With the 2019 general election only a couple of days away, Boris Johnson’s lead over Labour has now stabilised at 10 points, with the latest opinion polls revealing that Labour’s momentum is falling away as they struggle to narrow the gap. Mr Johnson and Mr Corbyn will each be making their final push for Downing Street this week as election night looms, with opinion polls so far showing the Conservative Party still in front with an average lead of 10-points. Despite both leaders facing criticism, Mr Johnson’s “get Brexit done” message appears to be cutting through the noise, while Mr Corbyn has struggled to break over 35 points in the polls.
Boris Johnson is on course for a Conservative majority of 28 seats, according to a new poll. However, YouGov predicts the Prime Minister is down 40 seats in the past two weeks and a hung parliament could still be on the cards. Meanwhile, the poll suggests Labour could be in for its worst result in 30 years. The polling company, having analysed 105,000 voter interviews between December 4 and 10, predicts the Tories would win 339 seats, giving the governing party a majority of 28.
Britain goes to the polls on Thursday in an election that could return a range of outcomes, all with major implications for the future of the country. Here are five possible scenarios that could emerge overnight between Thursday and Friday:
|Lose 71+||Labour majority||Labour government||Jeremy Corbyn’s wildest dreams come true|
|Lose 7-70||Hung parliament||Labour minority government||Jeremy Corbyn’s unexpected triumph, but he would need support (or abstention) of other parties to become PM|
|Lose up to 6; gain up to 3||Hung parliament||No change||Disaster for Conservatives, who would still need DUP support to form a government and so Boris Johnson would need a new Brexit deal|
|Gain 4-14||Tory working majority of 1-21||Johnson weak and stable||Boris Johnson could probably take us out of the EU, but trade negotiations after that would look tricky|
|Gain 15+||Tory working majority of 23+||Johnson dominant||Historic win: the biggest for the Tories since 1987; Johnson with a mandate for a hard Brexit and five years in power|
The absolute majority matters in comparing with previous elections. In 2015 David Cameron’s absolute majority was 12, the difference between the number of Conservative seats, 331, and all other parties, 319, in a House of Commons of 650. But because there were then five Sinn Fein MPs who didn’t take their seats, Cameron had a working majority of 17 (331 to 314). The working majority matters to a government trying to get its laws through parliament.
Boris Johnson is to launch a final assault on Labour’s heartlands as a survey shows that he can no longer be sure of securing a Commons majority in tomorrow’s election. The polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago suggests that the Conservatives are on course to win 339 seats, Labour 231, the Liberal Democrats 15 and the Scottish National Party 41. Although that would give Mr Johnson a majority of 28, the poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311.
Boris Johnson is likely to win the general election with a majority of 28, according to a highly anticipated new poll. But the margin of error means that experts cannot rule out a hung parliament. Labour will take heart that the 28-seat lead is a full 40 seats lower than the same polling predicted two weeks ago suggesting they are managing to squeeze out undecided voters or those considering smaller parties. YouGov’s ‘MRP’ poll was the first to accurately predict a hung Parliament in the 2017 election.
BORIS Johnson’s lead has been slashed by more than half to a 28-seat majority with just two days to go until the general election, a major new poll has revealed. The YouGov MRP poll for The Times, which correctly forecast the election results in 2017, has revealed Boris will need every vote at Thursday’s ballot. This is despite the projected majority meaning the Tories will have clinched 339 seats – 22 more than the general election two years ago when they received 317.
Boris Johnson is on course to win the general election with a majority of 28, but his lead over Labour has shrunk in the final weeks of the campaign, according to the polling analysis which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017. YouGov’s final MRP model predicts that the Conservatives will win 339 seats, with Jeremy Corbyn‘s party on 231 and the Liberal Democrats on 15. The seat-by-seat model, which is based on thousands of interviews, puts the Tories on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 34 per cent.
THE EU is beleaguered by “widespread” corruption, companies in 18 out of the 23 member states believe according to a poll published Monday on behalf of the Brussels bloc. The findings have sent a wave of anxiety and uncertainty amongst member states such as Austria, where 57 percent of companies say corruption is “very” or “fairly” widespread. This is compared with only 31 percent of companies in Germany. The poll discovered the EU corruption level average is a shocking 63 percent.
Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he would appoint a new team of ministers to negotiate a fresh Brexit deal – backing both Leave and Remain – after criticism of who would carry out the role. The announcement throws doubt on the continued influence of Keir Starmer, the current Remain-supporting shadow Brexit Secretary, who was not mentioned by the Labour leader. Boris Johnson has questioned how Labour could meet its pledge to strike a “credible” Brexit deal, if it wins the general election, when almost all its senior figures have said they would vote to stay in the EU in the Final Say referendum that followed.
