rape victim wants’ I love it and the rest of your comment.
I believe it would be a mistake to put any trust or credibility in the Conservative Party. They have had their chance and know the consequences of further nonsense. The driving force now will be public opinion. Picture a tug of war. The Remainers feet are slipping what they haven’t got is the dead weight of time and Democracy on the end of their rope.
The WA is finished and the British public will not tolerate any more humiliation from self important idiots in Parliament. They want Brexit no ifs no buts.
The whistle was blown and our troops went over the top. After the carnage many lay dead in mud and blood. No ground was made, no advantage won. Tommy said to his mate “now its their turn”
If the EU make meaningful concessions we will escape and we will win. If the EU fail to make meaningful concessions the publics eyes will be fully open and we will escape and win.
In the end they will lose but we must get off the ship before it sinks. Thus ends the Fourth Reich.
Good to see all the ‘con’ artists rushing around the air waves and the print media, behaving as if nothing has happened , the eu vote, nothing really just a little blip to be ignored so now we can all go on as if nothing has happened and get on with signing up to full military union, getting a ‘deal’ and being good remainers.
The P.M has resigned but actually hasn’t, not that in the main the media noticed, the masses are well on the way to being conned again, just look at all the faux symphathy for May in the comments sections. Short memories for some it seems symphathy for this woman who has not only lied time and time again but also has robbed us of our democracy. You may feel able to work with a thief but a liar as well, is that not pushing common sense to far? All this happening and still no comment or even an indication of views from Brenda! Now it’s suggested that May may take a seat (when and if she goes ) in the Lords. There is something very smelly in the State and it’s getting worse by the day. Yesterday was seen as the end of the beginning by many, it’s nothing of the sort.
Absolutely agree that even (especially?) with BoJo as PM the Tories still cannot be trusted. The fact that Rudd and Hammond would back him says it all, even allowing for any skin-saving motives. I also felt a frisson of unease at BoJo being called a Brexiter by an EU insider – is it all staged pretence so as to wheel yet another Trojan (pantomime) Horse PM past our defences?
MWT – absolutely correct.