Written by Classical Liberal
~~oOo~~
[Please read Part 1 here]
Distortions in geographical representation provide incentives for parties to ignore the interests of areas in which they are too weak to stand much chance of gaining representation, leading to governments that do not govern in the national interest. Further, during election campaigns, the campaigning activity of parties tends to focus on marginal seats where there is a prospect of a change in representation, leaving safer areas excluded from participation in an active campaign. Political parties operate by targeting districts, directing their activists and policy proposals toward those areas considered marginal, where each additional vote has more value.
Wasted votes are those cast for losing candidates and winning candidates above the number required for victory. For example, in the UK general election of 2005, 52% of votes were cast for losing candidates, and 18% were excess votes—a total of 70% ‘wasted’ votes. On this basis, a large majority of votes may play no part in determining the outcome. This winner-takes-all system may be one reason why ‘voter participation tends to be lower in countries with FPTP than elsewhere’.
Gerrymandering is more likely in an election under FPTP because FPTP permits many wasted votes. Gerrymandering occurs when electoral areas are designed deliberately to increase the number of seats won by one party. Maps are redrawn so that one party has a small number of districts in which it has an overwhelming majority of votes (whether due to policy, demographics which tend to favour one party or other reasons), and many districts where it is at a smaller disadvantage.
The presence of spoiler candidates often gives rise to suspicions that manipulation of the slate has taken place. A spoiler may have received incentives to run. A spoiler may also drop out at the last moment, inducing charges that dropping out had been intended from the beginning.
Under FPTP, a small party may draw votes and seats away from a larger party that it is more similar to and give an advantage to one it is less similar to.
FPTP within geographical areas tends to deliver a significant number of safe seats. Safe seats shelter a representative from any but the most dramatic change in voting behaviour; this applies, particularly to larger parties. The ERS estimates that more than half the seats can be considered safe. MPs involved in the 2009 expenses scandal were significantly more likely to hold a safe seat.
The Constitution Society published a report in April 2019 stating that, ‘[in certain circumstances] FPTP can . . . abet extreme politics, since should a radical faction gain control of one of the major political parties, FPTP works to preserve that party’s position . . . This is because the psychological effect of the plurality system disincentivises a major party’s supporters from voting for a minor party in protest at its policies, since to do so would likely only help the major party’s main rival. Rather than curtailing extreme voices, FPTP today empowers the (relatively) extreme voices of the Labour and Conservative party memberships’.
According to the political pressure group Make Votes Matter, FPTP creates a powerful electoral incentive for large parties to target similar segments of voters with similar policies. Political diversity in a country reduces because FPTP incentivises the larger parties to coalesce around similar policies.
Many countries which use FPTP have active campaigns to switch to proportional representation. Most modern democracies use forms of PR. In the UK case, the movement to scrap FPTP has been ongoing since at least the 1970s. Changes to the UK system have been proposed. The Jenkins Commission examined alternatives in the late 1990s. After forming a new coalition government in 2010, it was announced that a referendum would be held on switching to the Alternative Vote (AV) system. However, the AV system was rejected 2-1 by British voters in a referendum held on 5 May 2011.
Reform campaigners face the obstacle of large incumbent parties who control the legislature and have an incentive to resist any attempts to replace the FPTP system that elected them on a minority vote – turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.
The laws regarding state funding of political parties (including short money rules) complicate the campaign to scrap FPTP in the UK. The Labour Party, for example, receives significant funds from the UK state by retaining its status as the Official Opposition party: in the 2018/19 financial year, the Labour Party received £7,880,000, equivalent to 79% of total state funding, despite receiving only 40% of the popular vote in the prior general election. Under proportional representation, Labour’s status as the Official Opposition party would be vulnerable. Therefore its level of state funding would also be at risk, thus providing a financial incentive for Labour to retain FPTP. The Conservative Party benefits considerably from the same effect when in Opposition.
Scholars rate voting methods using mathematically derived voting method criteria, which describe desirable features of a method. No ranked preference method can meet all the requirements because some of them are mutually exclusive.
The majority criterion states that ‘if one candidate is preferred by a majority (more than 50%) of voters, that candidate must win’. FPTP meets this criterion (though not the converse: a candidate does not need 50% of the votes to win). Although the majority criterion is met for each constituency vote, it is not achieved when adding up the total votes for a winning party in a parliament.
