With a General Election looming, the Conservatives are seemingly riding high in the polls, surfing on the public’s anger directed towards Parliament. Johnson is cast as the hero, battling the House of Commons and Speaker but being thwarted at every turn. As John Longworth’s article says, we are close to “endgame”. However, it may not be the endgame the Tories are hoping for.
Have we seen this all before? If you recall, PM May called a General Election (GE) in similar circumstances to Johnson, she too was riding high in the polls, then fell flat, and never recovered.
Some are predicting a Johnson landslide, I am predicting the complete opposite and here’s why. The Conservatives are close to making the same mistakes as 2017, this next GE will be all about Brexit, regardless of any manifesto.
1) Johnson has declared that he will campaign in a GE for his deal treaty.This, in my view, is a catastrophic misjudgement. Essentially, what he has done is take the ‘No deal’ WTO deal out of his campaign armoury and gifted it to Farage and the Brexit Party (TBP). He could have easily sat on his fence, and probably come out all right. Now, there is clear difference between his vision and that of Farage. What if the public don’t like his BRINO deal and want a clean break? If the menu choice is voting for a clean break Brexit, or Johnson’s BRINO, it will very costly for Johnson. This has essentially split his leave vote. Even if Johnson does a U-turn, the damage has been done. Notice how the Tories have gone quiet on the Brexit bill, I expect the £39 billion to play a prominent role in the GE. You can just picture the picture on the bus now…
2) Johnson’s credibility surely is questionable. Here with the fisheries, here with the DUP, here and here with regard to NI companies trading with mainland, then with his new completely rehashed May Johnson deal, here with veterans and of course with Brexit Day, October 31st. He may have managed to avoid difficult questions so far from a compliant MSM, however on a TV debate he may become unstuck. Johnson has created so much ammunition for his opponents by his own actions, a clever political operator will easily exploit these.
3) Johnson has refused an offer of an electoral pact with the Brexit Party. This means that the Conservatives will go head to head with the party most likely to haemorrhage their vote in potentially every constituency. This will be crucial, especially in marginal seats. As we saw with Peterborough, this split cost a potential leave MP a seat. The other impact would be former Labour votes in the north will have a more palatable voting option with TBP, rather than the Tories. Essentially the Tories will be unable to win any former Labour seats.
Labour will fare the worst and I expect a total collapse in their vote outside the cities. The Liberals too are worried that the traditionally remain university towns will now have smaller student population come the election. I suspect though, there will be campaigns run to encourage both voting registration and to delay the return home till after Thursday.
4) In Scotland I suspect the Tories will pretty much lose all of their seats. Dog-whistle politics and socialism are effective weapons here and the SNP have been ramping up their ‘Independence’ rhetoric. I expect a big push for a second referendum. The Liberals could potentially do well there, especially with those Scots fed up with Nicola Sturgeon. Ironically the areas where the Tories would have had a chance, such as the fishing communities will now vote TBP, as Johnson’s deal betrays the fishermen contrary to what he said. His deal will come under intense scrutiny up to the election. In Scotland we could be looking at a sizeable return for the Liberals.
5) In Wales the Tories will struggle and this could be prime ground for the TBP. I don’t expect the Conservatives to garner much support, and I fully expect the Labour vote to collapse. With Labour now reliant on clutching at straws, hoping to farm brainwashed youngsters or EU citizens it shows how desperate and afraid they are. This behaviour is very telling and I could see Labour’s overall vote ending up in the ‘teens’.
6) Northern Ireland: the DUP and wider unionism will be in shock over Johnson’s betrayal in his deal with the EU. With the EU effectively annexing NI with Johnson’s consent, I suspect this will further polarise the vote and more people will vote for the DUP than ever before. Additionally with the introduction of imposed abortion laws, the DUP (the opposers of this change) may gain votes from traditionally conservative Catholic families due to this. A full compliment of DUP MPs will impact a hung Parliament. With the relationship between the DUP and Tories at it lowest since the Anglo Irish Agreement, this time I suspect the rift will be permanent. In the event of a hung Parliament, if you were a DUP MP, would you support Johnson? I certainly wouldn’t.
7) Johnson has no intention of ‘draining the swamp’. He is no UK Donald Trump. He has welcomed the Remainer trouble-maker MPs back into the fold. This is another warning to anyone thinking that Johnson wants a proper Brexit. This, in my opinion is another calamitous error on his campaign teams part. Knowing the public’s seething anger towards these Brexit wreckers, what type of reaction does he expect? Does he think people will just vote for them because they have a blue rosette?
After Grieve, Soubry et al the public have had enough of these types. Why banish them from the fold to begin with when you never had any intention to get rid of them? Some remainers MPs like Rudd have wisely decided not to stand. As for the prodigals, even Douglas Carswell has identified this as an error. The comments section alone are worth a look. What will the constituents make of the Tories standing the same Brexit wreckers? This is sheer arrogance, I certainly would not vote for them as a leaver; and looking at the candidate selection mistake May made with the Brecon election, it seems Johnson is following suit.
