Single by-elections such as in Newport West don’t always reveal a national trend, nor can they be a reliable predictor of future voting behaviour, but that doesn’t mean one can’t draw some conclusions from them.
Although by-elections usually have lower turnouts, largely because people do not see it as an election for a government, the Newport turnout of 37% is on the low side whichever way you look at it. It was an expected consequence of the disillusionment of people with politics. The lower turnout meant that the Labour vote more than halved to 43% of the 2017 total with a similar effect on the Conservative vote (40%). If this tells us anything it is that not voting changes nothing. Being angry and staying at home simply means that the status quo will remain.
In this by-election there were no new alternatives along the lines suggested by the COI (Coalition of Independents). Had there been an independent and Brexit supporting candidate on the left of the political divide in this staunchly Labour stronghold, this introduction of a viable and interesting alternative may have been enough to get people out to vote, and to vote for the independent option. We’ll not know, of course, until the hypothesis has been tested, but we can draw the conclusion that current alternatives failed to attract support.
Chief amongst the lessons learned, was that UKIP is not the answer. Neil Hamilton, a high-profile candidate and a member of the Welsh Assembly, stood in a 56% leave constituency and tanked. The rabidly anti-Islam For Britain party along with the spectacularly unsuccessful Democrats and Veterans Party barely registered, and we had a clear confirmation that the Liberal Democrats are as irrelevant as they ever were, losing yet another deposit along with the usual rag bag of other parties. Whilst Neil Hamilton has not always been a paragon of virtue, it’s hard to ascribe this catastrophic by-election defeat to former misdemeanours, as he was elected to the Welsh Assembly and became leader of the UKIP group.
The clear inference is that UKIP is finished as an electoral force all the while Gerard Batten is leader and until such time as a credible, personable and intellectually competent leader appears. There is little sign of that happening and with each passing year UKIP’s potential wanes. Every election over the last couple of years has been a disaster, yet the faithful have remained faithful. This, however, must be the last straw.
The result also confirms that either the party branding or the party ideology of the main two parties is incredibly powerful. With a parliament full of liars and traitors, an incompetent Labour leader who prefers to consort with terrorists and a Prime Minister who persistently and deliberately lies without flinching, people can still bring themselves to vote for them. Despite the low turnout, despite the other options available of UKIP, Plaid Cymru, LibDem etc. Those that did vote still chose the tribal option. The question remains though, whether it is the party or the ideology that prevailed?
As European elections are now a virtual certainty, we’ll get an opportunity to test the new party of Nigel Farage. As the European elections exclude independents, by virtue of the electoral system used, I’ll be supporting and voting for the Brexit Party, having already registered formally as a supporter. Will it though, become an election force for a general election that may happen anytime from May 2019 to May 2022?
Even if it were able to build, in time, the infrastructure needed for a national political party, it would not be able to contest every seat, whereas independents could. Whichever way you look, there is a role for a top-quality independent candidate, vetted and approved by an independent body, who would reflect the dominant political ideology of the constituency in question. Independents have stood before, sometimes committed individuals, sometimes for a predominant local cause, but never as a part of an apolitical national organisation, solely concerned with getting the right people for the job.
Such an option would provide something unique, never offered before in a general election and it might just be enough to persuade the disenchanted and politically homeless.
If you think this may be a way forward, a way to break the dominance of the two-party system, or at least think it’s worth a try, then do register with our website so we can keep you abreast of developments.
The future: the same people “counting” the votes as always ever there was. Understand?
Spot on, David. I’ve grown weary (as an ex-UKIP Parliamentary Campaign Manager myself), of arguing with committed Kippers who refuse to accept the fact that UKIP is finished as a political force.. I see hordes of disenchanted UKIP supporters, activists and voters switching to the Brexit Party, as well as Tories and especially those Tories who went Tory -> UKIP – > Tory. I left in 2017 – the Stoke By-Election farce was the last straw for me personally – the TR issue has now pushed them beyond the pale.