The mutual majority criterion states that ‘if a majority (more than 50%) of voters top-rank some candidates, then one of those candidates must win’. FPTP does not meet this criterion.
The Condorcet winner criterion states that ‘if a candidate would win a head-to-head competition against every other candidate, that candidate must win the overall election’. FPTP does not meet this criterion.
The Condorcet loser criterion states that ‘if a candidate would lose a head-to-head competition against every other candidate, that candidate must not win the overall election’. FPTP does not meet this criterion.
The independence of irrelevant alternatives criterion states that ‘the election outcome remains the same even if a candidate who cannot win decides to run’. FPTP does not meet this criterion.
The independence of clones criterion states that ‘the election outcome remains the same even if an identical candidate who is equally-preferred decides to run’. FPTP does not meet this criterion.
The more I learn about FPTP and other forms of representative democracy, the more convinced I am that the people of Britain deserve direct democracy. Direct democracy becomes ever more feasible with advances in technology that make holding referendums much more accessible now than when FPTP was introduced centuries ago.
It’s time to consign FPTP to the dustbin of history as a relic of the past.
[Please read Part 1 here]
There are more important things to worry about than who gets to be MP etc and ( As Viv puts it ) Peacock around. They ‘re there to slow things down, or to bring up awkward problems, and whip up or calm down knee jerking, and to examine in depth ( open debate) for the best course for changes ( Select committees ). etc.
But do we really want any change .?
The present most dangerous organisation isthe Civil Service. It has an essential position and functions. It has grown into a typical nationalised industry. Exactly as has the NHS . Etc. and exactly as has the commons, the HoL, the Quangos etc They want to be peacocks.They no longer know their place . They all want to be admired for plumage. ( Not beauty, just show )
Tidy that and you’ve got a functioning country again. Easy. And I might point out :– obvious.
First last the post is ok if single transferable vote is implemented within a single member constituency. Your first preference, if eliminated, would result in your vote being transferred to your next choice. The winner would be the candidate who reaches 50% of the votes. The wasted vote view would be removed.
The UK Alternative Voting Referendum 2011 suggested there is no appetite for an alternative voting system. 67% NO. 33 % YES.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum
In my rural Tory constituency I voted for the AV system as I was very active with UKIP at that time but on the doorstep most said they were not fans of the Tory Party but they feared AV may split the vote and let in LIB DEMS who they considered (like Labour) would open the multi-culti flood gates.
Suppose many Labour constituents didn’t want an AV system fearing Lib Dems and possibly Greens splitting the vote and getting a foothold in their tribal lands.
Some people have called for a system where you have a larger area and the total vote is then divided among the the number of MP’s for that area (sorry, I don’t know what that system is called). That way if a party gets a larger number of votes then they get a larger number of MP’s these winners are selected from a party list starting at the top and working down depending how many MP’s get selected due to the vote breakdown.
This is totally UN-Democratic as the list will be compiled by the party leader. We have seen at the last election that two very well-known MP’s would have been at the top of their local lists but the local people voted them OUT. The two MP’s are ED Balls for the Labour Party and Nick Clegg for the Liberals. This shows that the Party Members there wanted to get rid of them.
The only way this system can be used is if their position in the lists is decided by the local party members prior to the election not by the leaders who may be scared to throw them off the list.
Unless I have missed it in amongst all this information, I havent seen anybody mention the fact that recently, government promised to re-draw the electoral boundaries. Thus the Country would be more fairly represented by numbers of residents per constituency. In consequence, 50MPs would be lost from the HOC. Think of the saving to the nation in fees and expenses!!!!
‘Naturally’! once Boris got his stonking majority in December 2019 that all fell by the wayside……again! If the electoral boundaries were more equally drawn, surely FPTP would actually work fairly well.
I do agree with the general feeling that postal voting should be withdrawn except for the very old, the infirm or seriously disabled. I also feel that presenting oneself at the polling station armed with just a voting card and having your name ticked off by a clerk should be tightened up in some way to ensure that no-one old vote in more than one area as I believe has been found to be happening sometimes. The IMAM vote scam should most definitely be outlawed!
Indeed Frederica postal voting should only be an option for those genuinely unable to attend in person. The redrawing of boundaries could go on for ever in order to seek a balance. It could be solved by using an electronic voting system in the HoC which could easily apportion votes by constituency voter population and even exclude the votes of those who had not been present for a substantial part of the discussion.
