Written by Briefings For Brexit
Ed: This important article was first published in Briefings For Brexit and we re-publish it with kind permission. While the permutations of what Ms May will offer and what the MPs will vote for are growing by the day, and while our own MSM are relying on ‘sources’ and leaks to create click-bait rather than clarity, it is valuable to learn what journalists on the continent have found out, using the same ‘Brussels sources’.
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The well informed French financial newspaper, Les Echos (roughly equivalent to the Financial Times) has published an article disclosing the ‘choreography’ for the next few weeks which, it believes, is aimed to trap the House of Commons into approving the Withdrawal Agreement with no substantive changes.
On both sides of the Channel, says Les Echos, there are ‘indications’ of a strategy to push the Commons into making a choice at the very last moment between May’s Withdrawal Agreement – ‘with tiny adjustments’ – or ‘jumping into the abyss’ with a No Deal Brexit. The first part of this strategy is to try to frighten MPs by announcing that the EU27 are actively preparing for a No Deal, and making statements such as that by Jean-Claude Juncker that he was ‘not very optimistic’ of avoiding it.
The second part is to quash any expectations of a breakthrough in the negotiations, especially over the Irish Backstop.
The third element of the strategy is to send ‘modest signals’ that nevertheless negotiations are advancing, so as to keep up observers’ hopes. Hence, the communiqué following the meeting last Wednesday between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker that there were certain points of ‘convergence’: even though the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened, there might be the possibility of certain ‘guarantees’ concerning the backstop by changes to wording in the Political Declaration. Philip Hammond has already spoken of progress.
Then finally, as 29 March looms, Parliament will be subject to ‘the electric shock of a binary choice’, and is expected to approve the Withdrawal Agreement with an accompanying legal text that simply commits the EU to negotiate the future relationship post-Brexit as quickly as possible. An EU Summit at the end of March could then formally approve the new text. Brexit would then be delayed by several weeks to enable ratification.
If Les Echos is correct, then the British government and the EU are working in tandem to bounce MPs into approving a very bad deal which they rejected with a resounding majority only weeks ago.
There will be nothing based on the ‘Malthouse compromise’ devised by a group of Remainer and Brexiteer Tory MPs. There will be no major change in the Withdrawal Agreement, nor to the indefinite nature of the Backstop that keeps the UK as a vassal state of the EU.
Apparently the EU and Theresa May are united in contempt for the intelligence of MPs, who are expected like naughty toddlers to swallow the vile medicine on offer at the third attempt due to an inability to remember why they wouldn’t take it the first time.
The only sugar on the pill would be a promise to undertake negotiations on the post-Brexit relationship without delay. But this relationship will be based on the Political Declaration, which in itself contains some very unpalatable elements, not least the surrender of our Fisheries and a customs union which would put paid to an independent trade policy.
As BfB has shown (re-published here in INDEPENDENCE Daily here and here), the Withdrawal Agreement puts the UK in a very weak position, allowing the EU to set the terms and the timetable for negotiations on the future relationship.
If Les Echos is right, Theresa May and her officials are going into this with their eyes wide open. The PM’s announcement that the meaningful vote will not take place until mid-March bears out the story.
MPs must not be duped by these cynical tactics. They should respect their constituents and their mandate and stand firm by rejecting any ‘deal’ that fails to address in full the many unacceptable elements of the Withdrawal Agreement. Otherwise they might as well shut up shop and go home, since they will have no further role to play in the government of the United Kingdom.
Anyone that says they will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement once the Backstop issue has been resolved will be voting to put Britain into a far worse position than were were when we were members of the EU (which of course we still are).
So, Jacob Rees-Mogg, now I can see what YOU really are.
A traitor to the British people who thought, as did I, that you were one of the few honourable men in Parliament. You are no different at all from the arch Quisling herself, you are a piece of work, steeped in treachery and have sold your soul for your political career.
I hope you rot in hell.
A good and simple article which allows me some self-indulgence.
What comes across in this observational piece is that, in the end, the whole process of Brexit, rather than being a complex, detailed problem of negotiation by organisations, intellectuals and political representatives, is nothing more than you would expect from any school playground.
The Bully, played by the EU, and the smarmy double talking s**t, played by HM Government.
“The British government and the EU are working in tandem”, well who would have guessed??!?
“To bounce MPs into approving a very bad deal”, yesss but hang on. Let us just remind ourselves who owns the sovereignty of the UK. Oh yes! the electorate.
Let us all be perfectly clear the electorate want out and they want their sovereignty back. No, they demand their sovereignty back, and if those weasels in Parliament don’t get it back asap, those weasels will be in big trouble, and I mean Big Trouble.
“Otherwise they might as well shut up shop and go home, since they will have no further role to play in the government of the United Kingdom.”, I like that last sentence. It is what we always knew, you know, Parliament as a Regional Office.
Well it is not my last sentence. The ‘bully’ as Orwell rightfully identified in 1944, is the Fascist. Anyone who considers the EU behaviour will see them for what they are, a bunch of Fascists.
They will, of course fail, that is a given, but the longer we leave, leaving the more painful will be the downfall. (We owe it to all the other Europeans).