JEREMY Corbyn today failed to stand up for five million Labour leavers who feel betrayed by his party’s Brexit policy. The party boss, who has now u-turned to back a second Brexit referendum after years of dithering, was asked whether he’d left his supporters behind. He told BBC Breakfast earlier: “I am representing everybody… actually that brings people together. “I am not here to represent the 48 per cent or 52 per cent of people, I’m here to make sure that everybody is represented.” The Labour leader said he would appoint a range of ministers from across the country and Brexit divide to help secure his new Brexit deal if he becomes PM.
JEREMY CORBYN has been brutally exposed for letting down Labour heartlands over his party’s handling of Brexit in the lead up to this week’s election. The Labour leader told the BBC: “I will be the honest broker in Brexit”, despite having never confirming whether he will back leaving or remaining in the EU if his party wins a majority government on Thursday. Mr Corbyn was also asked about his plan to negotiate a new deal with the EU, but denied this would be a “betrayal” of Leave voters, as the negotiating team would be “balanced”.
A victory for Jeremy Corbyn on Thursday would see the UK led by a “Hamas-backing, IRA-supporting, anti-Semitism condoning appeaser of the Kremlin,” Boris Johnson has declared. Speaking at a JCB factory in Staffordshire, Mr Johnson said Mr Corbyn was a security risk and could not be trusted with the keys to Number 10. The final two days of the campaign were disrupted this morning when Jon Ashworth, Mr Corbyn’s shadow health secretary, was revealed to have expressed concerns about national security under a Labour government.
Jeremy Corbyn has desperately tried to downplay damaging remarks made about him by Jonathan Ashworth as he claimed the shadow health secretary was joking when he labelled the Labour leader a security risk. Mr Ashworth was recorded telling a Conservative friend that Mr Corbyn was proving a massive problem on the doorstep in the party’s traditional heartlands. The Labour frontbencher said the remarks were ‘banter’ but they were seized on by Boris Johnson as the Prime Minister claimed they demonstrated why Mr Corbyn must not be allowed into Number 10.
Jeremy Corbyn has dismissed a recording of one of his most senior colleagues saying Labour would not win the election and suggesting the civil service would have to “safeguard security” if he became prime minister as “banter”. Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, who was recorded without his knowledge by a Conservative friend, said the election for Labour was “dire” outside urban areas. Corbyn dismissed the leaked exchange as a private “bit of banter between two old friends” during a campaign visit to Carlisle, a key marginal held by the Tories with a majority of 2,599 votes.
Fifteen former Labour MPs have launched an unprecedented advertising campaign on the eve of the election urging voters not to back Jeremy Corbyn tomorrow. In a devastating open letter, they warn the Labour leader will deliver the opposite of a ‘safer, fairer society’, citing his record on anti-Semitism, extremism and national security. They declare the party is no longer the one they supported all their lives and warn the risk of Mr Corbyn getting into No 10 is ‘too great’.
Jeremy Corbyn will not win the general election but if he did the civil service machine would “pretty quickly move to safeguard security”, a shadow minister said in a leaked audio recording. Jon Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, repeatedly said in a phone call with a friend that he “can’t see” Jeremy Corbyn winning the election and becoming prime minister. He said that the situation in Labour’s traditional heartlands was “dire” and “abysmal”. In a recording obtained by the Guido Fawkes website he told the friend, who is a Tory activist, to “stop worrying” about the prospects of a Labour election victory because “it’s not going to happen”.
Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt. Analysis of Labour’s Inclusive Ownership Fund for The Telegraph by the Centre for Economics and Business Research shows overall economic output 3.1pc smaller in 20 years’ time as a result of the policy, which was branded even more dangerous than left-wing firebrand Tony Benn’s 1970s plans to nationalise the UK’s 100 biggest companies.
JEREMY CORBYN’s tax assault on Britons to pay for the Labour Party’s eye-watering £83billion spending spree would include a marriage tax that would blow a £250 hole in the pockets of up to 3.6million lower-paid workers. The general election on Thursday will determine whether the Conservatives remain in power, or the Labour Party wrestles the keys to 10 Downing Street, with Jeremy Corbyn ousting Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. Success for the Labour leader would see him launch a tax assault on tens of millions of Britons in a desperate bid to pay for the party’s huge spending plans.
JEREMY CORBYN has been accused of waging a “blatant attack on drivers”, with a new £11billion windfall tax on oil companies threatening to send petrol prices through the roof and forcing motorists off the road. The Labour Party has said it would impose a one-off multi-billion pound tax on windfall profits against oil companies that would potentially force them to hike the price of fuel just to balance their books. This could hit drivers at the petrol pumps, sending fuel prices soaring by as much as 16p per litre and forcing motorists to spend an extra £90 a year.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson will bolster his argument on Tuesday for leaving the European Union early next year, urging voters to return him to power so Britain can “rip up the EU rule book and write a new one for ourselves”. Just days before Britain votes in an election he called to try to break the deadlock over Brexit, Johnson will repeat his desire to “finally get Brexit done” on a tour of traditionally Labour supporting areas he hopes to win over. He will also hope to get his campaign back on track after he was criticised on Monday for his response to being shown a photo of a sick child lying on a hospital floor and after being heckled by a voter over his election tactics.