I like the COI idea – I tried to get an Independent platform off the ground here in Rutland to challenge the Tories on 2nd May. Sadly – it crashed and burned – see ‘The Richard Alderman affair – Google’…Personally, I’ve signed up as a Candidate for the Brexit Party and am pinning my hopes for the future of this country on them…
‘Weary of arguing with committed kippers’ well the clue is right there, they do not accept what you say, and want to stay and fight. Seems admirable to me.
‘ I see hordes of disenchanted UKIP supporters…….’, looks like you don’t have to argue with them (but they are being replaced although it will take time)
‘especially those Tories who went Tory -> UKIP – > Tory.’ Quite.
TR again. John Bercow in the last couple of weeks has done vastly more damage to this country than a million TRs (with petty rap sheets but performing what many regard as positive actions in relation to a national scandal). Taking into account also the fact that the decision to block the democratic will of the people was passed entirely on the vote of one tagged MP who really has got a serious conviction, TR ‘beyond the pale’ is laughable.
Good luck with the Brexit Party, but to me it’s just another vote splitter. As far as independents go it didn’t work out too well in Thurrock recently.
Broadly backing David Allen’s analysis here. His is the first comment on the Newport result which matches my impression that UKIP’s result was very disappointing (BTW I’m an activist). Maybe not the best idea to stand a semi-notorious ex-Tory in a working class area, but our failure to translate the Leave vote into the UKIP one at such a time was shocking. I also back David’s COI idea; many voters are understandably totally hacked off with party politics.
George,
I Agree. But Never parachute candidates . Voters value this above all else.
I feel like a ‘Johny-come-lately’ commenting now as the party moves on to the next Article on this fabulous site which never seems to slow.
But I cannot resist.
David you are very much needed as a foil in our search for meaning. I too have become absorbed at times in my own ideas and righteousness. One thing is for sure the more I come to know, the less sure I become, as knowledge leads to the realisation of what little we do know.
I believe you are right that the party system will eventually fail. But now is not the time. To my mind we will end up with a form of Localism and, yes, independent representation. But that is my prediction and I will work out the steps to get there. You are in my opinion trying to run before we can all walk.
With respect, genuinely, your article is opportunist in pushing your own agenda.
No, there is, in principle, nothing wrong with that. However you then make rude attacks on Neil Hamilton. I remember the episode you refer to and it is well below the belt from you. If all our politicians were as approachable as level headed, fair minded and consistent as Mr Hamilton, we would not be in the mess we are in.
The reason the Newport West by-election was a disappointment was, in my opinion, because of apathy on the part of the electorate and a lack of focused canvassing on the politicians. When I say focused I mean focused on the psychology of the electorate. So in that sense you have some credibility. There was no change in Newport West because of apathy and tribalism.
But that does not warrant your attacks on UKIP or Neil Hamilton, attacks which are not helpful in understanding the way forward and no I do not agree with your way forward.
And so you have pulled the very trick that the rogue Ideologists pull, you have taken a truth and twisted it. You have tried to pervert the true understanding of the event to support your concept of how things should be.
The Brexit party may well be a rising star with Nigel Farage but UKIP will outshine any other ‘alternative’ party around. Why because they are sticking to their guns, without fear of the Establishment or the MSM.
It may be better if you aim your intellect at the real enemies of our society.
Well said Kim.
Is it any wonder the turn-out’s low when it’s pretty obvious that no matter who you vote for they can’t be relied upon to carry out their manifesto pledges. If the Leave vote can be overturned after a massive turn-out then so can anything. All trust in politicians has been lost. Millions of people who don’t normally vote took part in the referendum seeking change and have been ignored, lied to and treated with contempt. From now on low turn-outs will be the norm but the same old parties will still be taking turns at government, unless change is brought about…one way or another.
Gerard Batten on Sky News Friday with Dermot Murnaghan, with not a mention of the I word.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS9QvBDCOoA
Mr Allen, didn’t you back Bolton? nuff said…
Low turnout, Labour and the Conservatives lose more than half of their vote, bur the UKIP doubles it’s votes and triples it’s percentage and you think that is a catastrophe?