Piffle.
I actually think we should stick with FPTP but scrap postal voting, one should present ones self along with ID before ticking the box. Just remember all the fraudulent voting in America to get the present incumbent into office, along with the multiple votes lodged by Imams for their non English speaking cult members!
Indeed Mike; I’m sure postal voting is subject to massive fraud especially amongst immigrant communities. The small minority with a legitimate need could be transported to the polling station. Of course it would be difficult to eliminate coercion in those communities; we are paying the price for government not controlling immigration by sensible means in years past such as time limited work permits.
Is Proportional Representation really better than First Past The Post? One problem with PR is that it leads to coalition government, as only rarely under PR does a single party get an overall majority of seats. That makes it easier for party leaders to make false promises at election time. Under PR they don’t expect to have to keep promises in their election manifestos, when coalition partners will demand compromise on manifesto promises as the price of coalition.
For instance, before the 2015 general election David Cameron promised a referendum on EU membership because he knew that the LibDems would demand breach of that promise as the price of coalition with them. Unfortunately for Cameron the opinion polls were wrong and the Tories won an overall majority in the Commons, instead of the LibDem/Tory coalition that the opinion polls predicted. The 17,410,742 votes for Leave on the 23rd June 2016 were made possible by FPTP.
Good points there Ralph. I had become half persuaded towards P.R. but your point about it making it easier to ignore manifesto promises has moved me back.
I chuckled at what you say about the referendum promise. So much for opinion polls too!
Now that Ukip seems like a has been for most of us, P.R. has lost it’s appeal anyway.
Let’s concentrate on any means to undermine the power of the Lab/Con Party machines.
Having ploughed through all that is wrong with the various electoral systems we get to the penultimate paragraph in which “direct democracy” is presented as the way forward. But no explanation as to what it is or why it should be adopted.
If it is a credible improvement on what we have then I would expect Part 3 to make the case. But no Part 3. So no thank you!
Pauline. I will do my best.
For the Euro elections we had a variation of Proportional Representation. It showed that a minority party like UKIP could make an impact.
The problem is that the Candidates are all chosen by “The Party” on a Regional basis, not by the electorate.
As the votes are counted names are taken from “The Party” lists,starting at the top.
I live in West Cumbria. That is part of The North West Region, which stretches from South Cheshire to the Scottish Border at Carlisle. Most of the names on the “party” lists come from the more populous Southern area, Merseyside and Greater Manchester plus the wealthy parts of Cheshire. We have nothing in common with them. We are ethncally and culturally different, yet we end up being represented by someone we do not know, have never seen and who has not the remotest idea of what makes us tick.
Is that a GOOD IDEA? Is it really DEMOCRATIC?
So it’s back to FPTP… with at least one proviso. That each Constituency Party must choose their candidate, ideally a long-term resident of that constituency, without interference from the National Party. That is a small revolution and it can only be carried out by Party activists. They should not feel like turkeys voting for Christmas. They should realise that it is the only way that they and their party of choice can hope to retain any credibility.
Then abolish the Whips and finally introduce a system whereby an MP can be recalled, disciplined,or dismissed by his/her/it’s electorate.
Thanks Richard.
The one thing about FPTP is that just abour everybody understands it, and accepts it. The saying that comes to mind is: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
Agreed Phillip.
No one else commented yet?
Well, I just do not understand all these figures and systems about P.R. Also, I don’t think multi referendums would work. How many can be bothered to vote over and over again?
I did not know about ‘short money’ and that seems wrong to me. I agree parliament needs an effective opposition but it doesn’t have one now in spite of short money so that does not work. Lab and Con are both rich enough to fund their M.P.’s surely.
It’s the Party System that makes the FPTP system undemocratic and there were many good suggestions yesterday on how to put that problem right.
Let’s hear them again. Abolish the Whips for starters.
A small first step:-
Talking of whips, why not whip up the electorate to only vote for candidates that have lived in the constituency for say last three years now or five years in the past.
If smaller outfits got together to make a ‘big thing’ out of Candidates living ‘here’ all my life and so on . . . .?
A rallying cry by ALL the smaller parties could make ‘No *** Parachutes Here – Vote for People Who Care’.
*** Cons/Lab/nonDem/grean/etc – delete as appropriate
I’m not suggesting we should abolish Parties. There are many ways to limit the power of their central office and give that power back to the constituents and/or the Party members in the constituencies.