Ed ~ Viv’s “Daily Brexit Betrayal” will be back tomorrow, usual time, usual place.
It would appear to me that the two-party system in Parliament is in the process of being destroyed, mainly by Brexit. By a distinct majority, voters decided in the referendum three years ago that we should leave the European Union. But it wasn’t a unanimous decision. There was a significant minority who wanted to stay in the bloc, and that minority is furious that it lost the referendum.
It is now demanding a ‘People’s vote’, a second referendum, confirmatory ballot, losers’ vote or call it whatever you like, in an effort to stop the Brexit process and in the hope that voters in the UK will have changed their minds; at least some senior Remainers are freely admitting that. However, whenever a Remainer is interviewed, he or she tends to claim that the country is coming round to their way of thinking, although how they know, that is never made clear.
But a second referendum will not work, mainly because whichever side loses will demand yet another vote, the best of three or the best of five, and if the Leave side wins again, a demand will be made for the original vote to be observed. The only way a definitive argument could be made is if the Leave side, not Remain, won by a landslide. That might shut the Remainers up for a while, but I doubt it will be permanent.
Then there’s the question of the question. The only possible question I might support is exactly the same as the 2016 referendum, but with the Remainers arguing that we didn’t know what we were voting for then, I doubt if that will satisfy them a second time.
Should it be a three-way referendum – Leave under WTO, Leave with the WAB or Remain? I watched Suzanne Evans as the EU results came in on Sunday evening and as Emily Thornberry suggested this, Suzanne said that would split the vote. “Oh no,” she said. “We’re wise to that one.”
I’m not sure I agree with her as I think the WAB has been so totally discredited nobody in their right minds would vote for it. Such is my opinion and readers of this site may agree with me, but perhaps Mr & Mrs Joe Public might be tempted to vote for it just to get the matter done and dusted, which is what many people are keen on.
In her time as Prime Minister, Theresa May has always been adamant that there won’t be a second referendum and whereas some might call her pig-headed and stubborn, I have to respect her for sticking to that decision. I think she’s right. (It’s about the only thing she got right!)
But there is still a seismic shift in British politics. On the Remain side, we’ve seen a surge in support for the LibDems and Greens, and the formation of a new party, CHUK, which has drawn support from both Conservatives and Labour.
On the Leave side, both of the two main political parties in the House of Commons are split, with members on both sides supporting Leave. And of course, The Brexit Party has surged into a commanding lead at the polls. Nigel has said the party would do just as well in a General Election, and although I would imagine the EU elections have shown a protest vote, he may well be right.
However, there is no way the government will go for a General Election under the new leader, although the Opposition will be screaming for it. The incoming Prime Minister will see that he/she could lose a significant number of MPs. With the Brexit question polarising the country, there will be Leave areas which will not return a Remain MP.
Nigel has said that if we’re not out by October 31, he’ll stand The Brexit Party in the next General Election. But he may have to wait three years for it, until 2022, and an awful lot can happen in the meantime.
With the results of the European elections coming in, it seems that the EU is split in very similar ways. Groups like the Eurosceptic Europe for Freedom and Direct Democracy on one side and pro-European Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe and the European People’s Party are both doing well. I am firmly convinced that the bloc won’t be here for much longer. Unfortunately, the volatile Europeans may resort to violent revolution to get rid of their masters.
It’ll be interesting to see what our new clutch of MEPs do in Brussels, especially with the majority of them Brexiteers. Farage has promised to cause havoc in the debating chamber, with moves like refusing to agree the budget and voting down other essential legislation.
Nigel and his cohorts have suggested they could cause absolute mayhem in Europe, although I’m sure there would be a temptation for him to look at the huge salary afforded to the President and muse on whether it’s worth making lots of waves and ‘going native’ as some UKIP MEPs have done.
I wonder if there is any mechanism for the EU to decide to eject a member state …
It’s a pity that UKIP was very thoroughly trounced, following the party’s successes five years ago. It is now obvious that there was a crying need for a champion to accede to the results of the referendum and take us out of the EU.
And it is such a shame that Gerard Batten didn’t grasp the opportunity that Farage has taken.