If you did not win it is a catastrophe . Even if you lose by one vote it is a catastrophe because you have LOST and have no power to change anything .
That’s a rather unkind and unhelpful view of the Newport West electorate. ‘They must be dim because they didn’t vote, or didn’t vote for my preference’. I think you’ll find low turnouts are routine in by-elections and even worse in council elections, all over the country so, it isn’t just Newport. I agree with you that UKIP needed to do well, but they didn’t. Blaming the electorate won’t change that.
Well it should have been their preference not just mine as they were a 56/44 Leave constituency (estimated). This wasn’t just A.N. Other by-election but a critical snapshot of the view of the electorate at a critical time.
A little unkind perhaps but I’m just frustrated at the lack of awareness and fecklessness of the Newport West electorate. I want them to help themselves. They had power to make a difference this time as a bellwether but stayed in the pen.
All that apart though, the people who did turn out voted for more Lab/Con in the majority. The ‘why’ of that seems to have been overlooked in the press, I wouldn’t have voted for either but the majority did. I would not vote either for a COI and just staying away is not an option how many ‘spoiled’ votes were there because that is an indication of protest for whatever reason.
First place I looked when the disappointing results came out… only 100 spoiled papers so not a hidden protest there at all. I guess a lot can change
in a town in 180 years (70 years of welfarism is enough.)
As a member of UKIP, my view is not yours ! Thankfully we all still have the right to hold personal views upon Individuals and Parties and that is why I do not take offence. – I would only suggest that as ‘Independence Daily’ your opinions against UKIP, is not only foolish and incorrect, it is also eminently disloyal to an Independence Party. It is bad enough having so many Brexit groups, all in competition with one-another, so that ‘Divide to Conquer’ is gifted to Remain forces !
This is a moment to ask serious questions to ‘Independence Daily’ ….. Which group or Party do you support ? ….. In support of Party X, do you see it as sensible to attack fellow Brexiteers ? – A parallel would be, British and Commonwealth forces being in opposition to American forces in WW2 ! ….. Unless this blog can answer these questions honestly, there is little point in our combined operations against our EU membership, and we may as well all join the ‘Unthinking Classes’ !
Mike, you make a valid point with so many Brexit related parties and/or initiatives some coordination is needed. It’s quite an interesting and novel concept, but as you say there’s no point in competing against each other. Will egos allow, I wonder? Of course you are entitled to your view regarding UKIP’s electoral chances, but the Newport West result, in the current climate was dreadful. Also check out the last 20, or 30, or 40 UKIP election results and the story is the same. Had Neil Hamilton won, or had run them close, I would have concurred with you, but the point of parties is to win votes and win elections and UKIP simply isn’t doing that. I hope it can, though I suspect the leadership will need to change for that to happen.
Thank you for commenting.
“Chief amongst the lessons learned, was that UKIP is not the answer.” “Our Website”
Good luck with that.
Not everyone is daft enough to follow the pied piper or a ragtag bunch of ‘independents’ who sooner or later in my experience turn out to be Tories. Twice bitten, four times shy. They will learn. .
“rabidly anti-Islam For Britain party”! Rabid because it recognises that our country faces the greatest existential threat of the century? Now is not the time to deal with that threat as it requires a clean exit from the EU but deal with it we must if our country is to be saved for our descendants.
I suggest a short break visiting the former cotton and woollen towns of the North as an eye-opener.
I had a good debate with a For Britain supporter a couple of days ago. Her main concern was that laws were not being applied fairly with regard to FGM / Sharia / homophobic attacks / knife crime and that freedom of speech was being restricted.
She at first sounded extreme to me but in reality hers were genuine concerns once I looked more deeply . The fact is that it’s largely police resources that are too small to cope, leading to a sense of fear, fear justified because crime is soaring and prosecutions are too slow . That’s Theresa May’s fault, created by her policies as Home Secretary and PM.
In reality FGM is a serious crime already, Sharia Law has no authority in the UK and homophobic attacks + knife crime are already illegal. Freedom of speech is in reality not THAT bad, but not as free as the US, where frankly any nut can say what they like. Here you have to follow a few rules.