Boris Johnson has said the criminal justice system “isn’t delivering” as he promised tougher sentences for terrorists, sex offenders and violent criminals if the Conservatives are re-elected. The Prime Minister’s pledge comes amid growing anger in government following a series of high profile failings in which criminals freed early went on to commit further offences. Joseph McCann was this week jailed for life with a minimum of 30 years after he was mistakenly freed from prison to go on a rampage in which he raped or sexually assaulted 11 women and children.
Britain’s foreign aid department could be axed if Boris Johnson wins the general election. Officials have been asked to consider what to do with the Department for International Development (Dfid) in a shake-up of Whitehall after polling day. The department, which controls most of Britain’s £14billion aid budget, has faced frequent criticism for waste and muddle since it was set up by Labour in 1997. The Tory manifesto commits the Conservatives to keeping the controversial target of spending 0.7 per cent of Britain’s income on aid while also doing more ‘to help countries receiving aid become self-sufficient’.
The Brexit Party
He has been warned he risks going from ‘hero to zero’ if there is a hung parliament but Nigel Farage appeared in no mood for compromise on Tuesday – despite a second prospective Brexit Party MP standing down. Already accused of splitting the Leave vote in Labour constituencies, the Brexit Party leader doubled down by urging Tory leavers to vote tactically for his party in more than 100 constituencies where the Conservatives “have not won in living memory and are not going to win in this election”.
THE founder of the Brexit Party yesterday urged all Leavers to vote Tory as she accused Nigel Farage of going on “a monumental ego trip”. Catherine Blaiklock set up the party earlier this year, registering its name and becoming its official owner. She claims she was elbowed out by the veteran anti-EU campaigner after he demanded total control. Ms Blaiklock turned on her former friend as well as the Brexit Party’s chairman yesterday to say: “Nigel and Richard Tice’s whole strategy has been a disaster.”
In a last-ditch effort to stop a hard Brexit, campaigners for a Final Say referendum are calling on Liberal Democrat and Labour candidates in 20 key general election seats to cease campaigning and announce they are voting for Remain-backing rivals who stand a better chance of denying Boris Johnson a majority. The eve-of-poll plea came as new polling suggested that in at least one constituency – Stockton South – a few thousands votes for the third-placed Liberal Democrats could make the difference between Labour and Conservative victory on Thursday.
A Labour shadow minister has confirmed that a Labour government would radically tear up the rules of British democracy by giving EU citizens living in the United Kingdom a vote in a second Brexit referendum, saying the decision was not just down to people “born here”. Speaking to Mishal Husain on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Friday, Labour’s shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey confirmed that her party was committed to extending the voting franchise to non-British citizens.
Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister, has challenged Boris Johnson’s claim that under his Brexit deal there would be no checks or controls on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Britain. Coveney insisted that under the terms of the withdrawal agreement the prime minister negotiated with the European Union there would be inspections on goods moving in both directions. “It was very clear when the deal was done,” he said in Brussels on Monday. “The EU has made it clear they want to minimise the impact on goods coming from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, but at the same time goods coming from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will need to have some checks to ensure that the EU knows what is potentially coming into their market through Northern Ireland.”
NICOLA STURGEON has been attacked over her record on education, with one Scottish Conservative MSP quick to criticise the number of teachers currently in the country. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been attacked over the serious decline in teachers across Scotland since the SNP came to power. Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife and Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Education, Liz Smith, wrote on Twitter: ”There are still 2,853 fewer teachers than when the SNP came to power.” There was one reply to Ms Smith’s tweet that read, “and sadly, who really cares!”
Another referendum on Scottish independence should take place shortly after a second Brexit vote even if the UK votes to remain part of the EU, Nicola Sturgeon has said. The First Minister said the “contemptuous” way in which Scotland had been treated following 2016’s vote meant that indyref2 was now essential regardless of the outcome of Brexit. She also suggested it was possible that a Scottish independence referendum could be held on the same day as second Brexit vote, but that this was unlikely. The SNP leader is planning to submit a formal request for the powers to hold a legally binding referendum on independence before Christmas, regardless of who is in Downing Street.
Labour are seeking to make the final days of the election campaign about the NHS, which they claimed is in crisis because of “Tory cuts”. Are their claims accurate? Have 17,000 beds been cut? Bed numbers have halved since the 1980s, with hospitals getting better at treating patients as day cases and discharging them quickly. Day beds have increased by 10 per cent since 2010 to 12,957. However, it is true that there are 17,230 fewer overnight beds available in the NHS than in the first quarter of 2010-11, with a total of 127,225. The biggest fall has been in learning-disability and mental-health beds, which are down by a quarter.