8) Just like May before him, Johnson seems obsessed with polls. If I were Conservative Central Office I would be concerned with this. This drop is before campaigning has begun. When Johnson is exposed to a proper debate, and when the full implications of his treaty come into the open public domain, his vote share will tumble I could see the Tory voting percentage down to 26%. Our election choices are freedom, servitude or remain. If I were Nigel Farage I would be relishing facing Johnson in a live TV debate. We could be heading for a hung parliament unless Johnson does a deal with Farage. There are going to be big shocks in this election and it seems no lessons have been learnt for 2017.
Time to relax and grab the popcorn friends.
Blowed if I know what Boris actually wanted at the start. Think back to his leadership campaign. Who supported him. Who stood against and dropped out. It looked like he actually preferred clean break. Then of course he did have to hold his party together so could not be too obviously anti article 50. He could not come straight out with it that ‘no deal’ was best. Then he had to cope with the wily EU negotiators. I’d say that was where he went wrong. If he actually wanted a clean break surely he could have TOLD THEM Mays BRINO is dead, and never would have done for us. Instead he started saying he preferred ‘a deal’. He is a politician after all. As the article says he has probably tripped up badly. It has left the UK in a perilous position.
Here is an article by Peter Hitchens who has been uncannily right about so many things. Ii confirms what many of us always maintained, that Boris was always pro EU. He certainly didn’t try very hard to stop himself from being “thwarted” by remainers.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7070715/PETER-HITCHENS-did-warn-Marshmallow-Lady.html
I was told yesterday by someone working for TBP that they will be fielding a candidate in every constituency. Tomaz is right and I can understand Flyer’s frustration, but what this does is increase determination. We like to think we can hunker down and let it go over our heads but we all know that everyone will be affected. It now becomes a game of exposure where none of the Establishment parties are friends. If I were to predict anything, not my forte, then I would say a lot more young people will start questioning the establishment and then the authorities will start restricting Freedom of Speech. A viscous cycle and the first signs of a revolution already seen elsewhere. Yes it already happens but when does the penny drop and the buxom soprano start singing? Maybe that’s the time to hunker down.
The Brexit Party is due to launch its election campaign today.
I agree with this article, this is all dangerously unpredictable and I’m beginning to wonder if that wasn’t always part of the plan, all just plain theatre.
Unfortunately, I’ve lost interest in politics, I’d say politicians are a mixture of evil, incompetent and naive people. Things have gone too far now after so many years of EU membership and creeping, insidious globalisation, this will not end well and will only get worse before they get better. We’ve probably gained nearly two million potentially hostile immigrants since we voted to leave the EU, we Brits will be usurped of political control very soon.
We’re headed for some very nasty times and in the very near future, at my age I’ll probably be long gone before they are over. So much for politics, I’d prefer to focus my attention elsewhere.
I warned everyone including people in UKIP and BXP the moment Boris allowed the Benn Act to become law what his plan was: to put on a show of himself as the tragic Brexit hero who did everything he could to deliver a real Brexit, but was thwarted by nasty Remainers in Parliament at every turn. The fact that he allowed the Benn Act to become law (he could easily have stopped it by refusing Queen’s Consent, since it affected the Royal Prerogative, or, failing that, Royal Assent) should have been a clue: he was never sincere, it was always his plan to “lose” his “fight for Brexit” and the Benn Act was his last line of defence — he only wanted to be able to blame someone else for his “failure”. Unfortunately, all the Brexiteers with the clout to call Boris out on his fraud and hold him to account, failed to do so. I could’t get my analysis published anywhere, although I did circulate it as far and wide as I could. I did say then that it was necessary to hold Boris to account immediately, before he established himself as the pro-Brexit hero in the public eye, as after that, anyone opposing him would be seen as an anti-Brexit-hero party pooper. I think it is now too late and that Boris’ gambit will prove successful. It is now a 3-way anti-Brexit charade: Lab=2nd ref., Lib=revoke, Cons=Vassalage Treaty. No one can break that Brexit thwarting alliance now, in which Lab and Lib will “lose” and Cons will “win” a landslide. BXP will stand in the election but it will most likely not win a single seat, let alone the majority needed for them to deliver Brexit. Even a king-making minority for BXP would be insufficient, as all the others will enter an anti-Brexit coalition before the Cons will ever make a pact with BXP. If you watched Nigel’s LBC recent interview with Trump, Nigel was trying to persuade Trump to lean on Boris and the message I got from the interview is that Trump realizes Boris’ deal is crap but also realizes that even he can’t persuade Boris to deliver a proper Brexit.