If we start focusing on putting our own house in order, which means obeying the rule that justice needs to be seen to be done, then we need to find money from areas like the EU budget and foreign aid and spend it to enforce already existing laws and control too-high , non-assimilated migration and the fears , real and perceived, that that brings.
That means Brexit, of course.
So FB / TBP and UKIP are not THAT far apart, aside from the extreme edges of the organisations.
That can be solved by internal disciplinary procedures from within the parties.
There are clearly issues that need to be addressed, but the disappointment is that these fringe parties simply aren’t politically astute. Ranting and raving from the sidelines achieved nothing. You would be mistaken to think that your concerns and many people’s concerns are shared in high places, but the art of politics is getting things done, actually making changes, in an environment that isn’t usually helpful. I heartily recommend you read Celcius 7/7 by Michael Gove. That’s how political analysis and solution provision should be approached.
Sorry, should have read ‘aren’t shared in high places’.
Hi David, We have sparred in the past, particularly over Bolton, however I shall take your advice, read Celsius 7/7 and read your COI proposition.
It always makes sense to consider alternatives to the current political position and since you have made an effort to do that I will read what you have proposed with an open mind.
K
I first heard AMW speak a couple of years ago and was quite impressed. She was making valid points. Since then I have shared many platforms with her during the last UKIP leadership contest and the worry for me was that the rhetoric didn’t change. Also missing were any solutions. On one occasion, I asked her, as a fellow speaker, how she would achieve what she was speaking about at the time, but she had no solutions. Electorally FB simply won’t register as it didn’t in Newport.
Yes it was sad to see such a low turn out again. Also sad that people still seem to be voting along historical lines which today are no longer valid, the world has changed and simply voting for a party because your grand father did is not appropriate. I see
Labour and the Conservatives lost large percentages of support while UKIP doubled, granted the total votes cast are still small but going in the correct direction. I do not accept the negative comments about the UKIP leader nor that the party is dead, membership is growing and as more evidence of the Con/Lab electoral lies come out I think more and more people will vote UKIP in the local elections in May and in an early general election if called.
No, no, no, Nigel.
They’re voting for fear of the Other Lot getting in, nothing to do with their grandfather.
It shows that Newport is a town full of unthinking sheep who would rather sit on their backsides and mutter about how the MPs are messing up Brexit
than stroll a few hundred yards to their nearest polling station and vote for a guaranteed rock solid leaver. As they can’t think past their next
Happy Meal instead they get another Remainer to further thwart our exit.
A Ukip win there would have been a great shot across the bows of the chittering fools in Wastemonster, given credibility and momentum to the party,
and put Newport in the limelight for days. Guess Labour constituencies are more prone to this stupid tribalism and are happy to be dumped on by the
metropolitan effete.
This should have been their preference not just mine as they were a 56/44 Leave constituency (estimated). This wasn’t just A.N. Other by-election
but a critical snapshot of the view of the electorate at a critical time.
A little unkind perhaps but I’m just frustrated at the lack of awareness and fecklessness of the Newport West electorate. I want them to help
themselves. They had power to make a difference this time as a bellwether but stayed in the pen.
I take the strongest possible exception to your statement that UKIP is finished as an electoral force. Not only that our Leader Gerard Batten is all of the things you cynically purport to wish for; he is credible, personable and intellectually competent. Watch his interview with the German born serpent Matt Frei on LBC.
As for your COI, i wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole.
Hear hear. Fed up with all this Batten -bashing. Sure there’s an agenda behind it.
you are correct Mary the writer is a tory in disguise.
Same here. As I’ve said before, Nigel was a shooting star but Gerard is our rock. He’s put the Party back on a financial basis, he’s brought in thousands more members and his speeches though less spectacular than Nigel’s are more believable. You can trust Gerard.
I’m simply pointing out electoral reality, it’s a bit odd to take exception to historical fact. It is what it is and time has moved on. Still, we all have different opinions. I’m just providing different options.