Now that our dear Prime Minister has come back from paying her respects to the journalist shot dead in Belfast, she must concentrate on her problems in the House of Commons.
There is talk of her bringing the WA back to Parliament for a fourth time. But will Speaker Bercow allow it? After all, the rules say the same question can’t be asked twice. I would imagine he faced a lot of pressure before he allowed it to come back to MPs a third time. Will he capitulate again?
If he does allow it to be put again, is it likely to be passed? There is certainly some tedium creeping into the members of the House of Commons, as there is in the country. Many of them just ‘want to get on with it’ and have it finished one way or the other.
I’d like to think MPs are a sturdy lot and stick up for what they believe in, but perhaps that is being a bit naïve. For sure, there are quite a few who are prepared to continue to vote against the capitulation within the WA (how does Mrs May get away with assuring the House and the country that it is a good deal for the UK when it obviously is not?). MPs like Sir John Redwood and Sir Bill Cash should be applauded for their stoic resistance to the deal.
There are others like Jacob Rees-Mogg, for whom I had such great hopes but who we now find would be prepared to sell his soul to the devil. After this has all died down, I expect an announcement that he has been appointed to a cosy and lucrative little post somewhere.
Because of the huge yet dwindling majority at the first three times the WA was presented to the house, I would imagine there is a very hard rump of members of both parties who would not vote for it under any circumstances.
So Mrs May’s only hope is to persuade Jeremy Corbyn to instruct his members to vote for it. What has government come to when a Prime Minister can’t get a law through the House of Commons using her own party and has to go cap-in-hand to the Leader of the Opposition?
Corbyn, of course, knows this. He has got her over a barrel, which is why the talks are going on so long. He can demand anything he wants in the knowledge that she is desperate. She’s holding out at the moment, but so is he. Will they ever reach a consensus? If they do, you can bet it’ll be a sell-out for the Conservative Party.
But what if May considers his demands to be beyond the pale? What if they both refuse to budge and the talks break down? What are her options then? She would be a fool to bring the WA back to the House without Corbyn’s agreement, so I would imagine that’s out of the window.
So we’ll go into next week’s local elections, and the Tories will be slaughtered. May must know this; she’s not an idiot. She will have been studying the polls and will realise that even if the local elections have very little to do with Brexit, grassroots Tories are pig-sick of what she’s doing.
She’s going to lose several councils to Labour, others to no overall control and I suggest Independents have a fighting chance. There’ll be voters who have voted the same way all their lives but would never vote for their party again. But they wouldn’t vote for the opposition party in a month of Sundays. Who do they vote for? They might just stay at home; I suggest the turnout will be remarkably low.
But May isn’t worried about the locals. All she cares about is her place in Downing Street – which is precisely why she won’t call a General Election. She knows full well that she’d have to move out because the Tories won’t win the majority of seats, although I think Labour will do badly as well. Corbyn is no leader.
May isn’t concerned about the EU elections either, for the same reason. Let all the Brexiteers like Farage win the seats! There’ll be chaos in Brussels, but it won’t be her problem.
But if she has failed to have her WA approved in Parliament, what’s her next step? She could go for a second referendum, despite saying over and over again that she wouldn’t (remember “We’ll be leaving on 29 March 2019”?). That would take several months to organise and we can imagine the question will be loaded. If, having ignored the result of the last referendum, she goes down that route, how will the British public be able to trust anything she says ever again?
She could do nothing and leave the EU without a deal by default on May 22nd but although there are lots of us who would welcome that, at heart, she is a Remainer and thus unlikely to let that happen.
She could resign – and the peoples’ favourite at the moment is Boris Johnson, who would certainly see to it that we left the bloc on WTO rules. However, the leader/Prime Minister is chosen by the Parliamentary party and they are mostly Remainers. They will do their best to ensure Boris doesn’t get into the top spot, despite the prospect of his leading the party to electoral success.
She could ask Brussels for a renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement, although Barnier and co have said time and time again that it simply won’t happen.
There could be a no confidence vote in the Government which, if passed, would give May just 14 days to persuade enough MPs to vote for her in a second no confidence vote. If she lost the second vote there would be a General Election which many Tory MPs would want to avoid.
There could be a censure vote against the Prime Minister. If that were passed, although that would be humiliating for her, it would not necessarily force her to resign.
Alternatively, the government could decide to cancel Brexit altogether, although that would plunge the country into constitutional chaos. That may be the answer, and I would vote for it on the grounds that we the people could eventually get a Brexiteer into No.10 who would take us out without all this fuss.
However this situation pans out, both the country and the House of Commons seem to be polarised: one side fervently in favour of Brexit and the other side wanting to stay in the EU. I suggest that eventually, we will see two groups, each comprising current MPs from both the left and the right. This has already started with the launch of Change UK, a party that wants anything but change! MPs of all hues have joined the party whose specific aim is to stop the Brexit procedure and stay in the EU.