You may have noticed a little snippet in the news, Estonia’s EKRE party is likely to upset the status quo. You guessed it, the country is losing its identity. That is brought about by the imposed rules of the EU regarding immigration. Estonia are a net beneficiary of EU membership. That says a lot. It says that, IT IS NOT ABOUT THE MONEY.
What does a bully do? He or she imposes on others. Well we have had enough and so have a lot of other true Europeans.
As for all the experts, intellectuals politicians and, well, all those clever dicks who should know better, consider 1930s Germany, and then repeat after me “Freedom is about self determination, Democracy and Liberty”.
“Come in number 4(Reich), your time is up!
Angry, no, incandescent, yes!
I think we can all now know for certain that May has no interest in getting us out of the EU and never has. She is a major part of our problem and should hang her head in shame at the damage she is doing to Britain. Her place in hell is waiting.
If our law on treason had not been watered down there might have been a gibbet waiting. There is good reason for a robust and effective law to deal with traitors and good reason for the death penalty.
It appears it may now be all down to the ERG group . They have it in their power to stop May’s WA (fudged or not). Their actions will either dispel what trust we had in their Brexit creditials forever or they can vote down May’s wretched deal and thus uphold the will of 17.4 million voters to live in a self-governing democracy once more. What’s it to be?
If you read all the news articles on Brexit there is the inbuilt assumption that the leave date is the be all and end all of the whole thing,if we do see May get her dreadful deal through do not expect the whole thing to go away. It will a very explosive time uk politics as those leave voters will be extremely anger,they will want revenge at the ballot box and we could find ourselves like Italy with a real anti EU party in power…hopefully UKIP
Perhaps it is time to look beyond party branding and instead seek to reinvigorate the basic constitutional contract between individual MPs and their respective constituencies.
That MPs are our servants put in temporary office to deliver on our behalf strictly in accordance with their respective individual manifestos, with failure to abide by their commitmemts subject to early recall by election.
It’s important to remember that “parliament” roughly translates as “talking shop” and in this modern age the need for MPs to physically gather in one place (Westminster) and therefore be physically remote from their constituents, has faded with the advent of communication technology starting with the venerable telephone and succeeded by the internet.
Practically speaking MPs could and arguably should spend the vast majority of their time in their constituenciesw, which will help focus their minds on local matters, which are after all the very essence of genuine political representation.
All power to you Fenlander. Many of us believe the Party system to be not only corrupt but also illegal. Many believe that an MP ought to be answerable to his constituents only, not to out-of-sight party string-pullers. I would take that a stage further: Any other employee would expect an annual performance review. Why should MPs expect to be able to do as they please for five years or more and NOT be reviewed annually?
I would like it to be UKIP. But not the ukip I know. This will probably upset one or two, but. It is a machine for destroying brilliance, initiative, original thought, or ambition. Farage was right to jump ship. He was about to be ground down, And this continues.
I’ve read article after article and comments, dozens brilliant , mostly accurate. some with genius. These people have been stuffed. By a combination of 6 factors :-
1. Bureaucratic adherence to overegged rules or constitution.Nit picking.
2. Over importance of the NEC, Only concerned with purity of mind soul and body. due to number 1
3. Far too much babbling about money..Given a good plan and the ability to carry it out , money will appear by magic.
4. Politics. Inevitably many will see it as a political ladder… That’d kill anything .
5 Excuses. We look for excuses evey where. Excuses are not reasons.
6 We all know this I must have typed it hundreds of times.
All these need smashing . One at a time or all together
It’s all still there and loving it. And trudging into oblivion
The extraordinary thing is, That the present circumstances are such that, the given proper guidance it can become useful, given the boiling pot that will soon become Britain.. But never with the UKIP we’ve got. [ although this all predicates GB hasn’t got anything new to say.in the next few weeks ]
TG Spokes Nigel always got his way with UKIP – what Nigel wanted he got. He did a brilliant job – nobody could have done it better. We owe him our eternal thanks. But he shaped UKIP around himself and when he stood down as leader UKIP was always going to have a succession problem being seen as a one man one issue party. Nigel got rid of any dissenters and particularly those who were as clever or cleverer than himself. Management of a party and succession planning were not one of his strong points.
It is my view that Nigel made some unforgiveable, whopping mistakes that damaged UKIP badly like saying ‘his job was done’ immediately after the referendum and calling for a second referendum.
Having said that, all political parties have succession problems after having a long serving successful leader at the helm.
UKIP is turning the corner and we are making good headway. We are not a one issue Party and we are here to stay. There is much work to be done. The big political parties are despised and Politics is moving in our populist direction. Lets pull together, get behind Gerard and do our best to attract talent to the Party and nuture them for the future.
I believe that GB is OK but more of a party manager than a party leader. Of course UKIP has been let down badly by NF seeking fame and fortune elsewhere whilst apparently doing his best to trash the party; e.g. Bolton.
I wish that I could have confidence in UKIP becoming the real opposition to government, Conservative or Labour. No criticism of the present activists intended.
hear hear Jake!