My concern is that the Longworth Farage and Tice all sing from the same hymn sheet for the duration of the campaign and that rumours of only fielding 30 or 40 candidates are incorrect. They are all Tories after all!
Maybe tomorrow I will rise and this will all be over. No it will just be starting. TBP will field a candidate in every seat. No more tactical voting no more prisoners and no more lies. A good article and in the next five weeks people will be told just what ‘good old Boris’ has done.
First the Conservatives then the LibDems, the Labour fanatics will kill themselves.
Yes Freedom and ice cold anger.
“What if the public don’t like his BRINO deal and want a clean break? ”
17.4 million voted to leave the EUSSR not for a deal, in other words a clean break with full independence.
The only party which is standing on this platform is UKIP. The quisling The Brexit Corporation which is not opposed to immigration and further islamization cannot be trusted to deliver the result for which the nation voted. UKIP has clear manifesto promises unlike the quisling The Brexit Corporation serving the interests of multinational finance.
And Richard Braine on you tube in yesterdays Independance Daily. What an excellent speaker he is in support of a WTO exit. He demolished Boris’ BRINO section by section. Will the voting public see through the MSM and the Party Lines?
There’s a tried and trusted formula that’s worked right down the African Continent. Been studying it for years.
FREEDOM. We must embark on our struggle for freedom immediately.
Obviously freedom is only freedom if it is offered by the correct party , (Looks like the Brexit Party at the moment.) The Tories and their acolytes such as labour lib dems etc, are proven agents of the oppressive colonial power across the channel seeking to enslave us.
This accurately describes the situation we now find ourselves in and needs to be taken seriously.
Free Britain.
I know to some extent what you are saying Michael, having visited West Africa as a merchant seaman 1953/62 and witnessed Nigeria, Gold Coast (Ghana) and Sierra Leone, plus some French and probably Portuguese colonies gain their Freedom following MacMillan’s “Wind of Change” surrender speech and I believe his abandonment of participation in “East of Suez” affairs.
But such has been the UK “conditioning” by the EU and the olé give conspiracy of MSM Parliament and the rest of the Establishment, that I don’t believe the average Brit has the least concept of what Colonialism means and certainly don’t perceive it applies to them and what the word FREEDOM means in that context .
Correct me if I am wrong, but I seem to remember in the East African connection crowds of people rhythmically dancing and chanting the word “”Uluru” which I took to mean Freedom.
For the life of me I cannot visualise such spirit being displayed in this country
Drat. Rodger I do believe you are right!
I can remember a school cleaner, a nice enough old man, leaning on his broom and in answer to the question “What does freedom mean?” telling us sixth formers, (This was in Bulawayo, S. Rhodesia) “When freedom comes we’ll be able to walk into the shops and take anything we want because everything will be free!”
However we do somehow need to convey to voters that we’ve lost our freedom and been colonised, that if we were running our own country we’d be able to trade with the world and become rich and powerful again.
We are shackled to a giant black steel ball with ‘EU’ painted on it!
Stand by for project fear to go into warp mode. Despite the MSM trying to airbrush it out of existence TBP must go full throttle on how abysmal that Boris deal is and explain that it would make the UK a satellite state of the EU. Most people are bored rigid with hearing about it and do not realise it is an expensive betrayal of what we voted for when we voted for our independence. They must be shocked out of any complacency and make sure that they cast their vote to let our politicians know that we know what we want and why.
Warped is indeed tjhe word that describes this whole parcel of conspiratorial rogues Ceri
“Most people do not realise it is an expensive betrayal of what we voted for”.
Damn right. The ONS stats for 2018 show every soul in the country paying 148 quid net for EU membership, if I recall Jeff Taylor correctly. And then, as Tim Martin keeps pointing out, we get hammered with over 10 000 tariffs.
No wonder we have poverty.
Can’t fault the logic.
If you are correct and the PM does push his ‘deal’ during the election then I imagine you may well be right with the outcome you are suggesting but it might be flummoxed if a No Deal Brexiteer like myself has nowhere else to go i.e. if the Brexit Party decide not to contest the seat. What happens then?
But again if you are correct, the PM is a fool to discount No Deal as there is every reason to return to it at least as a possibility because there are no pressures from other parties not to do so.
“When Johnson is exposed to a proper debate, and when the full implications of his treaty come into the open public domain, his vote share will tumble…”
As I said, looks like it has started, the Trump interview unpicks Johnson’s BRINO treaty from the word go. The bad deal seed is planted with the public. The Telegraph are trying to spin the interview as an endorsement of Johnson. It won’t work. Let’s see what the next opinion poll brings after this interview. Trump even said Johnson should form a pact with Farage. Deaf ears I feel. Farage has a press conference at 10am tomorrow. The pressure is now on Johnson and his deal. Farage has played a blinder and it’s all setup for the TV debates.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1198337/donald-trump-news-Nigel-farage-LBC-interview-EU-brexit-deal-Italy