And Farage’s Brexit Party has received support from both Tories like Ann Widdecombe and Labour Brexiteers. When these two factions come face to face, there will be a constitutional battle like we have never seen before.
Yes, JRMogg voted for the WA on the third vote, but it must not be forgotten that so did Boris Johnson. Now look again at the WA, it is a terrible surrender to the EU, worse than Remain. Ok not worse than Remain but the same as Remain. If we don’t Leave this country will be finished as we know it! So EVERYONE who voted for that agreement is a traitor and there are a lot who have surprised.
My own feelings are that there is now a high likelihood that many MPs have been threatened with exposure of ‘dirty little secrets’. Remember the expenses scandal? Almost everyone and their dogs were at it. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the two timers and the paedophiles, or even those with the likes in their families have had their little talk with the PTB.
There will be only one answer to this state of affairs and we all know what that is. The LibLabCon Party must go! Anyone who has stayed honest and loyal to our country has no place in these parties.
For that reason I will not have anything to do with so called ‘cross party discussions’ they are a waste of time and I will state as loud as I can WHY!
Having read the comments I would just like to say with respect to those who comment. There is no excuse for agreeing to the WA! There is no intellectual or otherwise argument that mitigates their actions! There will not be any sympathy for those Traitors! If you think that this is an intellectual argument and that money, education or status will keep you comfortable and detached then you too have a lot to learn!
WHEN YOUR DOWN A HOLE, STOP DIGGING ! ………. ( From an OAP who is disgusted with our National standing ).
We are stuck with a useless Prime Minister. – She heads a divided Government. – This Nation is in a mess and the Opposition can only try for Party benefit. – Consensus is a good idea, but the players are all lightweights. – The Crown does not wish to be drawn into this mess, but might have to take action. – The EU can only hope to add more EU demands. – The People gave a verdict in a referendum, that has not been actioned. – Democracy has been trodden over. – Brexit has become the most tedious of subjects, yet has to be cleared. – Government allows the Law to take action against our, now retired Soldiers. – Other items of Law are in urgent need of examination. – We have little money but a lot of borrowing. – Though in debt, we are ‘keen’ to throw what we don’t have at the world. – We are preparing to pass money to the EU for no benefit in goods or services. – Inbuilt Law breaking, minor and major goes unchecked. – Terrorism is within our Nation. – We are sleepwalking into being taken over by an alien culture and belief system. – We are content to lose what previous generations gave their lives for ! – The UK may well break apart into its separate Nations ! – We are falling down the toilet at speed !
Is this a Nation that we can be proud of ? – Will the People resort to Civil War ? – Can voters ‘think’ before voting ?
In the meantime, we will have another cup of tea ! – Biscuit anyone ?
A cup of tea won’t work for me anymore. I am going to dig ahole and fill it in or chop some logs for the coming winter.
Excellent article, Debbie. hank you very much.
🙂
Corbyn with May over a barrel! Just imagine it; but one needs a laugh occasionally to remain sane at times like this.
The mind boggles and the imagination runs riot!
Again, I say, how can any self respecting so called Brexiteer remain a member of the Consertive party? Brexiteer party members can no longer rely on the likes of JRM who has lost his nerve but look to Ann Widdicombe who has left the party and joined the Brexit Party. It is the actions of people like her that the Tory party fear as they can’t be bought like JRM and his ilk.
Jacob Rees Mogg is correct. To understand his position which he has stated many times you should go back to the Anglo Irish treaty of 1921 where the Irish were presented with a treaty that divided the country. But once the British army left the country everything chanced and after a brief civil war (probably over land) Complete independence eventually became a reality …… until the EU came along.
Very good point from Edward about the 1921 Treaty. Readers should take the opportunity to watch the excellent film ‘Michael Collins’ for an easy, if not entirely accurate history lesson if they are not aware of the events . The Treaty was in many ways similar to the Withdrawal Agreement, which drew up the Irish Free State, or independence in – name-only treaty that fell short of delivering a free Ireland.
Collins was the hero-turned villain in the affair, who believed that the Free State was a stepping stone (historically partly correct) but his ultimate fate was to be sealed due to him turning from a hard republican to what many saw as a puppet of the Crown.
Unfair IMHO. I believe him to have been the greatest Irishman of the last century.
Will Mogg be remembered by history as a great man, or a bit-player?
The jury is out .
Also read ‘The Churchill Factor’ by Boris Johnson. In it you will get to understand what makes him tick too.
Johnson IMHO also has a date with destiny. Hopefully a kinder one than that which befell Collins.
Mr Bav/Edward Your logic would suggest that the Brexit Party is just a waste of time and we should roll over and accept Mrs May’s WA. The Conservative Party is rotten to the core and is openly destroying democracy and it may pay the ultimate price for its treachery.
Look to how the mighty Liberal Party collapsed when it moved towards socialism and stopped being ‘liberal’. The Conservatives may be repeating history as they stop being ‘conservative’.
