Over the last few days, Brexiteers across the country have been calling for voters in key Labour Marginals to think very carefully about where they place their X on Thursday – and rightly so.
As described in BREXITCENTRAL last Monday, Unite2Leave has launched a website which identifies very clearly, constituency by constituency, exactly how committed Brexiteers should vote to avoid splitting the Leave vote between the Brexit Party and the Conservatives and so allowing the Labour candidate to slip through the gap in the defence and retain that seat. And for those suspicious minds that suspect this is simply a ‘Vote Tory Everywhere’ gambit, having run every constituency in the UK through the tool, it is clear that this is not the case. Unite2Leave recommends voting Brexit Party in no less than 65 constituencies, as shown in the table below, as well as reflecting the Labour Speaker’s seat, traditionally left unopposed and also recommending that voters vote Labour’s Graham Stringer back in, in Blackley and Broughton. Graham Stringer has, in Unite2Leave’s own words, ‘consistently strong Brexit credentials.’
| Row Labels | Count of Constituency |
| VOTE BXP | 65 |
| VOTE CONSERVATIVE | 565 |
| VOTE DUP | 17 |
| VOTE INDEPENDENT | 1 |
| VOTE LABOUR | 2 |
| Grand Total | 650 |
And on Friday, the Daily Mail went a step further, highlighting the nineteen constituencies where the Brexit Party is most likely to let Labour keep the seat through vote-splitting and publishing the formal email addresses of the Brexit Party PPCs so that they could be contacted and gently urged to support the Conservative hopeful rather than risk jeopardising the Conservatives own chances and, by extension, Brexit itself.
For reference, those constituencies are:
This all paralleled a move that reflected the level of concern, even in the Brexit Party itself, when four former Brexit Party MEPs, Annunziata Rees-Mogg, Lance Forman, Lucy Harris and John Longworth held a press conference the previous day, urging people to vote Tory and warning that Nigel Farage’s party was splitting the Leave vote. Annunziata Rees-Mogg said the Brexit Party was ‘now the very party risking Brexit and taking Tory vote share in 274 seats, some of which the Tories must win in order to secure a majority’. John Longworth had been sacked the previous day for ‘undermining Nigel Farage’s election strategy’ whilst the other three resigned the whip.
On the Andrew Neil Interview, Nigel Farage stuck to his assertion that the Brexit Party ‘would only’ take votes from Labour and thus help the Conservatives in any case. But this is a lazy and simplistic view that takes no account of tribal loyalties, and there can be no doubt that the Brexit Party WILL split the Leave vote in those seats and may well let the Labour candidate through as a result. Farage likes to hark back to the General Election of 2015 as his reference and claim that the Conservatives did well because of UKIP’s influence on the Labour vote but a lot has changed in four years and the same easy assumptions cannot be drawn this time around.
I remember well the heady days of the 2015 General Election when UKIP won nearly four million votes (but only one seat – Clacton (Douglas Carswell)) and came second in many constituencies for the first time ever. My own one, Rutland & Melton, was one of those where we beat both Labour and the Lib-Dems to second place with nearly nine thousand votes. And, as UKIP’s Parliamentary Campaign Manager, I remember well the back-slapping and ‘didn’t we do well overall’ atmosphere that prevailed following the Election.
But, this time will be different, Brexiteers and Remainers who, unlike the Liberal Democrats, actually believe in democracy, will not be thanking the likes of Martin Daubney, BXP’s Ashfield Candidate if, thanks to his standing in that most marginal of seats, Labour’s Natalie Fleet retains it for her party instead of the Conservatives managing to add it to their majority. This is a seat, remember, where Gloria De Piero managed to hang on in 2017 with a margin of just 441 votes, Labour’s vote-share having dropped from over nine thousand in 2015…
The message is clear, and the prospect of a Labour Government propped up by Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP is one that should frighten us all. Let’s hope the voters have better sense than some of our political leaders on Thursday, so after three and a half years of, as Boris Johnson wrote today, ’dither and delay, prevarication and procrastination, obfuscation and obstruction’ this country can finally move on. Because if they don’t, we can say goodbye to Brexit for good as well as goodbye to our security, our financial stability and to Scotland.
This tactical voting scam been running for years. Vote for us and keep the other lot out. The best argument to vote tory is to keep out Corbyn. That doesn’t say much for the tory party does it? And anyway the Blairite Tory Party is the useless, incompetent and failing Party that couldn’t deliver a pizza. Not voting Tory. Not voting for fake brexit. Not voting for fake tories that will sell out to the EU the moment they get a majority and get five more years to insult their own voters, betray their country and deny democracy.