Cash and Baker to my knowledge have no links to the City of London and are in no-ones pocket Mogg on the other hand has huge investment business links and we do not know if this is a factor in some way linked to his capitulation.
Politics is not an “all or nothing” game. Politics is called “The art of the possible”. And Mrs May’s treaty seems to be the only thing that meets that requirement. Again, going back to the Anglo Irish treaty, everything changed when British rule over Ireland was withdrawn.
Therefore once EU rule over Britain is withdrawn then the EU cannot come back and say that you must obey their rules in anything that does no suit you, you are free to make the law or change the law to suit your own electorate. You certainly have no obligation to obey laws made in Germany or France or America.
You can stand on your own two feet and take your place among the nations of the world.
Good points Debbie
The council elections will be an utter disaster for the Tories and the turnout will be appalling. However right now no one cares. Certainly not me, none of my candidates are Brexit and none can run a whelk stall, so I will not dignify them with a vote.
I think that WA will get through purely because the Tories and half of Labour don’t want to risk their jobs and money in a general election and that the EU elections will be cancelled. There’s no way that the Establishment will tolerate up to 70 Brexit MEPs, and nor will Brussels. ONLY WA will stop those elections.
After that , as no parliament can be compelled to follow decisions made previously, a BoJo government – it will only be BoJo if the Tory grassroots kick up a fuss- can either renegotiate WA or brush it under the carpet, for at least a couple of years.
However NOTHING we do in the UK will prevent a populist surge in the EU come May 23rd and all that comes with it. The other 27 might well start playing up, leading to fractures within the evil empire much sooner than we think.
We can only hope.
In the meantime, to divert the public away from politics in the next few weeks, expect a Royal family crisis or perhaps a significant death.
We’re certainly down for a royal birth Bav! And I hope the Duke of Edinburgh is well.
And yes, you could easily be right in that there’ll be a lot of anti-EU candidates from all over the Continent in Brussels after the Euros. Tusk and his ilk will then start fighting really hard to keep their noses in the EU trough. The more they fight, the stronger the anti-Europeans will be, but it’ll get bloody, literally, before there’s a winner.
It won’t be the Duke…….
Ooooh!! Sounds like you’ve got wind of a conspiracy. What have you heard? I’m intrigued!
Shhh! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMbvJEBtSvQ
Oooh errr!!
I’ll post this video here because it give an idea as to the frightening totalitarian world that we’ll be living in if we don’t fight for our freedom and that fight start with Brexit.
“Preferred Pronouns Or Prison”
https://youtu.be/cn5opUFNs-I
I agree with Debbie, I don’t see this ending well and haven’t for a long time, when the real scrap kicks off we must win it. Perhaps we should be cooperating more with the Eastern European countries and perhaps ultimately Italy. I can certainly see where the fault lines are appearing in Europe and have a nasty feeling that in due course we’re going to see history repeated, unfortunately I don’t think it’ll be confined to Europe either.
Agreed. The ‘pronouns’ game is all part of the plot to gag us. If we accept the absurd – and petty- notions that made-up nonsense like ‘thon’ ‘ze’ and ‘xe’ can replace the pronouns he and she, and if we accept that ships and boats are now ‘gender neutral’ we become easier pray for even more sinister attempts to manipulate thought.
I will however offer a small compromise. From now on I will refer to transexuals, transvestites and other variations of the theme as ‘it’ .
Then no one need be offended.
And since Her Majesty’s ships don’t ever change sex, or have artificial penises attached to them on the NHS, they will remain ‘she’
Changing the subject a little, it is all about brainwashing.
No? Then think of the age of brainwashed children interviewed on prime time television pontificating about the end of the world in twenty years or much less.
At the age of many of them, 16 and under, I was more interested in getting qualifications in sciences, languages and mathematics, plus history and geography and so on.
Now, and its happened to me, one gets told off for saying watcha.
So now I go through the ritual of:- bonjour, ola, strasvitcha, shalom, bonjourno, gutten tag, hoy medock, I see you, and so on.
Thinks – thank God I didn’t say watcha cock (as in cock sparra=marra).
I agree totally except that too many people ‘ paid’ by local government, education, NHS, the supposed public services, publicly funded supposed charities, the , NGO’s ‘the ‘ARTS’ which include the BBC/SKY , not to mention their respective pensioners, for any meaningful change here, few now are employed by companies that actually produce anything and have to be profitable and that effects the work ethic in many ways not always obvious.
Until the money runs out ( and apparently there is no chance of that happening as the government has wasted millions on ‘no deal’ preparations and now the e.u elections all without any censure ) or some sort of conflict driven by the e.u actually effects the masses nothing will change.
Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas but since 1998 millions have voted for a free ride, more ‘bennies’ and more of the same, the example is from the top and it’s now in full view, but it seems millions are quite content to accept it. If there is any change it will be as usual the few that make a difference, the question is though, will ‘they think’ it’s worth it?