Unite2Leave
Maybe I’m misunderstanding its pie-chart, but it seems to assume that Leave voters only come from Cons, UKIP, and Brexit Party.
None of the Constituencies looked at seem to show any Labour Leavers – despite seeming pretty obvious it is Labour’s vote that is ripe for splitting.
Conclusion? A Conservative website.
Gerry Robinson – Excellent Article. Well done. I do not understand though why my Constituency, Derbyshire High Peak is not included as one where the Brexit Party might split the LEAVE vote. Ruth George LAB got in 2017, where previously it was Andrew Bingham CONS. It was a LEAVE constituency in the Referendum – not large but reasonable majority.
I did not know much about Bingham and of course at that time LAB also ‘supported the referendum result’ in their manifesto. But I have been very worried about the Brexit Party standing this time.
However, while every other Party has deluged us with literature through the door and canvassing in person Brexit Party put one leaflet through the door today. May be while I have considered it a ‘marginal’ where splitting our vote could let Corbyn’s lot through, it is historically a Tory seat and it was a protest against Bingham – now retired or otherwise ‘gone’.
I was a devoted Conservative but the lies and bile coming from them and Labour (hell would freeze over). NOTA it is.
I agree Brexiteers should vote tactically. Vote TBP if you are privileged to have one standing in your constituency. If not vote NONE as all of the other main contenders are REMAIN. Voting Tory is REMAIN spelt LINO ( or BRINO). see https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-boris-johnson-theresa-may-european-commission-general-election-a9187691.html for an expose of the lying Toad. Voting NONE is a marker for CHANGE. If NONE polls the highest, what then?
It’s not TBP that is splitting the Leave vote. The Cons are doing so with eyes open as a deliberate policy.
Vote TBP, Ruat coalem.
Puram et superiora loca! Let’s hope.
Fingers and everything else crossed. I only wish we had a BP candidate instead of the decidedly iffy person we have as our Con candidate. Holding my nose, though – little else to do now.
We may have been out of the EU years ago if UKIP and the TBP had stopped trying to achieve that goal through the Tory Party. Farage keeps saying he wants to change the face of politics but always baulks at inflicting serious collateral damage on the Tories leaving great swathes of the Leave vote feeling confused and that are just being marched up a hill and down again for nothing. Fool me once……..
”… feeling confused…” No, I personally don’t ”feel confused”. I can see what is being attempted. Sadly though, there are too many who think it’s confusing. Perhaps, therefore, they would rather do as they’re told. That’s where Farage comes in.
Sounds a lot like another ‘project fear’.
I want out of the common market and I don’t care who gets hurt in the process.
Hung parliament – so be it. Next time maybe we can vote for TBP.
Choice of Labour or Cons – leave or surrender treaty?
In the words of Corbyne – out brothers out!
Well said Biscotte. My vote (by proxy)has already gone to TBP who fortunately fielded a candidate.Whatever the arguments I cannot bring myself to support Traitor Boris. As a long term Conservative supporter I am disgusted with them and will not give them my vote whatever the tactical arguments.
Biscotte Where have you been since 1973? It WAS sold to us as a Common Market when Heath signed us in. Even then it was actually the EEC. The European ECONOMIC Community. A Bit More Than a ‘common market’ – note. An Economic Community.
The rest of your comment shows a lack of depth and understanding too. But, hey ho at least you want OUT.
Thanks for the compliments.
I seem to remember it was 1975 and was sold as the ‘common market’. And allegedly agreed to by Great Britain, but not in my name. Nobody has voted for any change of name from CM since. Nor the change from GB to United Kingdom.
Lack of depth – how deep does one have to be? I, along with the majority ‘want out’.
Understanding? A surrender document is about to be foisted on us. What am I missing.
And what have you done today to further the (leaver) cause?
(for me it was a phone call broadside at the Lib-undems and another swipe at the arch remainer mp in my constituency).
But, hey ho back to your knitting.
1975 was the referendum AFTER THE EVENT.
You clearly have not been reading this site every day. I have stood on my doorstep facing down 8 people canvassing for a remain party. I have sent countless e-mails rubbishing arguments put forward by ‘remainers’.
Don’t you understand that by calling it a common market you are making the European Union sound like something innocent and not a threat to our sovereignty, security and our whole way of life – including free speech.